Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (All Tiers) (England) Regulations 2020
Lord Robathan Excerpts(3 years, 11 months ago)
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Lord Robathan
Leave out from “that” to the end and insert “this House declines to approve the draft Regulations because no adequate impact analysis of the social, economic and health costs of the restrictions to address the COVID-19 pandemic, compared to the benefits of those restrictions, has been laid before Parliament.”
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, this is arguably the worst crisis—certainly the worst economic crisis—of my lifetime. Yesterday, as my noble friend referred to, we had, I am afraid, a totally inadequate government benefit analysis, belatedly produced at very short notice to persuade MPs to back these latest measures. It is a very poor document, and, if anyone does not believe me, they should read it.
However, there are some costs that we know about, and all these decisions regarding the crisis should be based on evidence and facts, not fear or conjecture. The costs were listed by the Chancellor of the Exchequer last week in an excellent speech, and I shall not repeat his detailed points. His main point was that the
“economic emergency has only just begun”
and that this will be
“the largest fall in output for more than 300 years”—[Official Report, Commons, 25/11/20; col. 827.]
since the Great Frost of 1709, which even I do not recall.
There are pubs and restaurants in particular, as well as innumerable other businesses, large and small, that are closed now and will never reopen. Unemployment will rocket and the young will find fewer vacancies and opportunities for employment. The economy may recover relatively quickly, but future generations—our children and grandchildren—will be saddled with huge debts for decades. In brief, that is the cost: billions and billions. The restrictions we are discussing today are really another lockdown in all but name, and, as Dr Nabarro of the WHO said, lockdowns make
“poor people an awful lot poorer”.
What about the benefits? On 1 October, the Health Secretary said that restrictions were necessary to prevent
“hundreds of thousands of deaths”—[Official Report, Commons, 1/10/20; col. 503.]
Some were sceptical. If it were true, it would be a ghastly scenario and a consequence of not locking down. Last year, there were 623,000 deaths in the UK—hundreds of thousands; on average, 1,700 deaths each day, each of which is tragic and causes immense pain to family and friends who remain. I suspect that most of us have suffered similar pain.
According to the NHS and ONS statistics, a total of 3,123 people under the age of 60 have died from coronavirus in English hospitals. Of these, 349 did not have known pre-existing conditions. Among the under-40s, a total of 247 people have died from the virus in English hospitals, of whom 46 had no known comorbidities. All these deaths are tragic but, every day, an average of 450 people in the UK die of cancer, approximately half of whom are under 75. Suicide is the biggest killer among men under 45. In England and Wales last year, 2,135 men of that cohort killed themselves. Admittedly, coronavirus has only been recognised for some nine months, but younger people under 40 or 45 seem more likely to die from suicide or cancer than from coronavirus. Indeed, the total deaths attributed to coronavirus are dwarfed by deaths from cancer. To make matters worse, cancer-screening and treatment have been curtailed, suicides appear to be on the rise because of isolation, and mental health problems are certainly an increasing concern. If we are destroying our economy to save lives, we should look at all these facts—not vague assertions—and note that the total deaths in England in October were only eight more than in October 2019, which statisticians would call negligible.
Do lockdowns work? Many people suggest not; I do not know. I would imagine that total isolation must surely stop the transmission of infection, but in Leicester, which has been under stringent restrictions similar to lockdown for about five months, it is only now that positive cases are dropping. Why is that? I wonder whether my noble friend the Minister can enlighten me and the House. We were told that hospitals may be overwhelmed without these restrictions. Can the Minister tell us how many hospitals are completely full, and how many beds are occupied above the seasonal norm? Also, how many beds are occupied in the excellent Nightingale hospitals? I have been told that none are.
How many people have actually been infected? I would think that that is a critical statistic in determining policy to combat the virus. The Government’s figure for those who have tested positive is just over 1.6 million, but most people would accept that it must be a lot higher—what with Prince Charles, Prince William, the Prime Minister, half the Cabinet, both my children, et cetera, having had it. Can my noble friend give us any government estimate of the real numbers?
I saw media reports that the average age for Covid deaths in the UK was higher than average life expectancy. This had to be fake news, I thought, but I checked the ONS figures and, indeed, the average age for Covid deaths is 82.4, while average life expectancy is at 81.4. Can my noble friend confirm these figures, and that those dying from coronavirus will actually have lived longer on average than those dying for other reasons?
The Government are in a very difficult position. I understand. This unpleasant virus is highly contagious and killing many people prematurely. I am sorry to hear about my noble friend’s godfather. However, we do not know enough about the virus, so we have to go on the facts. I would be grateful for clear and prompt answers to my questions so that we can see whether there has been any weighing up of costs and benefits.
In the debate on 4 November, it was said that some Peers were putting down amendments to double their speaking times, which seemed “a bit iffy”. It was suggested that some were playing games. I was accused of “having form” in that regard and of disregarding the science. Those of us who really care about our country’s future are not playing games and resent such insulting accusations. Long-standing Members of this House tell me that we should be courteous to each other even when we disagree, so I avoid personal attacks. I just counsel the Member concerned that I have experience of robust comments and can give every bit as good as I get.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer said that we must learn to live with the virus and not fear it. My young female dentist, who I saw in early November, described the second lockdown as “nuts”. I will listen to the Minister’s response, but currently I intend to divide the House, since it seems to me that there has been no adequate analysis of the costs and benefits of this policy.
The Lord Speaker (Lord Fowler)
I should inform the House that, if this amendment is agreed to, I cannot call any of the other amendments by reason of pre-emption. I call the next speaker, the noble Lord, Lord Hunt of Kings Heath.
Baroness Thornton (Lab)
Perhaps I may say how pleased I was to see the noble Baroness, Lady Brinton, in the Chamber today, joining in our debates.
I thank the Minister for introducing these very important regulations to the House. I hope that he, like me, does not feel too second division, as the debate in the other place was opened by the Prime Minister and the leader of the Opposition, but I am sure that he and I can probably do more than justice to this subject. I think that his right honourable friend the Prime Minister might be feeling just a little worried at the moment because I gather that he had 56 rebels on the vote that has just taken place in the Commons.
This statutory instrument sets out that the Secretary of State must review whether each area that is part of tier 2 or tier 3 should continue to be part of those tiers at least once every 14 days, with the first review to be carried out by 16 December 2020, and review the need for each of the tier 1, tier 2 and tier 3 restrictions at least once every 28 days. The first review is to be carried out by 30 December 2020, so I hope that the Minister will have some Christmas. The shame of the statutory instrument is that it offers a binary choice. If this were primary legislation, we could really test the legitimate concerns in a way that we are not able to do this evening. The regulations will expire on 2 February 2021. I urge the Government to think very carefully about how the discussion on renewal, or whatever happens next, takes place. We are many months into this regulatory review; I think it is time that it ended and we had proper primary legislation.
The allocation of the areas of the revised tiers was announced on 26 November. As the noble Baroness, Lady Hayman, said in her very wise contribution, it has cemented the deep sense of divisiveness in the nation. The Government have published information alongside a Written Statement which sets out the rationale behind the allocations. Many noble Lords have already criticised that, so I will not go into detail on it. However, it means that tier 1, which had 23.5 million people in it pre-lockdown, now has 713,000 people, and tier 2 now covers 32 million people whereas it previously covered 24 million. So it is not surprising that people are concerned about where they have been put.
The new map of the three-tier system in England looks very much like a depiction of the north-south divide, and as Danny Dorling, the Oxford Professor of Human Geography, said on Saturday:
“What’s certain is that the key to understanding the map is the underlying social and economic geography of England. To understand the changing medical geography of this pandemic, you must first understand how the country lives and works”.
There is the rub. If the Government do not have a real understanding of how people live their lives, the conditions under which they work, the security or otherwise of their jobs, the adequacy of their homes, the transport they rely on, their relationship with schools and local facilities and their reliance on informal support networks, it is difficult to see how the current proposals and the ones that have gone before can work effectively.
The combination of vaccines, mass-scale rapid turnaround testing and therapeutic advances offers a way out of the current Covid-19 challenges in the spring and early summer, but in the meantime, restricting social contact is the only way of reducing the pandemic, protecting our National Health Service and allowing it to do its job, as my noble friend Lord Hunt and the noble Baroness, Lady Watkins, explained. We can see some success, and I applaud that, but the Minister needs to understand that many people believe that the success in getting the R rate down has been achieved despite the Government and not because of them. Why do we need to be still learning the lessons of being too slow?
It is of course welcome news that the R rate is below one, but today we learned what that means—and it does not mean that we can return to any sort of normal life. The news on the vaccines is of course tremendously good. Like others, I am allowing myself to hope that one day I will be able to see my sisters, nieces and nephews in Yorkshire and to hug people. I am also hoping not to have to queue for the supermarket, and maybe I will be able to sit at the same table as my noble friend Lady Wheeler in the Guest Dining Room, rather than sitting six feet apart at separate tables.
However, we have been here before: overpromising and underdelivering. As my right honourable friend the leader of the Opposition said, we are now on plan 5. The slowness with which we have entered these different plans is the reason why the UK economy has been hit particularly hard. As the OBR reported, a sharp slowdown in activity meant that the UK experienced one of the larger falls and that activity was then slower to recover.
The shame of this is that the Government learned none of the lessons from the first wave of the crisis and failed to listen to SAGE—or to Labour, when we argued for a two to three-week circuit-break to coincide with half term. Instead, we have had a longer national lockdown and the economy has taken a bigger hit.
It is therefore vital that the tiers work, and that the relaxation of Christmas does not lead to a further spike and lockdown in the new year. How could that be done? We have a few ideas. We need to end the topdown, centralised model of testing, tracing, isolating and supporting. Local teams with local knowledge must be put in charge, and they must be given the resources to do the job. We need to get rid of Serco and give the testing, tracing, isolating and supporting to our local teams. Frankly, if the Government have spent £22 billion on this and it is still not working, there has to be an alternative.
We need to ensure routine testing for all high-risk workplaces and high transmission areas for NHS and care staff, of course, but those in retail, hospitality and transport, teachers and pupils in secondary schools should also have access to tests whenever they need them.
Furthermore we need to overhaul the failing support for self-isolation, for both businesses and individuals. We need to support our businesses. The Government’s approach to supporting areas under local restrictions is fundamentally unfair and risks a gulf in support opening up across the country. The idea that the Isle of Wight should receive the same amount of support as Manchester is patently unfair.
Businesses are in the dark about the future of the furlough scheme, which is up for review in January. What will happen next? The Chancellor is still refusing to help millions of people excluded from his support schemes for the self-employed, despite having had months to plug those gaps.
What about our students? What will be the impact of their return home before Christmas? What is the Government’s assessment of the risk of students contracting the virus between having the test—which I hope will be available in the universities—and returning home? What steps are the Government taking to ensure that transport capacity is not overwhelmed by the numbers of non-socially-distanced travellers next week? It is completely irresponsible for the Government to leave tier 3 areas across the north and the Midlands in the lurch again.
What about Christmas? What is the scientific assessment of the risk that five days of relaxation will entail? I raised this matter yesterday with the Minister, and I am still seeking an answer. Covid-19 cases have spiked across Canada in the past month, since Thanksgiving and Halloween. On 12 October, Canada had 185,000 Covid cases. Only six weeks later that number has nearly doubled. Canadians and Americans alike are saying that the surge is proof that nothing is worth the risk. I would, therefore, like the Minister to address this issue: what will the cost of Christmas be in infections?
Does the Minister believe that the three-tier system provides for the necessary post-Christmas restrictions, or is a third lockdown inevitable? Given the prediction that cases will increase after Christmas, what plans are in place to prepare the NHS and safeguard services in the coming months, until a vaccine allows life to return to normal? Front-line resilience is already at a premium and will be critical over the next weeks and months, particularly after Christmas, especially if we do not wish to look back on those activities with very deep regret.
With regard to the amendments to these Motions proposed by the gaggle of Conservatives, I sort of feel sorry for the Minister. It is noticeable that yet again the Government find themselves under fire from their own side. As I have said at least twice to the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, he has form in being a Covid restriction objector and seems prepared to risk people’s lives instead of supporting them to do the right thing. This is my view of the noble Lord’s—
Baroness Thornton (Lab)
Well, that is my view; I think it is right. I think that is what will happen if he gets his way. The noble Lord does not seem to understand that, until his Government actually manage to build and support the systems that will contain the virus, particularly in deprived communities, his proposal would only cost lives—and they will be the lives in our poorest communities, the BAME and the vulnerable.
I believe the other two are legitimate regrets and at least show consistency from the movers. However, as we have in the past, we on these Benches will abstain if any of the movers choose to test the opinion of the House.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, my noble friend the Minister has been a bit on his own this evening—actually, he has been entirely on his own—but I will say that he has made a pretty good fist of defending these regulations. However, when he says that 78 people voting against the Government in the Commons is an emphatic victory, as a former Whip there, I would say that since most of them are Conservative Back-Benchers, the Whips’ Office will be pretty worried.
I said earlier that this is the worst economic crisis of my life, and possibly the worst crisis of my lifetime. I think the nation is engaged in a most extraordinary act of self-harm. However, we need to look at this in the round. Before I sit down, I just say to the noble Baroness, Lady Thornton, that I think it is unworthy of her to say of me that I wish to see people die, because that is not the case. I thought about giving my view of her—I will, if she wishes—but I thought it would be unworthy and I shall show some restraint.
I have been listening to wiser counsel than my own, and there is not an appetite to force my fatal amendment to a Division. I think it might undermine the better vote we have had in the House of Commons of those who are unhappy with the way government policy is going. I am used to putting my money where my mouth is; however, on this occasion I will not divide the House and I will please the House, and especially the Chief Whip, by saying that I have made my point and I am unlikely—although it is not impossible—to table another fatal amendment. I think he knows what I think.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
At end insert “but that this House regrets that the restrictions being introduced to address the COVID-19 pandemic do not adequately consider the impact of such restrictions on the (1) number of jobs lost, (2) businesses permanently destroyed, (3) costs to taxpayers, and (4) consequences for mental and physical health, and regrets that Her Majesty’s Government have not provided a strategy for the lifting of the restrictions put in place to address the COVID-19 pandemic.”
DHSC Answers to Written Questions
Lord Robathan Excerpts(3 years, 12 months ago)
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The Lord Speaker (Lord Fowler)
My Lords, I remind Ministers that the instruction to be brief applies to their answers, as well as to questions from other Members.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, I do not underestimate the pressure under which the Department of Health has been put and pay tribute to my noble friend for the number of times that he comes here to answer Questions. However, the data behind this virus is hugely important. I put down a Question asking about the number of NHS workers—doctors and nurses—who have been killed by the virus. The answer that came back was: “We don’t know”. Surely, we must know this. I have also asked a question in this Chamber, not a written one, about what the strategy is without vaccinations. A vaccine has now come, but we must know what the strategy is. Are we going to go into another lockdown if the infection rate rises again? Perhaps the Minister can answer that now?
Lord Bethell (Con)
My Lords, matching the data on deaths with the HR records of the NHS is actually very difficult. It cannot be done easily, or even accurately. Our strategy is crystal clear: to protect the NHS, keep the schools open and encourage the economy while we wait for the vaccine to be deployed.
Covid-19: Conflicts of Interest
Lord Robathan Excerpts(4 years ago)
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Lord Bethell (Con)
My Lords, there is a very clear code for special advisers. They have line management through the Secretary of State and often on to Downing Street. The role of spads during the pandemic has been exceptional. I pay tribute to the large number of spads who made a huge difference, and I am very proud of the work that they have done.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, I have a certain sense of déjà vu, since this is almost exactly the same question that was asked yesterday, so I will try not to be repetitive. I know my noble friend is, like me, grateful to those who came forward and freely, pro bono, gave their time, expertise and experience to assist in this terrible crisis. I know he will also, like me, share the view that some people are grubbing around, looking for any dirt they can sling that will deter good public-spirited people from coming forward in future. I have one specific question: could the Minister tell me how long, typically, a procurement process would last if you are looking to get PPE through the Civil Service procurement procedures?
Lord Bethell (Con)
My Lords, my noble friend makes a very good point. I cannot tell him how long it would typically take but I can tell him that if everything went as smoothly as possible, 25 days is the absolute minimum that a procurement process could take. That is why, on 18 March, new guidelines for procurement were put in place. The PPE team converted those into a very diligent eight-step process, the effectiveness of which the NAO has paid tribute to. We have put in place exactly the kind of reasonable processes necessary to respond to a pandemic like this, resulting in the purchase of billions of items of PPE to protect those on the front line of our healthcare.
Department of Health and Social Care: Unpaid Advisers
Lord Robathan Excerpts(4 years ago)
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Lord Bethell (Con)
I take this opportunity to thank the very large number of Members of this House who contacted me during that period. My inbox was filled with thousands of emails every day, including emails from Lib Dem, Labour, Cross-Bench and Tory Peers, all of them seeking to help us during our time of need. I sought to reply to as many as I could, but I fear that I did not reply to enough and I did not mean any discourtesy. I spoke to a large number of those people, as my transparency register makes very clear. The telephone call on 6 April to which the noble Baroness has referred was not in any way inappropriate. I am extremely grateful to all those who stepped forward to help us when we needed it.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, this is a huge crisis in unprecedented times. My noble friend the Minister has already thanked those who are trying to help the country at a very difficult time. Does he find it regrettable, as I do, that some are sniping at those who, for good reasons of public service, are giving their time, energy and expertise pro bono in service to this country and everyone in this Chamber?
Lord Bethell (Con)
My Lords, scrutiny of appointments, a commitment to transparency and declaration of interests are absolute values that we should all subscribe to. However, sneering at those who step forward to help, denigrating the intentions of volunteers who try to play their role and smearing the good name of people who have done the right thing does not have any role in this House.
Covid-19 Update
Lord Robathan Excerpts(4 years ago)
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Lord Bethell (Con)
My Lords, the noble Lord raises a very good point. We pay tribute to all those who stepped forward, whether they were young doctors at the end of their training or older doctors who were returning to the profession. It was a really important and touching moment when those doctors stepped forward. He is right that not all of them were needed or used during the pandemic. My understanding, from the deployment team, is that they are looking at all avenues to have the largest army of people possible in order to use the vaccine. I am not exactly sure of the exact status of the 27,000 doctors he alluded to, but I would be glad to write to him with details.
Lord Robathan (Con) [V]
My Lords, according to local media, on Tuesday the city of Leicester—I live in Leicestershire—recorded the highest number of infections since the beginning of the pandemic. Leicester has been locked down since June, so could my noble friend confirm that this is the case, and, if it is, could he say whether this has happened because we do not know very much about the virus, whether it is the case that lockdowns do not work—as some people say—or is he going to blame the good people of Leicester for not abiding by the regulations?
Lord Bethell (Con)
I greatly thank the people of Leicester for their patience with the lockdown and with the very large number of measures that have been put in place there. The noble Lord is aware that some communities live and work very close to each other, and the transmission of the disease is affected by a very large number of factors. I cannot explain to him exactly why the infection rates are so high in Leicester today, but I absolutely applaud all those who have been working hard in that city to keep the epidemic at bay.
Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Restrictions) (England) (No. 4) Regulations 2020
Lord Robathan Excerpts(4 years ago)
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Lord Robathan
Leave out from “That” to the end and insert “this House declines to approve the draft Regulations because no impact analysis of the social, economic and health costs of a national lockdown, compared to the benefits of addressing the transmission of COVID-19 of such a lockdown, has been laid before Parliament, and because Her Majesty’s Government have not published a comprehensive long-term strategy for the lifting of all the restrictions put in place to address the pandemic.”
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, I declare an interest in that I am 69 and am definitely entering the danger zone for coronavirus. Actually, I believe I had it in late March after lockdown. It was largely asymptomatic and possibly acquired here in this House. I appreciate that my noble friend the Minister and the Government are in an impossibly difficult position. Nobody doubts that this is an unpleasant, virulent and highly contagious virus that is killing people, especially the old and vulnerable. Beyond that, there is huge disagreement among the public, politicians and scientists.
This morning, I attended a meeting with Sir Jeremy Farrar of SAGE. He was very reasonable, plausible and balanced but not ultimately convincing because of differing and competing views. For instance, Professor Heneghan, of the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine—I emphasise “evidence-based”—said that the R rate in Liverpool is falling among the over-60s. Apparently, Covid cases in Liverpool hospitals are falling. King’s College London believes that the R rate in England and Wales now is approximately one and Tim Spector, a professor of epidemiology at King’s, thinks that the peak of the second wave has passed. Professor Gupta at Oxford and many other eminent scientists disagree with the SAGE analysis. We were told on Saturday by Sir Patrick Vallance of a trajectory of 4,000 deaths each day without a lockdown and yesterday, the Chief Medical Officer, under questioning, reduced that number to 1,000.
What I am saying is that nobody really knows, and scientists and doctors disagree. For instance, just over 1 million people have officially had Covid but I think that there are very many more. I suspect that all of us know people who believe that they have had it. We do not know how many cases are hospital-acquired infections; yesterday, Jeremy Hunt said that it is 18%. We do not know when and if a viable and effective vaccine will be produced. We still do not know why people have such totally different responses and symptoms. My son had the virus before the lockdown in mid-March. He recovered but said that he could not taste or smell anything. That was not declared a symptom until late May. This morning, Professor Farrar said that we still do not know much about the long-term effects—so-called long Covid. Of course, respiratory diseases such as pneumonia have a lingering effect that sometimes takes six months or more to recover from. The truth is that nobody knows much about this virus or the epidemic.
However, we now know that one has only a 50% chance of survival if put on a ventilator. We were not told that in April during the panic to get more ventilators, so advice changes. We know that only something like 320 deaths from coronavirus, every one of which is a tragedy, have occurred among those aged under 60 without comorbidities. Among the under-40s, there has been a total of about 250 deaths from the virus during the epidemic, overwhelmingly of people who were already vulnerable with comorbidities.
We know that our young people—our children and our grandchildren—will be saddled with debt for decades, as my parent’s generation spent decades paying off debt from the Second World War. Will our children ever forgive us? We know that unemployment will rocket next year. We know that businesses, large and small, will be closed in their droves. In hospitality, pubs and restaurants will close their doors tonight and many will never reopen. We know that cancer treatment has ground to a halt for hundreds and thousands of patients. We know that domestic abuse and mental health issues have increased dramatically—as, it appears, have suicides. We know that students are locked into halls of residence, ruining their time at university; they are turned into criminals if they leave. They will then face a desolate employment landscape in which to find a job. Therefore, is it not reasonable to ask for a cost-benefit or risk analysis? Yesterday, Robert Jenrick, a Cabinet Minister for whom I have a high regard, said that there had been no impact assessment. Surely we should expect such an assessment before embarking on a serious act of national self-harm, yet the Government do not appear to have done one.
The second part of my amendment calls for an explanation of the Government’s comprehensive long-term strategy. In the last century, when I was in the Army, it was a given that one explained to all one’s soldiers the rationale behind orders if one expected them to follow them. It is called leadership. I ask the Minister to tell the House what the strategy is behind government policy. The country is locked down so infections should fall, but when restrictions are lifted, it seems to me that infections may rise again, meaning a third wave. Then what? An effective and reliable vaccine may appear, or it may not. It may be only 50% reliable anyway, as I read from another expert. As I understand it, a vaccine makes the patient’s body produce antibodies, but now we are told that many recovered patients lose their antibodies within six months. Is that the case?
As a loyal Conservative, I want to believe that the Government have a strategy but my credulity has been strained somewhat. We were originally told, until late August, that face masks were essentially of no use. We have been told to go back to work. It is only two or three weeks since we were told that there would definitely not be a second national lockdown. I regret to say that an enormous amount of good will and trust has evaporated. We are told that the public support a second lockdown. I am not so sure, but the role of leadership is to lead. We need courageous leadership to explain the costs, benefits and risks surrounding this crisis and this measure. We need to a clear strategy to take us through this crisis.
I do not underestimate the extraordinarily difficult choices before the Government; nor do I envy Ministers having to make these decisions. I will listen to the 50 or more contributions and look forward to the Minister’s response, but I currently intend to divide the House on this amendment.
The Deputy Speaker (Lord Haskel) (Lab) [V]
I should inform the House that if the amendment in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Robathan, is agreed to, I cannot call any of the other amendments by reason of pre-emption.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, my noble friend the Minister—and I hope he still is a friend—may have noted that there was not a lot of support for his position in the House. I thought the noble Baroness, Lady Thornton, was somewhat rude to me in this allegedly courteous House. I remind her of what Dr David Nabarro of the WHO said. I remember him doing excellent work when I was on the DfID Select Committee. He said that lockdowns make
“poor people an awful lot poorer”.
I have not heard any Member of the Labour side say that.
Wise counsel and friends who I respect told me to pull my punches, not to push this amendment and to wait for something more important. I am not sure that there is anything more important. Now is the time to stand up and be counted. I do not wish to defend my weakness to my locked-down children or to the locked-down young people of this country who are suffering, in my opinion, unnecessarily. Time will tell whether I am right or if the Government are. I may easily be wrong—I have been before—but I would like to divide the House on this amendment to the Motion.
Covid-19: Test Results
Lord Robathan Excerpts(4 years ago)
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Lord Bethell (Con)
The noble Baroness is right to cite the use of wastewater analysis. The innovations and partnerships team at test and trace has a programme to look at precisely that method. We are particularly interested in using targeted wastewater analysis at schools and in social care in order to promptly identify the presence of the disease. We are looking in particular at technologies that have already been trialled in Italy. The trials are extremely promising, but I would be happy to make that connection between South West Water and the relevant team so that their knowledge is usefully used.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, what study has been undertaken into the efficiency and accuracy of these tests; by which I mean how many false positives and false negatives there are? Furthermore, what is the long-term strategy regarding this? If, every time restrictions are relaxed, tests show that infections rise, are we then just to continue imposing lockdowns ad infinitum?
Lord Bethell (Con)
My Lords, we have a very intense and rigorous validation programme around the various tests. They look at sensitivity and false positives. We do not believe that the current machines we use have a high risk in that department, but we always keep a close look at it. I am extremely grateful to those businesses that have developed new and innovative tests that we are rolling out all the time.
Health Protection (Coronavirus, Local COVID-19 Alert Level) (Very High) (England) Regulations 2020
Lord Robathan Excerpts(4 years, 1 month ago)
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Lord Robathan
At end to insert “but that this House regrets the failure of Her Majesty’s Government to provide the scientific evidence used to inform these Regulations and other restrictions put in place to address the COVID-19 pandemic, including the imposition of a 10.00pm curfew on businesses.”
Lord Robathan (Con)
Some noble Lords may have noticed that I have my reservations about the government policy regarding this pandemic. Of course, there are many different views. Yesterday, we had the somewhat surprising and unlikely juxtaposition of both the leader of the Labour Party and the Conservative leader of Essex County Council calling for tougher restrictions. They may be right.
I have great sympathy for the Government because they are in a very difficult position. They have the hugely difficult task of balancing public health needs against the needs of society and the economy in their policy. They may be right, as we wait with bated breath for the vaccine cavalry to come over the hill. Apparently, though—according to Kate Bingham, the chairman of the Vaccine Taskforce, today—the likelihood is that the vaccine will be only 50% effective.
There are different and opposing views on how to deal with this public health crisis. Of course, I may be wrong. It may not surprise your Lordships to know that I have occasionally—perhaps on many occasions—been wrong in the past. However, this amendment is not concerned with my views or the opposite views.
First, let me ask: what is the purpose of Parliament and this House? Are they just talking shops? The tribunes of the people in the other place should hold the Government to account but we, too, have a role to play, primarily as a revising Chamber. Frankly, we often do rather a good job of that. Also, as I recall from my days at school studying for the British constitution alternative O-level, we act as a check on an unaccountable or overly powerful Government—especially one with a big majority in the Commons—and the arbitrary abuse of power. We should not overstate that role but we can point out the wrongs of untested government decisions.
My amendment concerns the 10 pm curfew in particular. Surely Members of the House of Lords and the House of Commons can legitimately ask about it, because the curfew will do grave damage to an already fragile hospitality industry. Restaurants will struggle without two sittings per evening. Pubs are seeing a slump in sales while, incidentally, supermarkets are seeing an increase in the sale of alcohol to be consumed at home after 10 pm. Crowds are being ejected on to the streets at 10 pm, which rather ruins the idea of preventing large gatherings. There will be a reckoning in terms of closed pubs, bankrupt restaurants and, of course, unemployed staff.
So why 10 pm? Why not 11 pm or 9 pm? There is a sense that the figure was possibly plucked out of the air. What is the reasoning behind it? I doubt that any of your Lordships would disagree that the Government should tell us—more especially, the Commons and, indeed, the British people—the answer, yet I have seen no evidence or real response. There are a lot of assertions but little concrete evidence or informed debate. I want to see the opinions of economists, scientists and others, not just of those urging circuit-breakers and the like. I want to hear a balanced discussion on the merits of the case, including the social, economic and behavioural advice. I want to hear a discussion about whether the current policy, which I understand SAGE urged, is working because, as my noble friend just said, infections are increasing yet we have, and have had for some time, lots of local lockdowns.
By nature, I am a rather boring loyalist. I have a fond, perhaps naive, belief that a Conservative Government usually make the right decisions, and I support them even when I have reservations. Can the Minister tell the House what evidence and reasoning the Government have, and can he please share it with us? If the House receives a satisfactory explanation, I will see no reason to press my amendment to a Division.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, I thank particularly the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, and my noble friend Lady Altmann for their support. They will not be surprised to know that I agreed with every word they said. I regret to tell the Minister that I have not heard a satisfactory explanation of the 10 pm curfew, and I understand—I heard this only in the last 10 minutes—that the SAGE minutes from 21 September specifically say that a 10 pm curfew would have a “marginal” effect on transmission. However, we can say that it is a delight to be discussing this on Wednesday, when these regulations were announced, I think, only on Monday.
I want to see courageous political leadership in these difficult times, and I do not want to make the Government’s very difficult task any worse. So I am sorry to disappoint those who have offered to support me in a Division. I should state, for the avoidance of doubt, that I have not been put under any pressure, and I would hate to be thought pusillanimous or, indeed, wet in these things. It is not in my nature. But I will not, on this occasion, seek to test the opinion of the House, and I beg leave to withdraw my amendment.
Covid-19: Great Barrington Declaration
Lord Robathan Excerpts(4 years, 1 month ago)
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Lord Robathan
To ask Her Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the Great Barrington Declaration on the (1) physical, and (2) mental, health impacts of COVID-19 policies.
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of Health and Social Care (Lord Bethell) (Con)
My Lords, the analysis of the Department of Health and Social Care, the Office for National Statistics and the Government Actuary is clear. Mitigations have prevented more than 500,000 deaths and the associated heartache. As the Prime Minister made clear yesterday, it is right to look at alternatives, and I am grateful to the noble Lord for his Question. However, having looked at the Great Barrington declaration, we have decided that the idea of a great prevention is bad science and bad economics, and it is impractical. It would be an indefensible moral decision for any Government to take.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, the scientists from Oxford, Stanford and Harvard who are behind this declaration should surely be listened to as much as, for instance, the discredited Professor Ferguson or indeed SAGE. We know that NHS waiting lists are at an all-time high and that 3 million cancer screenings have been missed. We know that the average age of those dying from Covid is 82.4 years—higher than from other causes—and that a total of 313 people under the age of 60 and without comorbidities have died in English hospitals from Covid. Current policies are not working. Will the Government stop digging, get out of their hole and go back to first principles to determine the objective of their Covid policy, and then change tack to achieve that objective?
The Lord Speaker (Lord Fowler)
My Lords, I remind noble Lords to keep supplementary questions brief.
Health Protection (Coronavirus, Collection of Contact Details etc and Related Requirements) Regulations 2020
Lord Robathan Excerpts(4 years, 1 month ago)
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Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, it is a pleasure to follow the noble Baroness, Lady Jones, with whom I find myself almost exclusively in agreement—that is sometimes a little worrying, and she may be worried as well. She has pointed out how confusing this package of regulations is, and not just these ones. I have been looking at them and I am pretty confused. They are profoundly antipathetic to traditional British civil liberties. They are also unworkable, as shown by the problems we have discovered with the test and trace system. Yesterday evening, I went to a restaurant with my wife. We were the only people there. The proprietor was beside himself. Before these and other regulations were laid last month, his business was picking up, but this package of regulations is destroying the hospitality industry. That is a huge cost to the economy and there will be escalating unemployment, so I have to say that I find this extraordinary.
Yesterday, I received a reply to a Parliamentary Question that I put down some time ago. In fact, it was given by Professor Sir Ian Diamond, of the UK Statistics Authority. The figures show that 14.4% of those aged under 65 without known comorbidities die from this virus, which makes for something in the region of 800 deaths since February. Some 450 people die from cancer every day. Every death is tragic, but the impact of these regulations is that in fact more people are dying from cancer than might be necessary because of the impact on the NHS.
The totality of these restrictions is causing untold harm and unnecessary deaths:
“Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.”
That quote is from the Great Barrington Declaration, which noble Lords will find in the media at the moment. It is a petition started by leading epidemiologists and public health scientists. I urge the Government to show courageous leadership and ignore the hysterical media and focus groups and change tack, rather than double down on their policies. Allow the vulnerable to shield themselves and to take sensible precautions, and allow society to get on with life. The impact on our children’s future and the economy is already devastating, with no end in sight for the catastrophic social and economic damage being caused.