Infrastructure (Financial Assistance) Bill

Lord Skidelsky Excerpts

Tuesday 23rd October 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Skidelsky]

My Lords, as someone who has never been averse to having a go at the Chancellor of the Exchequer, I start by saying how idiotic and puerile it is for newspapers to make a lead story of which ticket he used for his journey from Chester to London. It is George Osborne’s stewardship of the economy, not his travel arrangements, which deserves censure. However, we have an infantile press.

Three big mistakes stick out over the past two and a half years. The first was the belief that cutting down government spending would automatically produce recovery. I know the Government now claim that they never believed anything so simple or idiotic, but they did, and there is plenty of evidence to prove it. Austerity is not a recovery policy.

The second has been the Chancellor’s failure to distinguish between current and capital spending. This has made the deficit seem more dangerous than it was. The prime example of this blind spot was the £50 billion cut in capital spending. The noble Lord, Lord Adonis, has drawn attention to the devastating consequences of this for the construction industry and for house, transport, education and hospital building.

The third was the Chancellor’s belief that without a severe fiscal contraction Britain would go the way of Greece: that is, interest rates would go through the roof. This was doubly wrong. First, with an independent central bank able to buy government debt in whatever quantities were needed there was never any chance of gilt yields rising to the levels experienced by Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain. Secondly, and perhaps even more importantly, a reduction in the cost of government borrowing is no guarantee of a reduction in the cost of commercial loans sufficient to offset the collapse of the private demand for loans. That is the explanation of a point mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Desai, regarding cash mountains sitting in corporations.

All three mistakes were interrelated parts of the wrong theory of the economy. Anyone who is interested in economics must start the analysis there. I am not going to go into it, but it is well known to those who are economically literate. The results have been zero growth since George Osborne took office. That was entirely predictable and was predicted by some of us. I have been saying for two and a half years—and I am not alone—that austerity would not produce growth and it has not produced growth. Now the international agencies are saying the same thing. Slowly but surely, the Government are being driven to plan B, though the Prime Minister prefers to call it plan A-plus.

It is against that background that I give a cautious welcome to the proposals in this Bill. Better late than never, better too little than nothing at all. As I understand it, the Bill aims to do three things. First, it provides for the Government to guarantee up to £40 billion or £50 billion of “nationally significant” private infrastructure investments which have to be ready to start within 12 months of the guarantee. As the Treasury explains it, the aim is,

“to kick start critical infrastructure projects that may have stalled because of adverse credit conditions”.

That is Treasury language. The guarantees might cover key project risks such as construction, performance or revenue.

Secondly, the Government will lend money directly to private investors to enable 30 public/private partnership projects worth £6 billion to go ahead in the next 12 months; I do not think that has been mentioned yet in the debate. Finally, a £5 billion export financing facility will be available later this year to overseas buyers of British capital goods; in other words, an export credit guarantee scheme of the type we are all familiar with. I would like to reinforce what the noble Lord, Lord Adonis, said. Having cancelled about £50 billion of certain public capital spending, the Government are hoping to replace it with an equivalent amount of private capital spending, much of which will never happen. That is completely illogical.

The main difference between this Bill and the British investment bank, which I have been urging, is that my bank—I call it “my bank” because I feel a certain sense of paternity in the idea, having been floating it for the last three years—would actively raise money in the private markets for its own investment projects whereas UK Guarantees, the government scheme, merely provides some finance for projects initiated by the private sector. In other words, the government scheme is still governed by the ideology that the private sector is more likely to pick winners than a state investment bank and that that is sufficient justification for waiting for the private sector to produce its projects.

[Lord Peston]

My Lords, the logic of what is being said is not that it is more likely to pick winners but that it already has all those winners. The only things holding them back are the risks of the projects which the taxpayer is taking over. It is a new theory to replace classical economics which—as the noble Lord well knows—says savings cause investment. Now we have loan guarantees causing investment and it is just as nonsensical as a serious piece of economics.

[Lord Skidelsky]

The noble Lord is quite right. The argument can be developed, but my point about picking winners and losers is that there is no empirical evidence for it being true, as a general proposition, that the state is more likely to pick losers than the private sector. We have had many examples of that not being true. The economic collapse of 2008 is a very good one.

[Lord Giddens]

Would the noble Lord accept that there is actually evidence that the state is quite often better? If you look at the history of energy industries and most technological innovations, they have normally been kick-started by government investment. This applies to all the major technology that has transformed our lives over the past 20 or 30 years.

[Lord Skidelsky]

I am happy to accept that. I was making a more modest claim.

A mere guarantee for privately initiated schemes is bound to be less successful, apart from in the efficiency of the schemes, at securing the required volume of investment than a commitment by the Government to a definite infrastructure programme. So while I wish UK Guarantees well, a certain amount of scepticism is in order.

In the final part of my speech, I want to consider what is happening to the economy. When an economy is crawling along the bottom, any small wave is likely to lift our spirits. Over the past three quarters—that is, the past nine months—the economy has shrunk by 1%. Even if, as now expected, it achieves a positive growth of about 0.8% this quarter, that still leaves it in roughly the same place as it was a year ago. Moreover if, as commentators suggest, this boost is due to the Olympics, it will be in the nature of a windfall. However much we may rejoice in the achievements of our athletes, 28 gold medals is not enough to turn the British economy around.

However, there is still a puzzle, which is that unemployment has been static in the past few months, and even falling slightly, despite the fact that output is flat and the economically active population has increased by 550,000 over the past two years. You would therefore expect unemployment to have increased. Why has it not done so? That is the puzzle. There are several possible explanations, none of them conclusive, because the facts necessary for a convincing answer are buried in a labyrinth of tricky statistics and slippery definitions. It may be that employers have been hoarding labour, but that becomes less plausible the longer the recession goes on. Part of the answer at least must be that productivity—that is, output per hour worked—has been falling. As the Guardian put it,

“it now requires many more of us to labour away to churn out the reduced volume of stuff”.

Falling productivity is just as serious a problem for the economy as rising unemployment, and a greater problem in the longer term.

The Prime Minister claims that 900,000 extra jobs have been created in the private sector over the past two years. I never know how many it is—sometimes it is 900,000 and sometimes it is 1 million; it goes up every day, but I am sticking to the 900,000 figure for the time being. That is not of course the net increase in jobs, given that 400,000 jobs have been lost in the public sector. The net increase in jobs has been 500,000. Can the Minister, the noble Lord, Lord Newby, tell us how many of the net gains in employment are full-time? Labour market statistics suggest that more than half of them are part-time or self-employed. Can the Minister also say whether those registered on government work programmes count in the Prime Minister’s extra 900,000 private sector jobs? The point is this: if a lot of the private sector job creation consists of part-time low-skilled jobs at the bottom end of the service sector, it would explain the decline in productivity that limits the rise in unemployment, but it is a poor omen for that vibrant, high-value economy that is supposed to secure our future prosperity.

I wish the Government well in these plans because I wish the country well, but we will need much more solid evidence than we have seen so far to believe that we have turned the corner and started to repair the damage of the past two and a half years.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Newby]

I am always in awe of the culinary skills of the noble Lord, Lord Adonis, and am extremely grateful for that way of looking at it. However, whether it is a plan, recipe, menu, or none of the above, the key thing is that, as far as risk is concerned, which was the second question that I wanted to address, the Treasury will be responsible for managing the risk and assumes the contingent liabilities. Value for money, as I said earlier, is key.

The noble Lord, Lord Giddens, asked about the pension infrastructure platform, about which I should perhaps have said more. As he may know, last week, seven pension funds announced that they would be initial subscribers to the platform. They will each invest at least £100 million. We hope that the system will be up and running early next year and that it will be the first element of a much larger fund. As to why we think that pension funds might now get involved in this kind of investment whereas they have not in the past, the answer is that, in the past, they have been able to get better returns through conventional means of investing the money. At the moment, with interest rates so low, they are getting very low returns. The other problem that they have had is that, where they have gone via private equity houses which have managed infrastructure programmes, they have often found that the programmes have not worked very well and that they have been charged an arm and a leg for it. So this is a way for the funds, with support from the Treasury, to get into what could be very important new form of investment without what they have seen as being the unreasonable cost of going down a purely private sector route.

The noble Lord also asked about the relationship between this Bill and the energy Bill. The purpose of the energy Bill is to set a framework for investment in the energy sector over the medium term. Once the energy Bill, which will come forward relatively soon, is enacted, and against the framework that that Bill sets out, people looking to invest in the energy sector can form a view about what they want to do and individual projects will be eligible for support under the Bill.

The noble Lord, Lord Skidelsky, started with three nonsenses and will not be surprised that the Government do not agree absolutely with everything that he said. I find it almost incredible to think that if the Government had not been seen to get the fiscal position under control, interest rates would not have gone up. Even if they had not gone up to the levels that they are at in Greece or Spain, a single percentage point increase in interest rates, among other things, costs mortgage holders in the UK an extra £12 billion a year and would over the course of a Parliament, with all other things being equal, cost the Government about £25 billion. These are very important considerations. Interest rates would almost certainly have been higher if we had turned on the tap.

On his proposal for a British investment bank which would raise money in the private market, the noble Lord will not be surprised to know that the Treasury view is that, if that bit of the state is raising money in the private market and conventional government borrowing is happening in the same private market at the same time, the markets will judge the pair of them together as a common pool of demand from the UK Government. Therefore, we could not segregate borrowing for a British investment bank without it having consequences for the way in which all government borrowing was viewed.

The noble Lord asked how many of the net gains in employment were self-employed or part time. There is a false assumption that working for oneself or working part time are somehow second-class things to do or things that people do not necessarily choose to do. Some people are forced to do one or the other. However, when I was made redundant in the last property crash in 1992, I in effect became self-employed by setting up my own company and it was one of the better things that I have ever done. It did not mean that I was economically out of the market or that I was not able to grow anything. Many people who become self-employed find that they are successfully self-employed. Equally, many people who work part time—and even the Guardian accepts that the figure is at least 80%—do so through choice rather than because they are forced to.

[Lord Skidelsky]

Would the Minister be kind enough to answer my question? What proportion of the Prime Minister’s 900,000 new jobs are part time and what proportion are full time? Further, are those employed under government work schemes included in the figure of 900,000?

[Lord Newby]

I am afraid that I do not have those figures to hand but I will write to the noble Lord.

The noble Baroness, Lady Wheatcroft, raised concerns about continuing the old system of PFI. Many people share her concerns about the way that PFI has worked, and in any future schemes I know that the Government will seek to avoid the problems of the past in that respect.

The noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, asked several questions, one of which concerned the criteria were for which projects come forward. As I said in my opening remarks, the five principle criteria are that the schemes be nationally or economically significant, financially credible, good value for money for the taxpayer, not solely dependent on a guarantee to proceed, and ready to start construction in 12 months. He asked whether the £50 billion affects the PSBR. The answer is that it affects the PSBR only if guarantees are called upon. My understanding is that if it is a contingent liability, this does not affect what I still think of as the PSBR.

The noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, also asked about the Thames tunnel and whether we might have an independent review. Living as I do on the Thames and being subject to many public meetings about the Thames tunnel, it seems to me that the current programme of proposals on the tunnel involves a huge amount of consultation and much discussion of alternatives. Having got this far on what seems to be an unavoidable necessity, I certainly would be extremely loath to think that we had to go back to the drawing board and start again with an independent inquiry.