Budget Resolutions

Debate between Mel Stride and Robert Halfon

Wednesday 27th October 2021 Commons Chamber

[Mel Stride]

I was saying that in the first phase of this crisis, between the huge contraction in the economy and the recovery that we are now seeing, it is fair to say that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor did a pretty remarkable job to support the jobs market and to support jobs—not without criticism, incidentally, from my Committee, but overall it was a remarkable job.

My right hon. Friend has an even tougher job as he looks to the future, now having to deliver sustainable economic growth and ensure that the public finances are on a sustainable trajectory, as well as meeting all the other objectives the Government rightly have on levelling up, net zero and so on.

[Robert Halfon (Harlow) (Con)]

My right hon. Friend mentions levelling up. Does he not agree that this is a real workers’ budget? The funds for skills and schools will transform the prospects of our young people and our adults, and let them climb the ladder of opportunity to get skills, security, prosperity and jobs for the future.

[Mel Stride]

My right hon. Friend is absolutely correct about skills. He, of course, through his Committee, has done so much to promote that agenda, which I will come to momentarily, but the background is extremely tough.

While the Chancellor is right to point out that the deficit is falling, it is none the less very highly elevated compared with historical measures. The debt, in financial terms at least, is at a record level of £2.2 billion, and the economy has the headwinds of supply chain bottlenecks and the mismatch between demand and supply that we are seeing in parts of the labour force.

However, there are reasons to be cheerful, which my right hon. Friend outlined. Those are the OBR’s revised forecast showing that growth is much stronger this year—I think the Chancellor suggested 6.5%, compared with the March forecast of just 4%—and the scarring downgrade from 3% to 2%. By my calculation, that is probably worth about £10 billion or thereabouts per year; it is a significant achievement. All that has been achieved through the hard work of the last 18 months to two years. I do not think we should take that away from my right hon. Friend.

That has left my right hon. Friend with some breathing space, and he recognises that there are many challenges facing the economy and uncertainties going forward. A big test as we unpack the Budget is what he has done with that additional headroom. Not surprisingly, he has spent quite a lot of it. It appears to me that, with his fiscal rule of keeping day to day expenditure without borrowing and debt coming down as a percentage of GDP, he has headroom of about £25 billion in 2024-25 on the net debt target, which is about 0.9% of GDP, with the OBR economic and fiscal outlook suggesting he has a 55% to 60% chance of hitting that particular metric. The Committee will want to look very closely at how prudent an approach my right hon. Friend has taken to the Budget.

I see my hon. Friend the Member for Basildon and Billericay (Mr Baron) itching to intervene, so I give way to him.