Electoral Registration and Administration Bill

Lord Lipsey Excerpts

Wednesday 23rd January 2013 Lords Chamber

Moved by

[Lord Lipsey]

12: After Clause 18, line 10, at end insert—
“(3) Section 66A of the Representation of the People Act 1983 (prohibition on publication of exit polls) is amended as follows.
(4) In subsection (1), after “before” insert “a time 30 minutes after”.”

[Lord Lipsey]

I owe the House an explanation, whichever way things go tonight, for moving an amendment which I believe to be otiose. Perhaps I may briefly explain. The matter at stake is whether there would be a problem in accepting the amendment in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Pannick, because voters queuing at a polling station would be able to hear the result of an exit poll and could change their vote. An exit poll cannot be published before 10 pm but it could be published at 10 pm and the result could become known to those people queuing at polling stations.

That may seem a bizarre hypothesis but it was advanced at some length on 14 January by the noble Lord, Lord Taylor, when he replied for the Government to an amendment in the name of the noble Lord, Lord Pannick. He must have meant it because he said it with some conviction, although it would be fair to say that the noble Lord, Lord Taylor, had not previously had responsibility for the Bill. At the time, the Government had the problem that the Minister who knew about the Bill did not believe in it as it then was. Therefore, they had to find someone to take his place. But let us leave that aside because the noble Lord said it and, therefore, it must have been the policy.

How sensible is this argument? There is no evidence—I repeat, no evidence—that an exit poll has ever affected the vote of any voter. John Curtice, the leading psephologist at the University of Strathclyde, who kindly researched this for me, said:

“I have not uncovered any pieces on exit polls having an impact on voter choice”.

It does not happen.

It is true that exit polls can in certain circumstances affect elections. The effect is on turnout. There is no British evidence on this. There is American evidence, although it dates from the 1980s, referring to a Reagan election. In the event, people on the east coast voted. The exit polls were reported and voters in California who were going to vote for Reagan did not bother to vote because they had heard that on the east coast he was winning easily and so why bother. The turnout could have been affected by between 1% and 5%. If you try to apply this to the hypothesis in the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Pannick, you have the situation of a person who comes rushing back from work thinking that he can just get his vote in. He rushes to the polling station and finds to his consternation that there is a queue. However, thanks to the noble Lord, Lord Pannick, he can have a ballot paper anyway. Provided that he is in the polling station by 10 pm, he gets a ballot paper. Then he switches on his telephone and learns that the exit poll is showing that the Tories are going to win. The man then says to himself, “I have rushed back home, rushed to the polling station and been prepared to stand around while they finally produce a ballot paper for me but, having heard what the exit poll is showing, I am going back home without voting”. It really is a most absurd hypothesis. Even if in some extraordinary case it was true, what is the chance of it affecting the election result?

The amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Pannick, might result in a few hundred extra voters picking up ballot papers, even if we mess up things again as badly as we did last time. They will not be all of one party, of course. Let us suppose that a few of these voters did walk out and went home, most of the seats in places where this occurred would have been safe or quite safe. The chances of those voters not being there and not casting their vote making any difference to the result are practically zero.

When I was in Whitehall, we used to play a game late at night as to who could get a Minister to make the most ludicrous argument in either House of Parliament. It was a fantasy game, of course. This measure would have been a strong qualifier to win the gold medal in that game. However, just in case anybody believes this argument, I have provided a belt-and-braces amendment so that the exit polls cannot be published until 10.30 pm and, as a result, all those watching the 10 o’clock news will not know the result of an election. At least, thank goodness, the danger of the Pannick amendment affecting in any way the result in a single seat will be averted. Is that a price worth paying? Your Lordships will decide.

[Lord Lang of Monkton]

My Lords, as a member of the Constitution Committee and a signatory to the amendment moved by the noble Lord, Lord Pannick, I rise to support not only what he has said but what I hope the Minister is about to say. Indeed, I have cast my notes aside because their tone was such that, had I proceeded, he might have withdrawn what he was about to say.

I am delighted to hear that common sense seems to have prevailed because a vote is a fundamental right in a parliamentary democracy. That is something of which we should never lose sight. Heaven knows, not enough of the electorate cast the votes that they are entitled to cast. For guidance we need look no further than the procedures in this House where, because of rising population, the increasingly awkward structure and access to where we vote and the time limit that we are up against, the doorkeepers have very sensibly developed their own process whereby, after eight minutes, they move in behind those who are present and waiting to go through the Lobbies, and nobody else can vote. If that can happen here in this rowdy House, I suspect that it can happen in the polling stations up and down the land if proper, sensible legislation is enacted. I will say no more and, in the interests of the cause, I will now resume my seat, supporting what I hope I am going to hear.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Wallace of Saltaire]

My Lords, as the noble Lord, Lord Taylor, had noted in previous debates on this issue, the sentiment behind the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Pannick, on behalf of the Constitution Committee, with the support of the noble Baroness, Lady Jay, and my noble friends Lord Lexden and Lord Lang, is fully appreciated.

Having heard the view of the House and seen the cross-party support for this change, the Government are content to accept the principle of the amendment. Our resistance to it in its current form has been based on a concern about unexpected and unforeseen consequences flowing from the change, and we still have that concern. We have identified some of those consequences in debate and, in looking at them more closely since, have concluded that they need to be addressed.

The amendment as it stands brings ambiguity and uncertainty to the impact of other legislative provisions upon the broadcasting of exit polls and other matters pertaining to secrecy within electoral law that are subject to criminal penalties of fines or up to six months in prison. There are other impacts on legislation that refers to the close of poll.

The noble Lord, Lord Lipsey, has brought forward a further amendment to seek to address the issue of exit polls. Unfortunately, while deferring their publication until 30 minutes after close of play might deal with some potential instances of delay, it would not catch all such instances—for example, if there were a very considerable queue. In that sense, it would defer the problem to a later time.

It is also necessary to make some drafting changes to the amendment to ensure that it applies consistently. The amendment, as a consequence of the intricacies of the current law, does not apply to Northern Ireland. It would be most regrettable if we were to accept it and have a position where voters in a queue at 10 pm could receive ballot papers and vote after that time in Great Britain but not in Northern Ireland.

On that basis, and recognising the will of the House and the laudable principle behind the proposed change, the Government propose to bring forward at Third Reading an amendment that makes the change being sought in terms of electors voting at close of poll but which also contains a provision, through a proportionately limited power, to make further amendments on commencement to deal with all the potential consequences that it has on other elements of electoral legislation.

On the basis of the Government’s commitment to bring forward a clause at Third Reading that achieves the aim of the amendment in the names of the noble Lord, Lord Pannick, and the noble Baroness, Lady Jay, on behalf of the Constitution Committee and which deals with these further issues, I trust that the noble Lords will feel able to withdraw their amendments.

[Lord Lipsey]

I beg leave to withdraw my Amendment 12.

Amendment 12 (to Amendment 11) withdrawn.