Lord Pearson of Rannoch
Main Page: Lord Pearson of Rannoch (Non-affiliated - Life peer)My noble friend is obviously right. I would not swap economics with him. I accept that there are difficulties if your exchange rate is constrained by the euro and your interest rate policy is determined by the euro authorities. Ultimately, that is why it would be traumatic, as my right honourable friend said, if they leave—and it will be traumatic for individual Greeks, for whom we should feel a great deal of sympathy.
As far as the IMF is concerned, it is true that if Greece does not pay back its loan, it will go into arrears. There are contingency funds within the IMF which may cope with that. Ultimately, however, if that was the case, we would have about a 15% share of that. I agree with my noble friend that if we get to the stage of Greece leaving the euro, we should do all we can to help. I note that on Twitter today, President Juncker has said that, in his view, if Greece leaves the eurozone it will mean that it will be leaving the European Union.
My Lords, does the noble Lord agree that it is strange that the Greek people, and indeed the Portuguese and the Spanish, blame their problems on austerity, without seeming to realise that that is caused entirely by the ill-fated project of European integration and its euro, which they think they want to keep? Do the Government agree that, as other noble Lords have suggested, the Greek people’s best way out of the cruel euro trap is to leave it, devalue and gradually rebuild their economy? Would it not be nice if the Greeks were to succeed in this task and were eventually followed by the Portuguese, the Spanish and perhaps even the French? That might start to break up the whole euro project and, indeed, the project of European integration itself, which is doing so much damage to Europe.
The noble Lord may be surprised to know that the Government do not agree with that analysis. I know that he has certain views. Austerity per se is not the cause only of the Greeks’ predicament. It has been a long time coming, and other European countries have dealt with it in a possibly more effective way. Austerity alone is not the answer, but nor is leaving the euro. We need to help the Greeks negotiate a position where they can face the future with a bit more optimism, and I am sure that the noble Lord will join me in that.