Defence and Security Review (NATO)

Neil Carmichael Excerpts

Monday 2nd March 2015 Commons Chamber

[Neil Carmichael (Stroud) (Con)]

It is a great pleasure to speak in this debate and to follow my hon. Friend the Member for Reigate (Crispin Blunt), although I disagree with his conclusions about Trident. We need a deterrent of that type. I hope we will never need to use it, but having it will probably ensure that we do not need to use it. That is the key point about the deterrence of Trident. I am firmly of the view that the Government are right in the course of action they have adopted.

I agree with other hon. Members that 2% of GDP should not just be a target, but should eventually be exceeded. The Chairman of the Defence Committee is right to link 2% to growth. Of course, when there is growth, that 2% becomes bigger. The key point to bear in mind is that if we do not get our economy right, we will not have growth. Defence will therefore suffer if our economy plunges again. The actions that we are taking through—dare I say it—the long-term economic plan and in reducing the deficit are part of our security, because they enable us to afford the things that we want and need in terms of defence.

The second important argument for spending 2%, as most people have noted, is that we must provide leadership to our fellow NATO members. Pledging 2% and encouraging others to meet the 2% target is part of our defence strategy and should remain so. We are right to spend 2% for those two reasons and probably a whole lot more.

What we spend the money on is also important. I have been struck in the course of the debate by the number of people who have said, “We did not think that was going to happen,” or, “That came as a surprise to us.” Our defence expenditure therefore has to have flexibility built in. We have to bear it in mind that we might have very different enemies from those we have had in the past in terms of capacity, style and objectives. That certainly applies to Russia, which has various different strategies and ways of challenging and testing us, as has been said. Islamic State presents a completely different challenge that requires a response that is quite out of the ordinary in terms of defence activity. In spending the 2% of GDP, we must bear in mind the importance of flexibility.

That point was well made, in a slightly different way, by my hon. Friend the Member for Broadland (Mr Simpson), who linked defence, international development and the activities of the Foreign Office. That is a big sum of money in total. It is wise and strategically sensible to think about the whole security budget, because each part of that budget relates to a meaningful way of protecting Britain’s interests. With reference to the Foreign Office, it is important that we know what is going on. We therefore need our diplomatic representatives and everybody else connected with our embassies, and we must ensure that our embassies are properly equipped and staffed. Again, the Chairman of the Defence Committee made that point very well when he talked about the Baltic states.

The key question is: what are our strategic interests? I do not think that we have yet settled what they are. As we have already noted, things happen and they are surprising. We need to find a strategic plan that defines where we want to be, the kind of responses we should have and the objectives we want. That can only be done in conjunction with our allies. I am thinking not just about the United States of America, which is, of course, a natural ally, but about our allies in Europe. The threats we are discussing are to Europe as much as to us and we therefore have a responsibility and a duty to engage with our European partners to ensure that their strategy is not dissimilar to ours. Arguments in front of an enemy between allies that are supposed to be dealing with that enemy always end up in confusion and a lack of capacity.

We need to define our geographical area as well as our capacity. By this, I mean that we must think about the middle east, northern Africa and beyond. I have learned over the past few years the value of simply being around and paying attention. That is certainly the case with the Falklands and Antarctica. Britain’s presence there guarantees a powerful role is an important geopolitical area. That is a maxim we should apply elsewhere, but to do so we must understand our strategic objectives. That is why I think it is critical that any review in the not-too-distant future bears in mind that situation.

This is a basic point, but we must always think about the politics when we think about engagement with armed forces—not about the politics here, but about the politics of where we are. We have learned that often in the past. We were very clear about what we wanted to achieve in the Falklands. There was no political dispute; we had to retake the Falklands, period. We had a clear objective with a clear political outcome and it worked. We have been less successful when we have been less clear and sure about our strategic objectives. The obvious example is Iraq. We should not have gone in in the first place and when we got there we started making even more mistakes in the implementation of the strategy for the responsibilities we took once we had removed Saddam Hussein. The difficulty that Iraq and the region still face is that we were not sure enough about what we were doing, we lacked strategic certainty and we therefore left a problem that was either bigger or still big enough, and that has had ramifications ever since.

In short, yes to 2%; yes to a full commitment to NATO; yes to a recognition that we must have a defence force that is flexible, modern and bristling with high-technology and that there is fluid enough military thinking to be able to respond to the challenges that emerge on an irregular and often surprising basis; and yes to defining, understanding and seeing through our political objectives.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Jones]

But the hon. Gentleman needs to be honest about the time scale. I thought he was going to refer, as one Member did from a sedentary position, to the mythical £38 billion black hole, which was designed to disguise the Government’s 8% cut. The Defence Committee’s report of November 2011 says:

“We note that the MoD now state the genuine size of the gap is substantially in excess of £38 billion. However, we also note the”

former

“Secretary of State’s assertion that the ‘for the first time in a generation, the MoD will have brought its plans and budget broadly into balance, allowing it to plan with confidence for the delivery of the future equipment programme’. Without proper detailed figures neither statement can be verified.”

I have challenged numerous Ministers on that. It is one of those things that was thought up in central office during the election and then kept getting repeated.

Serious points have been made in today’s debate about Britain’s place in the world, including by my hon. Friend the Member for Birmingham, Edgbaston and the Chair of the Committee. We need to ask the question that we asked in 1998: what is our role in the world and is there a wider debate to be had with the British public? I think there is, but this Government are not conducting the latest defence review in a constructive way. In 1998, as the hon. Member for New Forest East has said, we had a broad, inclusive debate. Even in 2010 we produced a Government Green Paper setting out the issues, but as soon as the coalition got in the Treasury-led review was completed in record time. This time the process needs to be thought out.

Things do not bode well, however, because the Ministry of Defence will not even tell my hon. Friend the Member for Gedling (Vernon Coaker) what questions it will ask in the review, while the Prime Minister’s view is that all we need is a light tweak. We live in a very changeable world—we have had a very good debate today about Russia and the threats we now face from Islamic terrorism—and the idea that all we need is a light tweak is a huge mistake.

[Neil Carmichael]

Will the shadow Minister tell the House whether or not the Labour Opposition agree with the 2% target?

[Mr Jones]

I have made that clear. I will not promise things I cannot deliver, which the hon. Gentleman’s party did at the last election. He will have to stand up in front of his electorate in Stroud in May and say that he disagrees with the Prime Minister and will not sign up to the austerity Budget outlined by the Chancellor in the autumn statement. He needs to be honest with his constituents by saying that, because that is what will happen to the defence budget. He can make all his points about our position, but we have been very clear that we will meet the 2015-16 targets.

The hon. Member for Broadland (Mr Simpson)—I will call my fellow war graves commissioner my hon. Friend—made this point about those in the Ministry of Defence. I think he said that they were rolling the logs along the path, and they have in certain ways. What is needed, and this is part of our zero-based budget review, is to look in detail at exactly how our defence budget is spent. There is an argument for efficiencies that can be made, and they will be made.

The defence review must involve the largest possible number of people; otherwise it cannot be done. If the Treasury is just let loose, as it was in 2010, it will have the same result. I will say something that is perhaps out of character, but when he was Defence Secretary the right hon. Member for North Somerset (Dr Fox) did at least try to keep the Treasury dogs from the door, although he unfortunately failed.