Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation

Debate between Neil Parish and Iain Wright

Thursday 21st March 2013 Commons Chamber

[Mr Iain Wright (Hartlepool) (Lab)]

I thank all hon. Members who have contributed today. By my reckoning, we have heard valuable and insightful speeches from 30 hon. Members—although, with the exception of the Business Secretary, no Liberal Democrats. All those hon. Members brought to the debate their feelings about, and analysis of, the impact that the measures in the Budget will have on families and businesses in their constituencies and across the country. We have heard about massage parlours, whip cracks and the Kama Sutra—but I shall move on.

At the start of the debate, we heard a tour de force from the shadow Chancellor, who exposed the complete confusion about the new Help to Buy scheme, suggesting that we now have a second omnishambles Budget. We are expecting a U-turn very shortly. It seems that the scheme will not help hard-pressed families get a foot on the property ladder: it is actually a bung, a spare-home subsidy for millionaires. That is not what the housing market needs, and it is certainly not what the economy needs.

We have heard that public sector net borrowing has been, with acute financial management, revised down next year by £0.1 billion. I thought that would have entailed the Treasury going round Whitehall telling Departments not to order photocopying paper this month, but it is a lot more serious than that. As my hon. Friend the Member for Denton and Reddish (Andrew Gwynne) said, we are seeing £2.2 billion moving away from the NHS. Valuable, important and often life-saving operations may not happen as a direct result of the Government’s attempts at financial management. That is an absolute disgrace.

[Neil Parish]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Mr Wright]

I am afraid that I do not have time.

I would support a comprehensive, intelligent and active industrial strategy, based on rigorous analysis and for our competitive advantage. I commend the Government on Monday’s announcement on the aerospace strategy, which is welcome, but there was precious little in the Chancellor’s statement yesterday to back up such an approach.

I was particularly concerned to read in table 2.4 of the Red Book that both resource and capital departmental expenditure limits—DEL—for the green investment bank will be cut to zero in 2014-15. Given that the CBI and others have rightly identified the low carbon sector as a potential growth area in which the UK can be a leading global player if we have the right long-term vision and targeted investment to provide certainty, the figures in the Red Book do not fill me with confidence and I would be grateful if the Minister could outline the Government’s longer term plans and investment for the green investment bank.

Similarly, I was disappointed that no mention was given in the Budget to science. The Chancellor made great play of the need for Britain to compete in the global race. I agree with him. If we are to avoid slipping behind in the international competitiveness race, we must prioritise science and technological innovation, because if we do not, our future industrial capacity will be undermined. Will the Minister outline why science was not mentioned in the Budget?

Several hon. Members, including my hon. Friend the Member for Denton and Reddish and the hon. Member for North Swindon (Justin Tomlinson), mentioned business rates and retail, and they were right to do so, because the Budget certainly did not. David McCorquodale, head of retail at KPMG, said:

“The decision to go ahead regardless and increase business rates will squeeze embattled retailers further and will not deliver the respite the retail sector needs to recover.

Retailers are now left facing a 2.6% hike to their business rates bill, a move which will add £175 million to their overheads. Amongst a backdrop of flatlining sales and continued austerity, this is not a welcome move by the Government.”

Can I ask the Minister why the Government did not help the embattled retail sector?

In today’s debate, many hon. Members, starting with the shadow Chancellor, reminded the House of what the Chancellor had promised in the run-up to the general election and in his first Budget. He set himself several key targets and tests by which his economic record, competency, judgment and capability should be judged. First, the Conservative party’s manifesto stated that the first objective would be to

“safeguard Britain’s credit rating with a credible plan to eliminate the bulk of the structural deficit over a Parliament.”

In early 2010, he backed that up by saying that

“our first Benchmark for Britain is to...cut the deficit more quickly to safeguard Britain’s credit rating.”

We all know how successful the Chancellor’s performance has been on that score. Curiously enough, there is no mention of the credit rating in the Red Book; nor was it mentioned in the Chancellor’s speech yesterday. Funnily enough, I did not hear many Government Back Benchers mention how important the credit rating is either, although my hon. Friends the Members for Birmingham, Selly Oak (Steve McCabe) and for Scunthorpe (Nic Dakin) certainly did mention it.

At the start of this Parliament, the Chancellor said that the current structural deficit would be eliminated by the end of 2014-15. Yesterday’s Red Book, however, shows that the Chancellor’s target to balance the books by the end of this Parliament will be missed by three whole years. Public sector net borrowing at the end of this Parliament is now forecast to be approximately £96 billion—five times larger than the Chancellor expected it to be in 2010. Every year, he comes to this House and has to admit that borrowing is rising, and that the time scale to cut the deficit is growing ever longer.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has said that deficit reduction has stalled. Net borrowing is higher in each year as a result of weaker economic outlook. My hon. Friend the Member for Barnsley Central (Dan Jarvis) reminded us that the Government are forecast to borrow £245 billion more than they originally planned, and my hon. Friend the Member for Luton South (Gavin Shuker) said that borrowing in the five years of this Government is higher than it was in the 13 years of the previous Labour Government. The dramatic deterioration in sentiment, even since Christmas, is striking. According to Red Book figures, the Government now expect to borrow £55.7 billion more in the next five years than they thought they would have to even three months ago.

The Chancellor assured us that, as a result of his policies, net debt would be falling as a proportion of national income by 2015. That was one of his fiscal targets. Judge me, he said, by my ability to get debt as a share of GDP down. However, the Red Book reveals the true failure of the Chancellor’s approach: net debt as a proportion of national income is not falling but rising in every single year of the rest of this Parliament and beyond, from 75.9% of national income this year, to 79.2% in 2013-14, to 82.6% in 2014-15, to 85.1% in 2015 and peaking at 85.6% in 2016-17. As the OBR states:

“As borrowing now falls more gradually, debt rises more quickly as a share of GDP.”

We are now paying more in debt interest—£51 billion a year, which is more than we spend on the defence of this country—than the £44 billion when this Government came to office. The TaxPayers Alliance, which I do not think is a friend of the Labour party, said today:

“By 2017-18, even on the OBR’s optimistic forecasts, the Coalition Government will have more than doubled the official national debt it inherited.”

The Chancellor is refusing, in the face of all the evidence, to change direction in economic policy, as my hon. Friend the Member for Barnsley Central said. On every single test of economic policy that the Chancellor has set himself and asked to be judged on, he has failed, and because of those failures families in Britain are struggling. Life is worse now and living standards are lower for ordinary families than they were three years ago, and they will be worse in 2015. The Chancellor is pursuing this course for reasons of political vanity and ideological arrogance, rather than from economic necessity. His incompetence and lack of judgment have meant that he has boxed himself in. There is nowhere for him to go with any dignity and he refuses, for reasons of pride rather than economics, to change course. As Andrew Smith, chief economist at KPMG in the UK said in response to the Budget yesterday:

“It is now clear that ambitious deficit reduction is stunting growth. Hemmed in by what is left of ‘Plan A’, today’s measures amount to little more than rearranging the deckchairs…hopes that exports and private business investment will come to the rescue depend crucially on strengthening overseas markets—something over which neither the Chancellor nor the Bank of England have any control.”

The Chancellor is fast running out of excuses. He has blamed the lack of growth in the economy on the snow, on the rain and on the sun. I am sure that the recent eruption of Mount Etna must also somehow be causing a drag on the British economy. He has blamed lack of growth on the diamond jubilee, the Olympics, the number of bank holidays and, as far as I am aware, on the fact that Girls Aloud have reformed and split up, and the Rovers Return has burned down. The excuses have got to stop. The Chancellor needs to look in the mirror.

Despite the difficult European situation, the flatlining economy is down to the Chancellor. A deficit reduction programme without a strategy for growth is no deficit reduction programme at all. Growth forecasts have halved, living standards are falling for millions of people, borrowing is soaring and control of the public finances have been kicked well into the next Parliament. The hon. Member for Bedford (Richard Fuller), for whom I have a lot of respect, has said that we should not kick the can down the road, but with this Budget that is precisely what the Chancellor is doing. He and the Government need to acknowledge their failings and change course, or, better still, make way for a team that will help fulfil the British promise, not hinder it.