Covid-19: Scientific Advice

Lord Scriven Excerpts

Wednesday 17th June 2020 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Lord Scriven]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what specific action they took to address COVID-19 as a result of the meeting of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies on 11 February.

[The Minister of State, Cabinet Office (Lord True) (Con) [V]]

My Lords, on 11 February, SAGE advised that the reasonable worst-case scenario for the coronavirus pandemic should continue to reflect influenza planning assumptions. In the light of this, the Government continued to prepare for and mitigate the worst excesses of the reasonable worst-case scenario. This included holding a number of COBRA meetings and increasing activity in a number of areas, including excess deaths planning, developing options for a surge of care staff and further developing legislative options.

[Lord Scriven (LD) [V]]

The SPI-M consensus statement to that meeting says:

“It is a realistic probability that there is already sustained transmission in the UK, or that it will … become established in the coming weeks.”


Why did the Government not act on this scientific knowledge? Two weeks later, care homes received government advice stating that

“there is currently no transmission of COVID-19 in the community. It is therefore very unlikely that anyone receiving care in a care home … will become infected.”

[Lord True [V]]

My Lords, it is important to remind the House that at the time of the meeting on 11 February there were only eight confirmed cases in the United Kingdom. The Government have always been guided by the best scientific advice. At every stage, scientists have sought to give us the best information about what was a very novel infection—it still is. Ministers and officials tried to take the right decisions in the public interest. We will come out of this best by holding to the sense of national interest and resolve with which we went into it and holding any inquests when the pandemic is beaten.