Autumn Statement Resolutions

Peter Dowd Excerpts

Monday 27th November 2023 Commons Chamber

[Peter Dowd (Bootle) (Lab)]

From listening to some Conservative Members, one might think we were in some sort of economic Shangri-La. The only positive element about the autumn statement is that it was not the previous Chancellor’s statement, so I congratulate the Chancellor—perhaps this could be passed on—on not being the previous Chancellor.

In substance, the change of staff in Downing Street means that the country is not quite as far up the creek without a paddle as we may have been under the last Administration, but that is of small comfort to the millions of people who are still paying more for less, so I am sure the Chancellor will understand if I do not give him a high five. He is like a dentist telling the patient that they need only four teeth taken out without anaesthetic rather than five, and dressing that up as good news.

The autumn statement was an act of neglect. The facts from the Office for Budget Responsibility speak for themselves: real growth is down, debt interest is up, inflation is slowing but high, and productivity is in its boots. After 13 years of blundering, every indicator is pointing in the wrong direction. The Conservative party has spent months making lofty pronouncements about long-term decisions, but the Chancellor’s statement looked no further than the next election. By now, this House and the British public are used to the wide gap between their claims and fiscal reality.

Does anyone remember the “long-term economic plan” from 2014? What happened to that? What about “strong and stable” in 2017? Where has that gone, and where are northern powerhouse and HS2? It is strange that we did not hear any of those phrases in the statement. Of course, the Chancellor could not even bring himself to mention “a brighter future”—the slogan that adorned his party conference just a few weeks ago. The statement shows that the Conservatives have not learned a single lesson from their 13 years in power. They have not hit one of their fiscal rules in 13 years.

Once again, we see the old approach, which the public now roundly reject: attacks on our public sector, which is always refused the resources that it needs; and, as we have heard this afternoon, the scapegoating of social security claimants—particularly disabled people—through cuts to the social security system, to pay for the Government’s economic chaos. We can see from the polls that the public are tired of the same old Tory approach put forward in the autumn statement. They are tired of NHS waiting lists of nearly 8 million people waiting for healthcare, including 14,000 people in my constituency and constituents of every Member in this Chamber. Almost 200 schools are at the point of collapse because the Government decided to halt the Building Schools for the Future programme. The number of bus services has been halved since 2011, leaving more people isolated and unable to access services. And it goes on: the housing market is in a parlous state; mortgage defaults are going through the roof, if people have one; and many landlords are out of control and using no-fault evictions. In huge swathes of the country, it is almost impossible for people to get a mortgage, let alone pay it.

I will concentrate on two elements. First, on tax, the Chancellor tried to buy off the electorate with headline-grabbing changes to national insurance, but those policies only thinly conceal the true picture of what is happening under this Government. The frozen tax thresholds mean that those who make their living from work will pay tens of billions of pounds more while taxes on the wealthy remain largely flat—that is a political choice; it is as simple as that. Over the pandemic, the top 10% accrued £50,000 each in additional wealth, according to the Resolution Foundation. The list goes on.

In reality, the changes to national insurance that were announced last week will be paid for by cuts in services. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has shown that the statement bakes in a real-terms cut, to the tune of £22 billion by 2028, to departmental budgets. That almost exactly matches the £20 billion that was spent on the national insurance proposals announced last week, and of course there will be more cuts in local government, right across the piece. It has been 13 years of blight, with tax cuts paid for by denuding public services and implemented by a deluded Government, and a weaker safety net. It is the same old Conservatives in action.

What about national borrowing? The Tories would have us believe that they borrow less and pay back more, but I will quickly fact-check that claim. The only fact we need to know is that the Tories make it up as they go along: the reality is that they borrow more and pay back less. That is fairly well documented—one or two Conservative MPs may want to ask their researchers to check that with the Library.

Turning to public services, what is that £20 billion of cuts going to look like? It will be dreadful. The Resolution Foundation says that the pain now being proposed is “implausible” in its scale. The Institute for Fiscal Studies broke down those cuts in more detail and found that if some Departments continue to be protected, that means 3.4% cuts across the board for others. That £20 billion of cuts means more bankrupt councils, longer waiting lists in the courts and fewer police—in short, a continued decline in the quality of our lives, and more pressure on the social fabric that my hon. Friend the Member for West Ham (Ms Brown) spoke about. It all adds up to the greatest fall in disposable incomes since 1955. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation calls the plans “fundamentally inadequate” to deal with the 4 million people in this country who are in destitution.

What we need—what we are all calling for, including my communities in Bootle—is a general election as soon as possible to get that shower out.