Tourism Industry and VAT

Mark Durkan Excerpts

Tuesday 17th March 2015 Westminster Hall

[Shabana Mahmood]

I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for that intervention. I was just about to develop a point about the evidence presented by hon. Members in this debate, and how we will react to it if we form the next Labour Government and Treasury.

I start by recognising that cutting VAT is a significant monetary challenge. The Opposition are clear that we will put no unfunded promises in our manifesto, the basis on which we will seek election from the public in the coming weeks, and we will not borrow any more money for day-to-day spending. We note the evidence presented by hon. Members in this debate from notable academics who have considered the issue in detail. It has been cited in support of the argument by the Cut Tourism VAT campaign. From opposition, I am not in a position to assess that evidence in the same way that the Treasury can, as it has access to data sets that we do not, but I note the Minister’s answers to hon. Members in written parliamentary answers and oral answers during departmental question time in the House. He has said, on the basis of analysis undertaken by the Treasury, that a VAT cut for the sector would not produce sufficient economic growth to outweigh the consequent revenue shortfall. It would be helpful if in summing up, the Minister put more of that evidence on the record, if the position is the same as before.

[Mark Durkan (Foyle) (SDLP)]

I apologise for coming late; I was involved in the debate in the main Chamber. The hon. Lady says that the Opposition are unable to examine the figures, but during this Parliament the Opposition have posited that an overall decrease in VAT would encourage consumer spending on all sorts of important consumer goods. Does she not accept that there is evidence to suggest that the measure would at least help trap the multiplier in a more targeted way in areas that depend on the tourism economy?

[Shabana Mahmood]

The hon. Gentleman will know that in the early part of this Parliament, we proposed an alternative package to the Government as an immediate measure to stimulate the economy. It envisaged a temporary VAT cut, which at the time could have made a difference across the whole economy and might have meant being in a different position today. I note, though, that the previous Labour Government, when lobbied on the issue, felt that targeting the cut in the way then envisaged would not necessarily have produced the effects anticipated by hon. Members.

That is why it would be helpful to hear more from the Minister about current Treasury thinking and analysis of the available evidence. An incoming Labour Treasury would certainly want to consider all that evidence and see the analysis at first hand. In particular, we would want to understand the relationship between different measures that could be taken, including a potential VAT tax cut compared with, for example—the Government have also cited this in defence of their position—the employment allowance, a £2,000 rebate on employer national insurance contributions introduced by the Government earlier in this Parliament. I would also want to be convinced that we would achieve as close to 100% pass-through of such a big change if we were to start considering seriously the case for making it.

However, we return to the fact that if we cut VAT in that way, the most recent Office for National Statistics data from 2012 suggest an annual cost to the Exchequer of £11 billion to £12 billion. Those sums would have to be found elsewhere, and we as an incoming Labour Government would not be in a position to make that choice. So I cannot commit to a VAT cut of the nature called for by the campaign, although I can of course commit, if I become a Treasury Minister after the election in May, to assessing the analysis and all available evidence. I will also work with colleagues in the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport to examine what else can be done to assist the tourism sector and ensure that it plays its full part in encouraging sustained and balanced economic growth. I am sure that the Cut Tourism VAT campaign will continue to make its case in full heart in the life of the next Parliament; it is certainly made up of doughty parliamentary campaigners. I look forward to engaging with them in much the same way that I know the Minister has engaged with them thus far in this Parliament.

Tourism is a hugely important sector to the UK. It is our fourth largest service industry; it employs 9.6% of the UK work force, or 3.1 million people; it generates 9% of the UK’s entire GDP; and in 2013 it contributed £127 billion to the economy. So, it is in everybody’s interests to ensure that the sector grows, thrives and continues to provide the jobs necessary for UK plc.

As I highlighted in our debate on tourism last year, there are other policy levers that can be pulled, without the cost implications that a VAT cut on tourism would entail, which would still be of real benefit to the sector. One of the most effective of those levers could be around immigration policy, particularly given the complexity around fees, visa applications and the monitoring required to make sure that people do not overstay their visa. The Government have made particular changes with respect to some countries, such as China. However, it is the case that other countries are deemed to be a high risk for potential overstaying but whose genuine visitors are often locked out. I see that in my own constituency with visitors who want to come from the Indian subcontinent, but the immigration officials almost take a first view that those people are more likely to overstay than not. Often, that is not the case. People want to come to the UK to see the land that their forefathers left their countries of origin for, and they wish to come and celebrate family events such as weddings. They will spend money here, and their British citizen relatives will spend money showing them a good time and showing them what Britain is all about. We should assist that process and not hold it back.

Therefore, although I cannot agree for the cut that has been called for, I commend the work of the Cut Tourism VAT campaign and the work of its supporters in the House. We will continue to work closely with the tourism sector and we look forward to hearing more from the campaigners in the future.