Inflation

Lord Young of Cookham Excerpts

Monday 1st July 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Young of Cookham (Con)]

My Lords, I thank my noble friend Lord Forsyth for introducing this and all noble Lords who have taken part in an exceptionally well-informed debate on a rather specialised, but none the less important, topic which impacts directly on all of us—as the noble Lord, Lord Darling, and my noble friends Lord Tugendhat and Lady Browning, explained. I also thank noble Lords for their detailed report, for which the Government are grateful; I thank, too, the departing members of the committee for their work.

Normally, I look forward to debates on my noble friend’s reports, but on this occasion it cast a small cloud over my weekend, as I realised that what I have to say may leave my noble friend and his committee less than satisfied. However, I hope to persuade him that there are good reasons for that. In fact, much of the debate focused not exclusively on the Government but on the role of the UKSA—particularly the speeches from the noble Lords, Lord Burns and Lord Turnbull. I am sure that they will read with interest what we have said today.

As a former Treasury Minister, albeit some 25 years ago, I took a deep personal interest in the Government’s response, possibly straying from my advertised role as a spokesman for the Treasury. I have read the report, which raises a number of complex and wide-ranging issues on the RPI, the Government’s use of inflation statistics, and the future of measuring inflation.

Before I continue, may I first pay tribute to John Pullinger, who recently retired as National Statistician? He had a distinguished term in that post. To mention but a few of his achievements in the role, he led the ONS strategy entitled Better Statistics, Better Decisions, headed the newly created analysis function, and worked alongside the UKSA to, in his own words, make it,

“unacceptable for people to either not use evidence, or to misuse it”,

a sentiment with which I am sure this House concurs—and relevant in view of the exchange earlier today in the Oral Question from the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes.

I should like to address the concerns of my noble friend Lord Forsyth, and the other noble Lords who sit on the Economic Affairs Committee, on the lack of a government response to their report, which was published in January—an issue raised by many noble Lords, including the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey.

The Government appreciate the amount of work and the level of scrutiny that go into all the committee’s inquiries; we understand its frustration. I regret that there is yet to be a government response and understand the difficulties in debating a Select Committee report without one being available. This delay is not driven by inaction. The issues that the report raises are complex and wide-ranging. Measures of inflation are embedded across the economy and affect the lives of almost everyone in the country. They include rental agreements, mobile phone contracts, financial instruments, government debt, pensions and rail fares, to name but a few.

[Lord Lea of Crondall]

Will the Minister take this opportunity to include wage and salary increases in that list? It seems quite extraordinary that the main quantitative use of the RPI does not get a mention, even now.

[Lord Young of Cookham]

I said, “to name but a few”, but I will gladly add the issue raised by the noble Lord to the list. Some, but not all, wage increases are linked to RPI.

Some uses of the measures are interlinked; for example, for pension schemes whose members, many of whom are in private sector defined benefit schemes, have pension payments that increase by RPI. This means that, in turn, those schemes seek RPI-linked assets to hedge those liabilities. As a result, a large share of the Government’s outstanding RPI-linked debt is held by those pension schemes. The Pension Protection Fund estimates that almost 90% of outstanding index-linked gilts are held by UK defined benefit pension schemes and UK insurance companies.

The breadth, complexity, and importance of these issues mean that the committee’s report requires further careful consideration. Given the complexities of the issue, it is sensible that the Government and the UKSA produce a well-considered response—while respecting the UKSA’s independence, of course.

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

A very kind and polite person from the Chancellor’s office rang me to say that there would not be a response. I said that I was not sure that the House would like that very much, but he said, “Don’t worry, Lord Young will be able to deal with the debate”. The Minister gave a reason for the complexities of the system: that so many things rely on the RPI. If that is so, is that not a reason to make sure that the RPI is accurate? I cannot get my head around it.

[Lord Young of Cookham]

That goes to one recommendation directed at the UKSA. That issue will be addressed directly in the government response to the recommendations. I cannot give my noble friend an answer today; I hope that he understands why.

In introducing the debate, my noble friend wondered whether the Government discussing this issue with the UKSA somehow compromised the UKSA’s independence. It is perfectly legitimate for the Government to discuss matters with the UKSA without interfering with its independence in decision-making. We discuss a wide range of issues with it—as we should, given that the ONS is the producer of economic statistics. One can have that dialogue without encroaching in any way on the UKSA’s independence. The Government continue to discuss the relevant issues raised by the report; the Chancellor wrote to my noble friend last week, outlining that point. I stress to my noble friend, the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, and other noble Lords that we are working hard to respond to the committee’s report as quickly as possible. We will communicate a date for this response in due course and will provide sufficient notice for the markets.

Let me move on to the central focus of the inquiry, namely the RPI. As the Government have stated before, we recognise that there are flaws in the way that RPI is measured and that, as a result, its rate of inflation is higher than that of other measures, such as the CPI and CPIH, which is the CPI including owner-occupiers’ housing costs.

The report from the committee is the latest in a series of reports on this intractable issue. I highlight this to stress how complex it is. In 2012, the then National Statistician launched a consultation on potential changes to the RPI following concerns about the increased wedge between RPI and CPI, which had been driven primarily by the 2010 change in the collection of clothing prices. There was then a considerable response, both on matters statistical and non-statistical, and in 2013 the then National Statistician responded, arguing that the RPI did not meet the highest standards expected for a national statistic. That answers the question of the noble Lord, Lord Lea, as to why it was regarded as discredited: the UKSA stripped the RPI of its national statistic status.

However, given its widespread use in the economy, the National Statistician argued that the RPI should remain unchanged. In 2015 a review into consumer price statistics, which had been led by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, was published. This also criticised the RPI and recommended that it should be classed as a legacy measure and that its use should be actively discouraged.

Let me explain the Government’s use of inflation statistics and highlight how they have not ignored the criticisms of RPI. Since 2010 the Government have reduced their use of RPI. They have moved the indexation of direct taxes, benefits, public sector pensions and the state pension from RPI to CPI. More recently—this addresses the accusation of index shopping made by a number of noble Lords—in April 2018 the Government brought forward switching the indexation of business rates from RPI to CPI.

[Lord Tunnicliffe]

Did the Minister say that the state pension was linked to CPI? I thought it was triple-locked—I hope it is because I draw it.

[Lord Young of Cookham]

One of the locks is CPI.

[Lord Tunnicliffe]

My understanding of this part of my income is that it is the greater of CPI, RPI or, I think, 2.5%.

[Lord Young of Cookham]

We have moved the indexation of direct taxes, benefits, public sector pensions and the state pension from RPI to CPI. If that is wrong, I am sure a signal will come from the far end of the Chamber to put it right before I sit down.

I was dealing with the issue of index shopping and said that in April last year we brought forward switching the indexation of business rates from RPI to CPI. This move is expected to save businesses almost £6 billion over the next five years—at, of course, a cost to the public purse.

At Budget 2018 we outlined our policy on inflation statistics. Specifically on RPI, the Government committed to not introducing new uses of RPI and to reduce its existing uses when and where practicable. I note that the report encourages the Government to move all uses to CPI. However, the matter of practicability is key and further moves away would be complex. It has not been clear in recent years which measure of inflation it would be appropriate to use, although that picture is now getting clearer.

One sizeable area where RPI is used is in the Government’s index-linked gilts—a number of noble Lords mentioned this, including my noble friend Lady Browning— which are indexed to RPI. The Government have no plans to stop issuing index-linked gilts indexed to RPI. As the demand for RPI-linked debt is vast in comparison to CPI, particularly from the pensions sector—the largest holder of gilts by sector—the taxpayer gets far better value for money issuing into this market. Until such time as we can be satisfied that there would be sufficient demand for a new debt instrument, and that it would deliver better value for money, we will continue to issue RPI-linked gilts.

As mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Macpherson, demand for CPI-linked debt is growing. However, given that demand for RPI-linked debt is stronger, the Debt Management Office gets better value for money by continuing to meet this demand. However, in response to the noble Lord, Lord Macpherson, the issuance of new debt instruments is kept under review.

On the Government’s future use of inflation statistics, particularly in relation to CPIH, noble Lords have raised concerns over its suitability as a headline measure for the Government. Again, I pay tribute to the work of the ONS, led by John Pullinger. CPIH has undergone extensive development, choosing between different methodologies where necessary, and rigorous testing by the independent Office for National Statistics. This robust process has led to CPIH being approved as a national statistic, meaning that it is fully compliant with its code of practice for statistics. The Office for Statistics Regulation recommended to the board of the UKSA that CPIH be granted national statistic status, which is the highest kitemark of quality in our statistical system. Following this extensive development, at Budget 2018 the Government stated that their objective was for CPIH to become their headline measure over time.

The Government have not, however, set a date for CPIH to become their headline measure of inflation. This is because CPIH is a relatively new measure—a number of noble Lords touched on the issue of housing. CPIH has only recently been certified a national statistic, and it was only late last year that an updated historical back series was published, extending the series. With this back series in hand, work is now ongoing to understand its properties compared to CPI and RPI. The Government will regularly update Parliament on their progress towards using CPIH and, of course, on its broader strategy on inflation statistics.

Perhaps I may touch on some of the issues raised in the debate. The noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, raised the benefits freeze. The decision to freeze most working-age benefits from 2016-17 was one of a number of difficult decisions that the coalition Government took to put the public finances back on track. We have no plans to repeat the freeze and we expect working-age benefits to rise with inflation from April next year.

The noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, mentioned Sections 7 and 21 of the Statistics and Registration Service Act. Other noble Lords also mentioned the issue—the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, in particular. We recognise the committee’s view on this and the Government will respond to the report in due course and on that specific recommendation. Changes to RPI are a matter for the independent UK Statistics Authority and the Office for National Statistics. That is a response to the suggestion that RPI could be incrementally corrected.

In conclusion, I recognise that I have not been able to go as far as noble Lords would have wished. The Government note that this report covers complex and wide-ranging issues, and makes a number of serious and sober recommendations to both the Government and the UKSA. Given the extensive use of RPI in the economy, the complex nature of some of those uses and their interactions, and, most importantly, the effect on people and the economy, the Government believe that it is necessary to take time to consider the committee’s report carefully before responding.

The Government recognise that RPI is a flawed statistic, and stress that they have not avoided acting on the issue. They recognise that further work must be done, but note that further moves away from RPI are complex. Further, the necessary work to prepare for CPIH is yet to be completed. I say to the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, that the Government will respond as soon as practicable to noble Lords’ report and are working extremely hard so to do.

Finally, I will convey to the Chancellor the sense of frustration expressed by my noble friend Lord Forsyth and others about the time it has taken to respond to the report. I will personally relay that message.