(10 years, 8 months ago)
Commons ChamberI congratulate the right hon. Member for Wentworth and Dearne (John Healey) on securing this debate.
As the right hon. Gentleman rightly pointed out, in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, politicians the world over were at great pains to avoid the policy mistakes that followed the banking collapse of the 1930s. Conventional Keynesian pump-priming was continually invoked as the means of preventing a recession from turning into a depression. Depressingly, rather less interest seemed to be given to the equally important lessons that the 1929 to 1933 era taught us about protectionism. The right hon. Gentleman referred to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised tariffs drastically on goods that were imported into the United States in a bid to protect American jobs from foreign competition. That Act sparked a domino effect among America’s trading partners, who predictably imposed similar measures to protect their own economies. The result, as we all know, was a terrific slump in world trade that devastated economic growth and caused unemployment to soar. Only the ensuing second world war helped to get the global economy on its feet again.
In 2010, as growth remained elusive, I wrote and spoke in this House of my deep concern that we might see a new wave of protectionist measures being introduced by politicians who were under pressure to protect domestic markets. The House might recall the defensive, almost nationalistic tone of the debate as Kraft’s hostile takeover of Cadbury was going through, particularly from the Opposition Benches. I called at that time for political leadership to make the case strongly for the massive benefits of free trade and to break down the remaining barriers.
It is in that context that I am heartened, four years on, by the enthusiasm with which the transatlantic trade and investment partnership has been embraced by policy makers.
Does my hon. Friend agree that, despite all the hassle Kraft got, its £70 million commitment to Cadbury and Bournville is another example of the great benefits that inward investment can bring to our country?
Very much so. I suspect that my hon. Friend knows more about the chocolate industry than I, particularly as he is a Yorkshire MP.
The enthusiasm that I mentioned has been seen predominantly on this side of the Atlantic. The main aims of the partnership, on which formal negotiations began last July, are to increase trade and investment between the US and the EU by reducing tariffs, particularly on agricultural products; to align regulations and standards; to improve the protection for overseas investors; and to increase access to services and government procurement markets for foreign providers.
There is no doubt that the prize is enormous and that the TTIP is highly ambitious. The US is and will remain the EU’s most important trading partner, with some $2.7 billion of trade daily in goods and services.
I look forward to the Minister destroying one or two of those arguments. I suspect that the hon. Lady has provided a selective reading of the BIS impact assessment.
Much of the media coverage of the TTIP has focused on the trade of manufactured goods. Rather less attention has been given to a sphere of commerce in which the UK economy excels globally: financial and professional services. I represent the City of London, which is a hub not only for banking, but for a range of related service businesses such as accountancy, insurance, consultancy, the law and pensions management. To put into perspective the importance of those industries to the UK, in 2012 the financial and associated professional services sector employed some 7% of the UK work force, produced some 13% of total economic output, contributed £65 billion in tax and generated a trade surplus of £55 billion.
The City of London is strongly supportive of the TTIP, but has been consistent in its belief that no industry should be excluded from the partnership’s scope, including financial and professional services. There would be benefits not only through boosted trade, but through a reduction in the potential for the kind of regulatory arbitrage that currently means that differences in the implementation of financial standards are exploited, thereby putting financial stability at risk. Some of the regulatory differences are unavoidable because of the variations in EU and US market structures and cultures. Others cannot be justified on prudential grounds.
As was demonstrated so painfully in 2008, we tend to get regulatory co-operation only in times of severe crisis, when deals are brokered at the eleventh hour to avoid market fracture. If financial services were within the TTIP’s scope, I believe that we could design a stable, long-term framework for the discussion and co-ordination of regulatory issues long before we hit the next crisis point. The other great prize is that we could create a larger, more efficient market place for EU and US financial institutions, thereby solidifying their leading role in global financial regulation—a market that will get much bigger in Asia as the emerging economies of China, India and the like strengthen.
It is for those reasons that the EU has been lobbying hard for such services to be included in the TTIP negotiations. However, there is still stiff opposition from the US Treasury, which suggests that the TTIP is primarily a trade pact, not a forum for regulatory co-operation. The fear seems to be that the US might lose its sovereignty over regulation. It must be made clear that that is not what the EU proposes. Nobody wants to undermine existing regulations, even the Dodd-Frank Act. Co-ordination is quite different from capitulation. We need sustained, high-level political engagement to bring financial services within the TTIP’s remit.
I am concerned that there is insufficient public awareness of the TTIP, including what is at stake, what the challenges and benefits are—I accept what the hon. Member for Brighton, Pavilion (Caroline Lucas) says—and what the potential benefits are. Quite understandably, given the systematic undermining of the world’s political and economic elite in recent years, which has been referred to, there is a wave of distrust at the tenor of the negotiations that are under way. There is a common perception that side deals are being brokered to benefit global corporations, posing a risk to national sovereignty that might see our independent courts being made subservient to outside arbitration. It would be helpful if the Minister clarified his position on those arguments this afternoon. I encourage the Government to run an even more visible campaign on the TTIP that allows us all to have an open, honest discussion about its potential benefits and drawbacks.
Does my hon. Friend agree that it is not just the UK Government that should be carrying out that publicity, but the EU? Instead of focusing on Eurobarometer and the other daft publicity ideas that it has, the EU should be spending its money on promoting the benefits of this agreement to its population.
I accept that, but realistically we in the UK probably also need our Government to make clear some of the benefits of trade—some of us in the Conservative party are convinced that the best future lies within the European Union, hopefully with a certain amount of reform going on as well. None the less, it is important that our Government make that strong case.
(12 years, 7 months ago)
Commons ChamberI want to make a brief contribution to this important debate. The phrase that comes to mind is “something will turn up”. It is one of the classic stratagems of last resort in politics and perhaps life in general. I suspect that the Treasury’s handling of the UK’s economy owes rather more than it might be willing to admit to the Mr Micawber principle. After all, time often alleviates and sometimes even eliminates what seem like intractably difficult problems. In stark contrast to the first Thatcher Government, who front-loaded much of the economic pain, the modern-day Treasury, while espousing a tough austerity message, has adopted a more pragmatic, steady-as-she-goes path.
Despite the protestations of the hon. Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves), we must get one thing straight: there is zero veracity in Labour’s contention that the Government are cutting too far, too fast. In the past 12 months, the UK Government’s current spending has totalled some £613.5 billion—the highest figure in history. The Government are still borrowing, even this year, £1 in every £5 that they spend. However, more than half the deficit reduction was predicated on annual compound growth through the Parliament of 2.7% to 2.9%, and it is clear that, for the first half of the Parliament, we shall struggle to achieve growth of even one third of that figure.
Rather than respond to that deteriorating situation by imposing more savings, we have taken the path of ever more debt, courtesy of the Bank of England’s quantitative easing programme. In my view, the real purpose and impact of the UK’s central bank intervention has not been to ease the path of investment borrowing for small business, which is perhaps what it should be. Instead, it has mopped up the substantial proportion of gilts that are being issued. That is where the Mr Micawber principle particularly comes into play. The Bank of England’s actions will not be sustainable in the longer term without a very real risk of inflation. I suspect that global conditions in the years ahead may make it much more difficult to finance our current levels of deficit. That is one reason why we need to get the deficit down as quickly as we can.
Before the Budget, I firmly believed that our focus should rest on some radical supply-side reform to ensure that we get the growth that we need. That would apply partly to the tax system, but also to employment legislation, with forensic attention paid to the impact of high marginal rates of income tax and the disincentives that have crept into the system as a result of both the poverty trap for the low paid and the removal of reliefs for higher rate payers.
I was pleased that a small part of my desire was realised: some progress has obviously been made on taking people out of tax entirely through the increase in the threshold for the basic rate of income tax and the reduction in the top rate tax from 50% to 45%, which is particularly important for entrepreneurs.
I was also personally delighted that, after three years of campaigning alongside the local animation industry in my constituency, the Chancellor announced the Government’s intention to introduce a tax credit for televised animation and video games. I congratulate him and my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport on securing a bright future in the UK for Peppa Pig, Olive the Ostrich and their animated brethren. Finally, we have the level playing field that our creative industries deserve, and the tax credit will help raise the quality of children’s television and retain valuable intellectual property in this country. That is the key reason why I agreed to lead the parliamentary charge on the matter. It is also fantastic news for the vibrant sector in my central London constituency and beyond.
However, rather less progress has been made on arguably the more urgent and important supply-side reform: legislation on employment rights. Once more, the glad, confident morning of June 2010’s Budget has given way to starker reality. It is worth recalling that, at that point, the increasingly discredited Office for Budget Responsibility predicted that unemployment would peak in 2010-11. We now know that it is likely to rise further in the next two years and remain stubbornly high for the foreseeable future. Yet the UK continues to gold-plate continental employment legislation and grant ever more generous paternity and maternity rights. Little wonder that employers are so reluctant to take on more staff.
I disagree with the analysis of the hon. Member for Leeds West about the position in the US. It is instructive to witness how the US has shown signs of turning the economic corner. In simple terms, it is easier to hire, but also to fire staff there. That allows flexibility and supports a rapid readjustment economically.
Does my hon. Friend agree that that does not just apply to the US? Recently, Italy and Germany have exempted their small and medium-sized firms from many of the burdens of employment law.
My hon. Friend is absolutely right, particularly in respect of the German model for the micro-sized businesses that are in the growth phase. There is no doubt in my mind that our recovery phase will commence only when we are able to have that sort of readjustment.
My point was along these lines. One difficulty occurs if all our trading nations are going through austerity; austerity can be done only by one country in such a group. We need to focus attention on growth. Indeed, the last words of a speech I made in the House almost two years ago, after the June 2010 Budget, were that we have talked about and made the right case for austerity, but we needed attention on growth—I fear that there has been too little.
I agree with the hon. Member for Leeds West in her analysis and on trying to assist small and medium-sized enterprises by allowing them to take on extra employees over the next two tax years without paying further national insurance. Better still, we could extend a national insurance holiday to all employees under the age of 25. That opportunity was missed both in the Budget and in the Bill.
I wish to touch on three specific concerns that I strongly hope will be dealt with in Committee in the weeks ahead. I confess that I am a little uneasy at the prospect of the general anti-avoidance provisions and powers that are heralded in the Bill and to which the Chief Secretary referred. Senior coalition Ministers interchange the terms “avoidance” and “evasion” in a rather casual way, which should be of concern to more than merely the tax advisory community. Individuals and businesses in a free society are, and should be, entitled to organise their affairs in such a way as to minimise their tax liability. I have no problem with that.
Although I sympathise with the Treasury, which is forced virtually continuously to update its rules and regulations, any general powers on avoidance should keep retrospection to an absolute minimum, and should be used only in extreme cases of what is regarded as so-called aggressive anti-avoidance. Moreover, it is surely incumbent on the Treasury, if it moves in that direction, to ensure a comprehensive pre-clearance regime to allow companies and their advisers to road-test their proposed taxation schemes with senior HMRC officials.
I appreciate that banks have few friends—I represent the City of London and am perhaps one of the few left—but the treatment meted out by the Treasury to Barclays bank in February set a very unfortunate precedent, not least because in recent weeks the Treasury has sought to lecture the Indian Government on the undesirability of retrospective tax. Barclays bank had sought and obtained clearance for its £500 million tax minimisation scheme. It was overturned in a blaze of publicity. If we are to raise the substantial levels of taxation that UK Governments of all stripes need, given the electorate’s addiction to public spending, we should be wary of anti-business rhetoric, which will give further encouragement to globally mobile institutions wishing to leave these shores. Being open for business depends on certainty in commercial practice, not simply verbal assurances.
Will my hon. Friend update the House on what contribution the financial sector makes to the tax take of UK plc?
I am not sure I can, to be honest, but suffice it to say it is a significant amount. I can appreciate, though, that in these difficult times it is hard to make the case for the huge bonuses in the banking sector, other than to say that it is a globally competitive industry. Financial services will be a big industry going forward. Growth in Asia is adding 20 million or 25 million people a year to the ranks of the global middle class in India, China and South Korea. These will be the customers and consumers, not least because of the cultural reasons for saving, of the financial services industry in the future. That is one reason, in the midst of trying to rebalance our economy, as the Chief Secretary mentioned, we should not lose sight of our global competitive advantage. In the financial services industry, in particular, our global advantage is looked upon jealously in France, Germany and other European countries. They often feel that some of the anti-banking rhetoric coming through will be entirely self-defeating.