Eurozone Crisis

Neil Carmichael Excerpts

Tuesday 15th November 2011 Westminster Hall

[Mr Baron]

My hon. Friend nearly stole one of the lines I was about to come out with. Fundamentally, I agree with him. The problem is caused by excessive debt: that is what makes this recession different from previous ones, yet the solution the eurozone leaders have come up with is to pile on more debt. That is not the solution. All it is doing is reinforcing failure and failed policies.

There are further reasons why this policy will not work. I cannot think of a monetary union in the economic history of this planet that has succeeded without fiscal union also being in place. Again, I call on the Minister to intervene if he can correct me. To pursue monetary union without fiscal union is a doomed policy. Can the Minister come up with one example of successful monetary union in a country where fiscal union has not also been present? As I say, I would welcome his intervention, but I doubt that he will have such an example.

As my hon. Friend the Member for Clacton (Mr Carswell) has suggested, another reason why this policy will fail is that it fundamentally ignores the importance of devaluation to recovering economies. Usually, there are three elements in an IMF package: reduced spending, increased revenue and the ability to allow the currency to devalue. That last bit is important because a currency that devalues helps to take the strain off the economy. If an economy is deemed to be, say, 25% uncompetitive compared with its neighbours, allowing its currency to depreciate to about the same extent will go a long way towards taking the strain. If we cut off that option, that 25% gain in competitiveness can really be brought about only by cuts to public services, salaries and pension funds. That is simply not an option, and for that reason it makes those austerity packages so much worse.

To my knowledge, the IMF has never lent to a country or put in place a programme in a country that cannot devalue, which is why the Government line that only three of the 53 IMF packages go to the eurozone is disingenuous. Can the Minister name one country, one package in those 50, where devaluation is not an option? That is the fundamental difference. In the three packages in the eurozone, devaluation is off the table, which will make the austerity packages worse.

Having asked the Minister several questions, I was hoping that a number of notes would have been passed to him so that we could get some answers. I am sure he has pre-empted my questions and has the answers in his brief. Again, I would welcome him intervening to name one of those packages outside the eurozone in which devaluation is not an option. They do not exist. Devaluation is terribly important when it comes to an IMF package, but we are not allowing that option in the eurozone. That is another reason why these IMF packages will fail.

[Neil Carmichael (Stroud) (Con)]

When the IMF intervened in our economy in 1976, when Denis Healey was fighting to save the pound, that intervention arrested the devaluation of the pound.

[Mr Baron]

I agree to a certain extent, but my hon. Friend cannot deny that we had the ability to devalue. The currency markets could take the strain and, to a certain extent, they did. If we look at the strength of the pound since the second world war, we see that it has been a sorry tale of devaluation. Had that devaluation not taken place and had we been locked into a system that did not allow devaluation, my goodness me, the austerity packages introduced to compensate for that lack of competitiveness would have been very severe indeed.

--- Later in debate ---

[Neil Carmichael (Stroud) (Con)]

I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay (Mr Baron) on securing this crucial debate. A large number of important matters have been raised, and it is a good opportunity to discuss them in this Chamber.

I take issue with the assumption that devaluation is a good thing. We have formally devalued twice since the second world war, and we are in a slowly-emerging devaluation. Post-departure from Bretton Woods, we effectively devalued over time. I see no evidence that any of those devaluations ever led to long-term improvements in productivity or competitiveness, so although the IMF, as it has in the past, has perhaps lent to countries that can and have devalued, it is not necessarily a good thing.

[Mr Carswell]

Does my hon. Friend accept that Argentina’s decision to decouple from the dollar and default on its debts helped it to achieve economic growth? Does he think that that was a good thing or a bad thing?

[Neil Carmichael]

I am a great believer in all countries growing. Argentina is doing reasonably well, but that has more to do with the neighbouring countries that it trades with in Latin America than with decoupling from the dollar. However, I take the point that some countries will take the opportunity for a quick leap forward.

[Mr Carswell]

Does my hon. Friend agree that the IMF’s decision to allow the Ugandan shilling to devalue helped to stimulate growth in Uganda in the 1990s and that, without that devaluation, it would not have enjoyed 15 years of prosperity?

[Neil Carmichael]

If my hon. Friend thinks that the devaluations of 1949 and 1967 in this country led to a period of improved productivity and competitiveness, I would dispute that. I want to pursue that argument, because that is what I think is important.

[Mr Baron]

My hon. Friend is being generous in giving way. Devaluation is not necessarily the best thing going, but it helps to take the strain for a currency that is weakening and therefore allows austerity measures to be perhaps less harsh than they would otherwise be. That is the point. There is no economic evidence to suggest that, if we did not allow devaluation to take effect, austerity packages would be worse and make the economic downturn much worse.

[Neil Carmichael]

I can certainly understand my hon. Friend’s argument, but it is worth pointing out that devaluation is not a panacea and should not be used frequently.

[Mr Philip Hollobone (Kettering) (Con)]

rose—

[Neil Carmichael]

I will take one more intervention on devaluation, or this discussion will be devalued.

[Mr Hollobone]

This country has devalued on a trade-weighted basis by 25% since the peak in 2008. If we had not had that devaluation, this country would now be inflicting on itself a far harsher austerity package and unemployment would be far higher. Without the devaluation mechanism, countries face far starker choices.

[Neil Carmichael]

This Government’s real achievement is to address the deficit. They have set out a plan that is effective and encouraging markets to understand that we are taking the appropriate action. That is one of the benefits of being outside the euro, and we should focus more on that, rather than worrying about the benefits or otherwise of devaluation. I repeat for the last time that I do not think that devaluation is a panacea that we should be pursuing.

[Mr Cash]

What is my hon. Friend’s evidence for the success of the reduction of the deficit? Growth is running at almost zero, and much of that comes surely from the fact that we cannot trade with a completely stagnant Europe.

[Neil Carmichael]

One of the obvious pieces of evidence is that we are not talking about the IMF coming to bail us out—a huge achievement by the Government that should be recognised. We will have to move on from devaluation, but I think that I have made my point and others have attempted to make theirs.

Inflation would certainly help debt reduction, because it does in the long run. As I said in an intervention, when Denis Healey borrowed money from the IMF, that did arrest devaluation. We were more easily able to pay the IMF back quite quickly because of the impact of inflation. I do not support inflating the economy in that way either, as a remedy.

[Mark Field]

In the late 1970s, inflation was coming down quite rapidly from a height of 26% in 1975. One could argue that there has been a deliberate policy by the Bank of England, perhaps in cahoots with the Treasury, to allow a little bit of inflation to go into the system. That is exactly what is happening here in the UK, where historically we have had high real inflation, which is having a major impact on all our constituents’ living standards.

[Neil Carmichael]

Inflation did go down, but after the IMF loan was made. It reached a peak in 1976, which I think was 26%. That happened to coincide with the time of the IMF loan, so that is the position that we should discuss.

[Mr Edward Leigh (Gainsborough) (Con)]

My hon. Friend has been very generous in giving way. He will accept—will he not?—that we should not have stayed in the exchange rate mechanism.

[Neil Carmichael]

Well, we were blasted out of the ERM. We do not want to repeat that fiasco, and we should all recognise that.

We talked briefly about the United States. Gerald Ford, President of the United States in the mid-1970s, refused to bail-out New York, and quite right, too. He was a fiscal conservative. That was the right decision in the long run, and, of course, a decision that did not affect New York’s membership of the dollar. I just wanted to put that on the record.

We must focus on two things, and the Prime Minister identified them both in his speech yesterday. I want to ram home the importance of reforming the European Union, because that is what it needs. In particular, we have to drill down on the single market, to ensure that it is a single market and that competitiveness in goods and services is enhanced. We can really do that.

On euro measures, this country would be making a big mistake if we assumed that the euro will not affect us significantly, because it certainly will. [Interruption.] I shall wind up. I have been so generous with interventions that I do not have the time to point out that we need fiscal union in the eurozone, the ECB to be enhanced—as my hon. Friend the Member for Cities of London and Westminster (Mark Field) rightly said—and much more rigorous auditing of what is going on.

Last but not least, there is a democratic deficit, although the IMF extension was discussed in the House and we voted on 11 July. I have noticed two things. First, Germany and France are effectively bypassing the Commission in a lot of their decisions—

[Martin Caton (in the Chair)]

Order. The hon. Gentleman has gone on beyond the time at which I said that I wanted to start the winding-up speeches. Many Members have asked the Minister questions to which they want to hear the answers. I should be grateful to the hon. Gentleman if he stayed seated now.