Queen’s Speech

Lord Sharkey Excerpts

Wednesday 15th May 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Sharkey]

My Lords, it is a pleasure to follow my noble friend Lord Northbrook, and I will follow him in speaking about the situation in Cyprus. I declare an interest as chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. However, before I do that, I join others in saying how sorry I am that our 0.7% aid commitment was not in the gracious Speech. I have heard it said that this omission resulted from the negative reaction of some Tory MPs. If this is true, it is a pity. If it is not true, it is hard to see why the 0.7% commitment was left out. In either case, I am glad that we are currently on target and that Nick Clegg has confirmed that he remains committed to writing the 0.7% into law.

When I spoke about Cyprus in the debate on the humble Address last year, I was, on the whole, fairly pessimistic about the prospects for reunification, as was the UN’s representative Alexander Downer and most of those involved in the process of negotiation at the time. I pointed out a year ago, as the noble Lord, Lord Northbrook, has done today, that there was a fundamental reason for being pessimistic—namely, that the negotiations over reunification had been going on for around 40 years, using the same methods, often with the same people and always with the same result: failure.

I argued then that some new event, stimulus or approach was needed if any progress were to be made. In the past 12 months there has been no shortage of new events. Most obviously, the economic situation in the south has worsened very dramatically; the region itself has become more and more unstable as the conflict in Syria continues and as the danger of Turkey being drawn into the conflict increases; and Turkey itself has grown in economic strength, regional influence and overall importance.

Furthermore, the existence of huge gas reserves in Cypriot territorial waters now presents itself as a possible way out of the economic difficulties being experienced on both sides of the island. There are the cautious beginnings of a feeling among those involved in the effort to reunify that there may just be, for the first time in many years, a real opportunity to make progress. I would not go so far as to say that there is yet optimism, but the pervading pessimism may have abated a little.

There are some encouraging signs. The election of President Anastasiades, who voted for the Annan plan, is surely encouraging. The realisation that the gas finds may help all Cyprus economically is encouraging. The work being done in this area by the FCO with the two diaspora communities will, I am sure, prove to be helpful if it is developed and continued. In addition, Alexander Downer, the UN’s representative, is back and active on the island—not entirely to everyone’s complete satisfaction, of course. Five days ago, the Cyprus Mail carried an article by a former Greek Cypriot ambassador, headlined,

“Alexander Downer’s odious transgression”.

I acknowledge of course that the reunification process cannot currently be right at the top of President Anastasiades’s agenda, and I know that the fact that negotiations have not yet recommenced is a source of real frustration to Turkey and to Turkish Cypriots. Turkey’s Foreign Minister was quoted in Today’s Zaman two weeks ago as saying that the Turkish Cypriot side’s call to restart talks should be urgently addressed. By contrast, the Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister has recently said that negotiations should wait until October. I think that both points of view are entirely understandable. October is, after all, only four months away, which is not a long time in the context of 40 years of negotiation.

I remain encouraged that President Anastasiades has explicitly restated the high priority that he assigns to the reunification process. The fact is that both sides of the island badly need the gas finds to be exploited, or at least to be recognised as commercially exploitable. The economic difficulties of the south are well known and highly visible, but the north is an economic dependency of Turkey and it needs investment on a large scale if it is to escape poverty, fulfil its citizens’ aspirations and realise its potential. Gas would go a long way to helping this. It is estimated that $3 billion a year could accrue to Cyprus from gas, and this would be on top of the estimated 3% per annum growth in GDP predicted as a consequence of reunification.

The difficulties to overcome are immense. Where the pipeline should come ashore, how supply is to be guaranteed free of interference and how the proceeds are to be managed are just three obvious and fairly difficult questions. None the less, without gas revenue, the economic prospects for both sides are really very bleak indeed and I think that this realisation may have got home or be getting home.

In discussions and critiques of the reunification process, inevitably a lot of attention has been paid to the governing UN resolutions and to the treaty of guarantee signed by the UK, as is quite right. However, I think that in the past the UN resolutions may have been subjected to a very strict reading, which might not have helped creative thinking or discussion.

Much attention has also been paid to the fact that the negotiations must be held by Cypriots for Cypriots. This requirement has been interpreted far too narrowly. It is entirely possible for interested third parties to involve themselves at the invitation of the principals without contravening this rule. This applies to us. All the parties acknowledge our legitimate interests and obligations as the ex-colonial power and treaty guarantor. All parties welcome, at least some of the time, our efforts to help. I know that the FCO is aware of the constant need for tact and delicacy in what is a complex and often passionately contested situation.

I think that now is the time for the UK to increase its involvement in Cyprus. I urge the Government to continue to look for ways of persuading both sides of the island to expand their traditional models of negotiation, as the noble Lord, Lord Northbrook, said, to create room for the voices of civil society—and women in particular—and for the business community inside these discussions, and to continue here their valuable dialogue with the diasporas. I also urge the Government to press the case for an early agreement on confidence-building measures. It would be very helpful if the sides could be persuaded of the merits of gradualism and of the defects of “nothing agreed until everything agreed”.

The people of Cyprus need to see progress. For 40 years, there has been essentially none at all. There needs to be something that gives new hope and fresh energy to the popular desire—such as it is—for reunification.

Things have changed significantly in the past 12 months. We may now be looking at the most favourable set of circumstances for successful negotiation for reunification that we have seen or can foresee. It would be an absolute tragedy if negotiations continued to fail. It would be an absolute tragedy if both sides of the island were condemned to poverty because the gas fields could not be exploited as a result of the continued division of the island.