UK Economy: Growth, Inflation and Productivity

Lord Sikka Excerpts

Thursday 29th June 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Sikka (Lab)]

My Lords, I thank my noble friend Lord Eatwell for facilitating this debate. I will say a few words about investment and productivity. Between 1974 and 2008, the UK’s productivity grew at an average rate of 2.3% a year, and it has really stagnated ever since. It is not the workers’ fault. UK workers work for longer hours than many of their European counterparts. In 2022, average annual hours worked by a German worker were 1,341, compared with 1,532 for a British worker. Yet, productivity of a German worker is up to 19% higher.

The reason for that is higher investment into productive assets and skills. With 17.3% of GDP going into productive assets in 2021, the UK is ranked 27th out of 30 OECD countries. This is despite a period of low inflation, low interest rates and low corporate taxes, with high tax incentives and negative real wage growth. None of those managed to address the block to investment—what I call the investment strike.

Private sector investment is some £354 billion less in real terms compared to the G7 median position from 2005 to 2021. The major reason for that is that British workers’ spending power has been depleted. Why would somebody invest when people just do not have the money to buy goods and services? The UK is a major financial centre, but the City of London is hooked on short-term returns, which is aided by a shareholder-centric model of corporate governance. The Bank of England chief economist, Andy Haldane, noted that in 1970 major companies paid out £10 in dividends out of every £100 of profits, but by 2015 that became between £60 to £70. I have been looking at the accounts of water companies, and they have been paying up to 80% and even more of their earnings in dividends, which is accompanied by a squeeze on labour and investment.

The private sector has little appetite for long-term risks. The state traditionally filled that void in a mixed economy. After the Second World War, the entrepreneurial state built ships, railways, steel, water, gas, electricity, mining and many other industries. It directly invested in emerging technologies and emerging industries such as biotechnology, information technology and telecommunications industries. As a result, by 1976 the proceeds of prosperity reduced the national debt from 270% to 49% of GDP.

But now the state has basically been sidelined—the mantra of the neoliberal coup that has plagued this country from the late 1970s. The state has been restructured and become a guarantor of corporate profits, as evidenced by PFIs, privatisations and outsourcing. Privatised industries have rarely provided the promised investment—just look at the water industry. Since its privatisation in England in 1989, no new water reservoirs have been built, while the population has increased. It just does not respond. If the UK public sector had emulated the G7 median practices over the period 2006-21, an additional £208 billion in real terms would have been invested, but the Government basically opted out of that.

UK productivity is damaged by what I call dead weights. One good example of that is the City of London and the finance industry. We all need bank accounts, insurance, pensions, debit and credit cards and so on; what we do not need are the destructive practices of the City, such as frauds, mis-selling, rigging interest and foreign exchange rates, money laundering, tax abuse and unrestrained gambling. None of that generates any productivity. One study at the University of Sheffield estimated that between 1995 and 2015 the finance industry made a negative contribution of £4,500 billion to the UK economy—and it sucks up a lot of graduates, which denies other industries skilled labour.

Accountancy is another dead weight. We have nearly 400,000 professionally qualified accountants in the UK, the highest number per capita in the world. About 100,000 of these are devoted to tax abuse, although they call it tax planning—a euphemism. It does not generate any productivity; it actually takes money away from the public purse and ensures that the state cannot invest in social infrastructure or other industries. The Government do absolutely nothing, and have not investigated any of the accounting firms involved in this—they have not prosecuted any or fined any. It is business as usual.

I hope the Minister can tell us whether the Government are willing to change their economic and political model and address the systemic problems that are plaguing this country. That will include reforming the shareholder-centric model of corporate governance, which will mean addressing issues about equitable distribution of income and wealth, dealing with the dead weight and, above all, giving the state a direct role in the economy. If the state will not take long-term risks, nobody else will.