Social Security (Contributions) (Limits and Thresholds, National Insurance Funds Payments and Extension of Veterans Relief) Regulations 2024

Lord Livermore Excerpts

Tuesday 27th February 2024 Grand Committee

I now turn very briefly to the second SI, the Tax Credits, Child Benefit and Guardian’s Allowance Up-rating Regulations 2024. The Government propose to increase these allowances by the amount of last September’s CPI: 6.7%. We entirely support this welcome upgrade and support the instrument. It is a pity, though, that this upgrade has not been and will not be applied to all the usual tax thresholds.

[Lord Livermore (Lab)]

My Lords, in the 2022 Autumn Statement, the Chancellor announced that national insurance contribution thresholds that are in line with income tax will be fixed at their 2023-24 levels until 2027-28. As the Office for Budget Responsibility pointed out at the time, the freeze to national insurance thresholds and limits meant that

“all the main personal tax thresholds are now frozen in cash terms across our entire forecast period”

through to 2027-28.

Those freezes to allowances, limits and thresholds provide the context for the debates that we now frequently have about the rising tax burden. As Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies said, the changes made at the 2023 Autumn Statement

“won’t be enough to prevent this from being the biggest tax-raising parliament in modern times”.

The fact is that, after 25 tax rises in this Parliament alone, the tax burden remains on course to reach its highest-ever level at least since the Second World War. One of the central reasons for that is the freeze on income tax and national insurance thresholds through to 2027-28. This fiscal drag means that, on average, personal taxes will go up by £1,200 per household even after the 2% cut to national insurance.

To take one example, the impact of the Government’s freezes to thresholds on low and middle earners is stark. As the noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, mentioned, consumer finance expert Martin Lewis recently said that, even with the reduction in national insurance, people on incomes of between £12,500 and £26,000 will be worse off, looking at this year in isolation, as a result of threshold freezes and fiscal drag. Does the Minister agree with Mr Lewis on that point?

The Tax Credits, Child Benefit and Guardian’s Allowance Up-rating Regulations set the annual rates of working tax credit and child tax credit and the weekly rates of child benefit and guardian’s allowance for the coming financial year. Amid a damaging cost of living crisis, we support the increases, as any help for people who are struggling in the face of persistently high energy, food and housing costs is particularly needed. It is welcome that these social security payments are being uprated by the usual amount, September’s inflation figure. Months of uncertainty about the Government’s plans caused enormous anxiety at a time when household budgets were stretched to breaking point.

My noble friend Lady Lister spoke expertly about child poverty, as she always does. We know that 8 million households received their final means-tested cost of living payment this month. That support has been critical for millions across this country, including many children. I would therefore be grateful if the Minister could say what assessment the Government have made of the impact that the end of the cost-of-living payment will have on levels of child poverty.

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)]

I am grateful to all noble Lords who have taken part in this short debate today. I will try to get through as many questions as possible—there are definitely one or two to which I do not currently have the answer, but I will do my best.

Turning to the points raised by the noble Baroness, Lady Lister, I recognise that she has been working in the field of child poverty, child benefit and child benefits more broadly for a long time and brings with her an awful lot of expertise. She focused very much on child benefit. I would say that child benefit is just one of many interventions that the Government can and do make to help families. There is a range of different supports, and she will have seen that at spring Budget 2023, the Chancellor announced that the Government will extend the free hours offer so that eligible working parents in England will be able to access 30 hours of free childcare per week for 38 weeks per year from when their child is nine months old to when they start school.

So it is not only about cash payments which come in the form of child benefit; and it is also the case that, looking at where we are now compared with where we were back in 2010, for example, we have made progress on poverty. The Government feel that the best way to get people—and children in particular—out of poverty is by living in homes where people are able to work. We know that there are now just under 1 million vacancies, and our approach is very much to try to get people into work, particularly full-time work, to reduce the risk of poverty. That is why our intervention in childcare is so important. We know that in 2021-22, children living in workless households were five times more likely to be in absolute poverty after housing costs than those where all adults worked. The latest available data shows that in 2021-22, there was only a 5% chance of children being in absolute poverty after housing costs where both parents worked full time, compared with 52% where one or more parents in the couple was in part-time work only. That is why our focus on all sorts of different interventions to support the family is really important.

The latest statistics show that, in 2021-22, there were 1.7 million fewer people in absolute poverty after housing costs compared with 2009-10, including 400,000 fewer children. We are heading in the right direction but, of course, we must continue to do further work in this area. I welcome the work that the Government have done on universal credit: it is a very good set of reforms that endeavours to support people when they need it most to help them back to work.

The noble Baroness, Lady Lister, mentioned the high-income child benefit charge. I am pleased that she agrees about the principle of individual taxation—I know that many people would like to put it on household income, but that would mean a change of thinking at the Treasury about how one taxes individuals. The adjusted net income threshold of £50,000 ensures that the Government support the vast majority of child benefit claimants. I will write to the noble Baroness if I have information about how many lower-rate taxpayers have been pulled into that area—but we are talking about a threshold of £50,000, which is a fair amount of money.

The noble Lord, Lord Sharkey, asked a number of questions, some of which I caught but some of which my brain did not quite catch. I will write to him, but, on the Treasury grant, as I said in my opening remarks, the Government are just being prudent by including it in the statutory instrument. At this moment, the Government Actuary report forecasts that the balance of the NIF will be £80.9 billion at the end of 2024-25, which is a significant surplus.

The GAD also projects that the NIF will be in overall surplus until at least 2028, but the balance can fluctuate because it will depend on economic factors and policy changes—for example, what might happen with increases to the state pension. The Government have increased the state pension by 8.5%, in line with inflation and the highest element of the triple lock. So I will write to the noble Lord on the threshold at which the Treasury would intervene—but we are not expecting to at this moment in time. We monitor the balance of the NIF very closely and we stand ready to include a top-up grant, should we feel that the forecast for that particular year gives the impression that it might be needed.

The noble Lord talked about veterans. The Government obviously keep all taxes and reliefs under review. We have decided to extend this for another year, and the cost of that extension is approximately £5 million for the next year. But it is also fair to say that the Government regularly conduct research and evaluation as part of their role in keeping policies such as this relief under review. When an evaluation is complete, it will be published in due course and decisions can then be taken at that point.

The noble Lord, Lord Livermore, mentioned the current economic climate, without mentioning the unprecedented economic shocks that the UK economy has had to weather. Of course, the response to this was often deemed to be insufficient by the party opposite, so I am not entirely sure where we would be had it been in power. I suspect that we might be in an even more sorry economic state, because we are now turning a corner. We are absolutely seeing really positive change in our economy, and I believe that will continue.

It is worth looking at the broader impact of the freezing of the NICs threshold, alongside income tax. Quite frankly, when many people get their payslips, they just look at how much money they gave the Government. They do not necessarily focus on whether it is NICs or tax; it is just money they do not have and cannot spend because the Government are spending it for them.

But, since 2010, the Government have improved the lot of lower-earning people. We have nearly doubled the personal allowance since 2010, and it is 30% higher in real terms. That ensures that some of the lowest earners do not pay income tax. Indeed, around 30% of people do not pay income tax at all. This has also meant that it is estimated that over 3 million people will be taken out of tax by 2023-24, compared with the threshold rising in line with inflation from 2010-11. So the Government have increased the thresholds by more than inflation over a very long period of time, which has really benefited the lowest earners.

Given these unprecedented economic shocks, the Government have had to take difficult decisions, which I believe are bearing fruit. I hope that other noble Lords can recognise that. It remains the case that a UK employee can earn more money before paying income tax and social security contributions than an employee in any other G7 country. Let us not fall into the trap of thinking that we are massively overtaxed in this country.

As I say, we see the economy turning a corner and inflation falling. We hope that we can return some money to taxpayers, because I agree that it is not a comfortable feeling knowing that, in the past, we have had to raise taxes to help the nation get through the unprecedented economic shocks that we have weathered. However, now that we are in slightly sunnier uplands, I hope we will be able to do more in future. I will write with further responses to questions which I have not covered but, for the meantime, I commend this instrument to the Committee.