Health and Care Services

Richard Fuller Excerpts

Wednesday 3rd July 2013 Commons Chamber

[Mr Dorrell]

I will come on to the impact on pay later. My hon. Friend is right that the challenge antedates the election of this Government and that it increasingly looks beyond this Parliament, as did last week’s public expenditure announcements. There are specific challenges implicit in the Nicholson challenge for the coalition and for the Opposition. To my colleagues in the Conservative party, who sometimes ask why we have a ring fence around the national health service, I simply say, “Understand what you are asking.” We are already strapping ourselves to the mast indefinitely into the future of meeting a rise in demand of 4% per annum without substantial growth in real resources. Looking back, we see that the national health service has delivered a 1% efficiency gain trend rate over its first 60 years, and the national average for the rest of the economy is 2%. We are expecting the health and care system to deliver a 4% efficiency gain. To anyone believing that we are likely to be able to meet demand for health and care to acceptable standards against a background of reduced resources—in other words, more than a 4% efficiency gain year on year—I say, “Do the maths.” That is the challenge to the Conservative party.

[Richard Fuller (Bedford) (Con)]

Will my right hon. Friend give way?

[Mr Dorrell]

Will my hon. Friend forgive me if I complete the challenge so as to be even-handed, as the Chair of a cross-party Committee should be?

Some Labour Members may wish to look for ways to avoid the difficult questions posed by the Nicholson challenge, but we need to remember that if we were to try to meet demand without addressing any of the efficiency questions—to take it to the other extreme—we would need £5 billion a year of new money over and above keeping up with inflation. That is more than 1p on income tax year on year, or 6p on income tax in the lifetime of a Parliament, to meet demand in the health service, unless we address the Nicholson challenge.

The conclusion that the Committee puts to the House is that the Nicholson challenge is unavoidable. Anybody who takes any serious interest in health and care has to address it. Nobody seriously believes that any Government will put up income tax by 6p in the pound in the life of one Parliament simply to fund health and care, and nobody in my party seriously thinks that we can avoid meeting demand for health and care. If we cannot avoid meeting that demand, we have to deliver a 4% efficiency gain out of the service merely to allow it to live within the current real resource available to it. That is the Nicholson challenge, and it is why the Committee—from a cross-party standpoint—has said, from the beginning of this Parliament, that it is the most important challenge facing the health and care system.

[Richard Fuller]

I wish to challenge my right hon. Friend on the 4% efficiency requirement that is, essentially, the 4% increase in demand that we expect. I am a big believer that history is a good guide to the future, and I understand the changes in demography that will push that challenge. How much of the demand comes from a quantum increase in demand and how much from a price increase for the inputs into the health budget?

[Mr Dorrell]

I do not wish to detain the House for the whole of the time available for this debate, but my hon. Friend raises an important question about how that demand is made up. The interesting thing about the drivers of demand—rising expectations, the cost and availability of modern medicine and the implications of an increasingly elderly population—which each new Front-Bench spokesman reveals as a newly discovered truth, is that they were first discovered by Rab Butler when he became Chancellor of the Exchequer in 1951. He set up a commission to ask whether the health service was an insupportable burden. The conclusion reached then, and by every successive Government since, in this and in similar processes in other countries, is that demand can be met, but it requires a serious analysis of the nature of the demand and how resources are used effectively to deliver it.

There is a danger in discussing health and care as if they were purely an economic question, especially for those of us who have been employed in the Treasury—like you, Madam Deputy Speaker, and me. There is a danger of sounding like a Treasury Minister and implying that the economic questions are the only issues in this regard. I need only offer names to the House to demonstrate that economics is not the only issue here—Winterbourne View, Mid Staffordshire and Morecambe Bay. Our system faces huge challenges, not just to do with economics but in respect of the quality of service that is delivered on a daily basis. Put simply, it is not enough just to go on delivering the service as it is now because, too often, it fails. Implicit in the Nicholson challenge is the requirement to face profound quality challenges, as they exist in the system, at the same time as squaring the financial circle I have been describing. In some quarters, it is suggested that that is a counsel of despair—that the circle is unsquareable.

The Committee disagrees, which is why the report states, at paragraph 30:

“At a time when steadily rising demand for health and care services needs to be met within very modest real terms funding increases for the NHS and even tighter resource constraints on social care, the Committee remains convinced that the breadth and quality of services will only be maintained and improved through the full integration of commissioning activity across health and social care.”

In other words, it is the Committee’s cross-party view that it is the integration—the reimagining of what health and care need to look like—that is the answer to the questions posed both by the Nicholson challenge and the quality challenges implicit in the names that I mentioned. It is important to be clear why that is the Committee’s view.

Efficiency, as implicit in the context of the Nicholson challenge, is not just about buying a bit more cleverly or holding down costs. It is about understanding what the demand is that we are trying to meet and putting in place the structures—incidentally, I do not mean the management structures—for the delivery of care that are likely to be able to meet the demands placed on them, not over the last 50 years but over the next 20. It is reimagining and driving a process of change through the health and care system that is the only realistic challenge to the financial and quality challenges that I have articulated.

--- Later in debate ---

[Steve McCabe (Birmingham, Selly Oak) (Lab)]

I recognise that there is almost no prospect of a return to the 4% annual rises in the health economy that we had got used to, and the right hon. Member for Charnwood (Mr Dorrell) explained the impact on income tax of such a move. The Institute for Fiscal Studies reported that to return to that would require a budget freeze on every other Government Department for the foreseeable future, even allowing for significant growth in our economy. We have to recognise that the NHS will have to make do, therefore.

The NHS is currently halfway through finding efficiency savings of more than £16 billion up to 2016. The savings are coming primarily from pay restraint, administrative cuts and reductions in centrally determined payments. In the long run, pay restraint may lead to a shortage of essential staff and, of course, poor pay and conditions is a factor in the poor-quality social and residential care we already see. As my hon. Friend the Member for Worsley and Eccles South (Barbara Keeley) pointed out, social services directors say that reductions in payments to care providers are leading to a fall in the quality of the care they are able to commission, and that often leads to a cycle of admissions to hospital.

Although it is politically convenient to scapegoat administrators, even the Minister must recognise that there is a limit to efficiency savings in administration. In these circumstances, the decision to waste so much on a top-down reorganisation now looks a little stupid.

[Richard Fuller]

The hon. Gentleman has raised the issue of low pay in certain sectors. He will know from the evidence of the Select Committee report that 16 of the 42 trusts stated that pay amounts to at least 50% of the total cost pressures. Does he think there is a case throughout the NHS for looking at managing down the pay of the more highly paid, so that those on the bottom can get higher increases?

[Steve McCabe]

There is some merit in looking at that, but when the people at the top end are scarce, we must be careful not to lose them to other countries. That is a challenge.

Today’s announcement about charging foreign nationals was strange in the sense that it seems to undercut existing private providers such as BUPA. I am not quite clear how that will save money. I fear it is the kind of posturing that may well end up costing us money, rather than saving money.

Like others, I welcome the Chancellor’s decision to allocate £3.8 billion to the joint NHS social care budget, but I would like to know an awful lot more about how it will be allocated and spent. In particular, I would like to know how the Minister hopes to measure its impact on medical services such as accident and emergency and hospital beds.

I would like us to have a statement on the proposed pathfinder integrated care pilots, because many of us are curious to know where that is going. It seems to me that there is not an awful lot of point in proclaiming the virtues of pooled budgets unless we know exactly what the Secretary of State thinks he is going to achieve. We have an idea from the Health Committee about where it thinks that might go, and the shadow Secretary of State has sketched a vision, but so far we have had an announcement from the Chancellor about making money available yet we do not have any idea what the Secretary of State hopes to achieve through that measure.

I would like to make one suggestion to the Minister: he should take a look at the home from hospital care service, which I understand operates in several parts of the country, and which was inspired by the work of Geraldine Amos almost 40 years ago now. In Birmingham, that service helps people move from hospital back into their own home and community and, of course, frees up hospital beds. It is quite a limited service in Birmingham at present, as it is currently financed by a grant from Birmingham city council, and I am not sure how much longer that will last, given the pressure on local authority budgets. That is, however, one example of how quite a small amount of money can be used to make quite a big impact in getting people back and settled at home, and trying to stop repeat admissions and bed-blocking. The recent NHS Confederation survey of chairs and chief executives revealed that 50% of respondents believed that the financial pressures have affected waiting times and access in the past 12 months and that 70% believe that waiting times and access will be affected by the continuing financial pressures in the next 12 months. So it is slightly strange that we have heard so little from the Government about how they plan to redesign services so that they are able to unlock more sustainable efficiencies for the future.

Given the answers I have received to some written parliamentary questions, my impression is that far from having a vision for the NHS, Ministers are seeking to evade responsibility for it. I have lost count of the number of written answers I have received advising me to contact this body or that body when I have asked the Minister for basic information and figures. We need a bit more clarity about the Government vision, and local communities and their representatives, including local and national politicians, should be properly engaged in that vision. That is one area where we could all be in it together; we could all be party to some kind of change programme, which would help us to redesign the services and to plan an NHS that will have to operate with fewer resources in future.

My recent experience of trying to obtain straight answers on the future of the NHS walk-in centre at Katie road in my constituency does not fill me with any optimism. Why on earth should clinical commissioning groups be allowed to keep private and secret a report on the future of walk-in centres, given that the report was not even commissioned by them? Why should the local Members of Parliament not be given access to that report? Why on earth set up a body such as HealthWatch if it does not get automatic access to it?

I would really like to know a bit more about that Government vision, and I would be particularly interested to know what they want to do to manage some of the growing pressures to which hon. Members have referred. I would like to know the Government’s policy with regard to the greater prevalence of long-term conditions such as diabetes and dementia. Like the hon. Member for Southport (John Pugh), I think it is hard to see the impact of health and wellbeing boards in that area, not because they are not bringing the right mix of people together, but because their chairmen are currently engaged in a line-by-line review of budgets designed to exclude everything that is not a statutory obligation. It is difficult to see how such bodies will be the ones with vision about long-term conditions when that is the level at which they are currently operating.

The Secretary of State should give a clear commitment to tackling the problem of conflicting incentives in the NHS. Acute trusts are paid for their activity through the tariff, while primary care and community care is paid through block contracts which actually serve as a disincentive to activity. I welcome the news that Monitor and NHS England are to examine this problem, but we need some response to it fairly quickly.

In conclusion, I recognise that we are discussing the estimates made possible by the economic circumstances of the country, but it remains the responsibility of the Secretary of State to provide vision and leadership for the NHS, even in such difficult times.