Perhaps the Minister might like to reflect on this conversation and see whether any of his colleagues could add some colour to that answer. There are quite a lot of deals relating to no-deal situations—I believe the EU calls them bonus deals—and I would be grateful, if there is further information, if he could write to us both.
This will be the last time I jump to my feet. If the Minister is coming back to the very sensible suggestion by the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, might he expand a little on our discussions with the Irish Government? The European Union is land-bordered with the United Kingdom, and if this is applying only to those who are importing goods from the European Union, which would cover the Northern Ireland border, but there is no reciprocal mechanism for those exporting, then this would apply to the Irish Government, who are the European Union. What discussions have there been and where would we, in Parliament, be able to understand the position of the Irish Government where this 12-month period could be completely intolerable? Of course, it can be solved by not leaving without a deal, but if we do leave without a deal—which is prohibited by law, but if the Government are determined to get around it—what is the position of the Irish Government and how do we know?
(5 years, 8 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, when the Trade Bill first came to this Chamber in September, out of interest I registered with HMRC as a small business trading with the European Union to find out what information the Government would be providing to businesses. One of the core elements was the EORI component. A business that trades either exclusively or predominantly, or indeed at all, with the European Union was told that it would be required to have an EORI number in the event of no deal. The Government have taken that position consistently over a number of months in indicating that preparations for a no-deal Brexit need to be made.
It has been fascinating to observe both the information that the Government have received and how businesses have responded. As I indicated to the Minister, the last time the Government published information about how many businesses were prepared and in a position to trade with their European counterparts the day after a no-deal Brexit, only one-sixth of British businesses were in a position to do so. That meant that five-sixths would not be able to trade legally with their counterparts in the EU 27 countries. Now, a fortnight before the revised exit day if we leave on a no-deal basis, only one-fifth of businesses can do so. Therefore, if we leave with no deal on 12 April, one-fifth of all British businesses that trade with customers in EU 27 countries are in a position to do so legally. In addition, if, as the Minister said, they are in the category of the 145,000 VAT-registered businesses, they are required to be registered with an EU 27-equivalent of HMRC in those countries.
The Government have not published data on that information. It would be very interesting to know whether they are collecting data themselves. Not only do businesses have to be registered with our regulatory body, the HMRC, but for those 145,000 businesses to pay the correct level of VAT, tariffs and customs duties, they have to be registered with the customs or VAT body of the member state concerned. This is the advice that the Government have been giving, so it would be interesting to know how many companies are in that position.
Even if we crash out on a delayed basis in a fortnight’s time, the vast majority of British businesses will not be in a position to trade legally with their European counterparts. Regardless of what the Government have been saying about the need for preparedness for a no-deal Brexit, British businesses are simply not prepared. That may be because they do not believe the Government would be so cavalier with the interests of the British economy or that, in the words of the business Minister who resigned overnight, the Government are,
“playing roulette with the lives and livelihoods of the vast majority of people in this country who are employed by or otherwise depend on businesses for their livelihood”.
Or perhaps they do not believe that the advice provided by the Government has been of a sufficient standard.
I am open-minded about which category they might be in but sympathetic to the latter because, last week, on the day the Government indicated they were open to extending Brexit day, I received an email, as a business, indicating that exit day would still be 29 March. This afternoon, as I listened to the Leader of the House speaking about the statutory instrument for extending Brexit day, I received an HMRC email indicating that the policy of the British Government was still to leave the European Union with a deal; but there was no indication of an exit day at all.
How on earth can British businesses be expected to prepare now with the Government not even indicating a firm basis on which they need to prepare? Given that having an EORI number is only one of a number of requirements on British businesses, the Government—not Parliament—are asking them to make impossible business decisions. They are asking them to take risks to plan for an eventuality that even the Government are not confident will happen. It would be helpful if the Minister, in responding to this short debate, gave an estimate of when the Government expect all British businesses to be in a position of readiness for exiting the European Union. If at the moment, a fortnight out, only a fifth of British businesses that trade with their counterparts in the European Union are prepared, when do the Government estimate that all British businesses will be in that position?
I too thank the Minister for presenting these SIs. Taking them in the same order as on the Order Paper, the first one concerns customs safety and security procedures. The impact assessment says:
“The main purpose of this regulation is to enable the UK to continue to meet its safety and security obligations under the World Customs Organisation … Framework of Standards by introducing a new UK regime”.
This is the new UK regime. It introduces a safety and security declaration—in a sense, at the UK-EU border—after a six-month transition period. It also introduces an authorised economic operator programme. I could not understand whether this was an asymmetrical situation or a symmetrical one. For the six months while the UK firms do not have to make these declarations, is it possible that EU member states may require declarations from what was to have been this Friday and is now a fortnight on Friday, or do we have a reciprocal deal? The impact assessment gives a feel for the real world. It says:
“In the event of a no deal scenario, the UK will no longer be part of the EU security zone and carriers and operators will need to make safety and security declarations for goods moving between the UK and the EU. Whilst many carriers, specifically large economic operators, are experienced in transporting goods to both the EU and non-EU countries, HMRC anticipates that this will present a significant ongoing administrative burden for them, especially when submitting an ENS as it will be a new legal obligation and an additional cost to submitting a customs declaration for import purposes”.
The intention of this programme is no doubt to smooth the effects of a no-deal scenario but at best it will only reduce the chaos, and chaos there will be—at least, that is what it seems to me. However, let us look at the reason why these instruments are in front of us. Paragraph 3.1 of the Explanatory Memorandum says the reason is that the European Statutory Instruments Committee and the Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee both recommended that the instruments should be moved from the negative procedure,
“to the affirmative resolution procedure, as they believe the House may wish to debate the implications the safety and security requirements may have for trade across the Ireland/Northern Ireland border”.
The reference to this in the Explanatory Memorandum is:
“The amendments to the retained EU law contained in this instrument will not have effect in relation to trade in goods between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Further details on the arrangements for trade between Northern Ireland and Ireland will be published as soon as possible”.
I looked at the instrument to see how that retained law was disapplied. Almost hiding in plain sight in regulation 1(3) is this simple statement:
“They do not have effect in relation to the movement of goods between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland or the reverse”.
That has a charming, heroic simplicity about it. In one line it says that a problem that completely destroyed the Prime Minister’s agreement—that is, the backstop—can be ended by that simple statement. What are the plans for the border under these circumstances? The regulation says they will be published “as soon as possible”. One would have assumed that there was a target to publish them before this Friday because it is the 29th, although we now know that exit day is possibly a fortnight later.
The question posed is the question that the best minds of Her Majesty’s Government and the EU have failed to solve: what will actually happen at that border? My understanding is that if we fall back on WTO rules, there is an obligation to impose tariffs and for these sorts of safety and security rules to be enforced. We will in fact end up with a border down the Irish Sea. Are the two parties in Northern Ireland simply going to ignore all their obligations under these various international treaties? If we have here tonight, at this late hour, a solution to the Irish border question, I would be delighted to hear it from the Minister.