Welfare Benefits Up-rating Bill

Lord King of Bridgwater Excerpts

Tuesday 19th March 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Forsyth of Drumlean]

The noble Lord seems to think that the reason why the economy is not growing is that the state is not large enough. How big does he want to the state to be? It is already taking nearly 50% of everything created by the Government and spending it, and that is not enough because they have to borrow on top of that.

If levels of taxation are high, which they are, and levels of regulation are high, we will not get the growth that is required. We need to constrain public expenditure to make room for the private sector to create wealth. Once we have a bigger cake, everyone can have a bigger slice, but if we try to proceed in this way we will end up with a smaller cake and those dependent on welfare benefits will be cruelly cheated. They will find their living standards destroyed by inflation, higher costs and the inability of the Government to finance the kind of programmes that Members opposite are prepared to say now that they would support, although they are not prepared to say so at a general election.

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

My Lords, I agree with a particular point that my noble friend has made and would like to add that the Bill has come forward on an especially interesting day. I refer to Cyprus. The warning is on the packet. There has been a certain amount of calm around, as though we had come through all our problems and were moving steadily forward into calm waters, and as though the eurozone was secure. The financial markets, with the euro increasing in value, may have had that illusion. However, it has all been blown away. I have not heard any recent news; I do not know whether there has been a decision yet about what Cyprus will do. We should remember that, at the moment, there is a very real risk. Clearly, people have been caught in Cyprus. If Portugal, Spain and Italy decide that this will be the European practice, people there may find that their savings and funds in their banks are not as secure as they had been assured they were. After all, everyone thought that there was a clear undertaking that below a certain level, around €100,000, their own bank accounts were at no risk. If that changes, we face a very serious situation.

There is complacency around, as I picked up from an article today by the chief economist of HSBC, as though with just a bit of going forward and a bit more luck we will be back on the old growth train and in the business that we were in before. What has been exposed is that over many years we have been living on borrowed money, on a construction boom in the financial services area and on public expenditure. Now that those have to be constrained, suddenly people are turning around and saying, “How, as a country, are we going to earn our living in future?”. We are finding that we have slipped in the leagues. In one of our most successful areas of overseas earnings, defence expenditure, we have now slipped a place and China has overtaken us. China is now taking away a number of the markets that our manufacturers used to serve extremely well. It is said that we hope to sell Typhoon to Oman, the UAE and one or two other countries, but the point has been made that its successor will be made in America, and that will be the end of one of our most successful overseas earnings. When you see where we earn our living in the world, we are not in a happy place.

That is why I very much agree with my noble friend Lord Forsyth. All of us in this House would like to say, “Let’s increase benefits. Let’s deal with all the hard cases and see how we can give people more money”. Look at the situation in Ireland, where benefits have been cut by, I think, 10%. There has been talk of cuts today but in fact we are taking about how big an increase the Government should impose, not an absolute cut in the amount. Other countries in Europe are cutting by 6%, 10% or 12% the actual amount that people are getting—what hardship that must represent.

This is not a pleasant speech to make. It is much more popular to say, “Let’s have some more benefit”. I say this against a background of a new situation that has suddenly come upon us: if this House—the unelected House of Lords—decides today to cut right through one of the decisions made as part of the prudent financial planning to find our way out of the problems that we are in, and if that triggers a loss of credibility in our national approach and the Government’s approach to tackling those serious problems, it will really be a problem for people on benefits if there is a run and we then find that the low interest rates that the Government have enjoyed for their substantial borrowing no longer apply.

I agree with my noble friend on this point. There is an illusion that somehow we are reducing our debt. We are not; we are reducing the rate at which the debt is increasing. One of the blessings that we have had is that at least we have been able to borrow at an extremely low rate because we had some credibility. If the House of Lords today kicks away one of the planks that help to shore up the credibility of a Government who have a plan to try to deal with our problems, and if those international interest rates are then demanded of the Government and the country when we try to borrow money, the problems that we will incur for all our people could be vastly greater. Look at the tragedies that exist now, such as the unemployment rates in Spain, which is 50% in certain age groups.

We have held things together so that we have a lower unemployment rate than the eurozone countries. There is so much that we have to hang on to. This is a dangerous time. I say seriously to your Lordships: do not tamper at this stage with this very difficult situation, at a time when we are least able to face it and when it could quite seriously endanger our whole economic structure. I do not think that people understand what a mess the world is in at present. There is a huge amount of complacency around. We are not by any means out of the woods yet, and it is our duty to ensure that we hold firm.

I intend to support my right honourable friend Iain Duncan Smith, whose commitment to this area I think we all admire enormously. He is doing the best that he can. He is agreeing to an increase in benefits for the most deserving people in this country, but not as large an increase as they might have hoped to see. That is the only realistic approach that can be taken at this time.

[The Lord Bishop of Leicester]

My Lords, I have lent my name in support of this amendment, and I am happy to speak in support of it.

This debate is about who should bear the greatest weight of the burden imposed by the Government’s need to reduce debt. I hope that the noble Lords, Lord King and Lord Forsyth, might consider accepting an invitation from me to come to the city of Leicester to explain to our local Child Poverty Commission why it is in the interests of children in poverty that they should become poorer at the moment because that will serve the national interest regarding debt, and that this House is working in their interests by reducing the uprating of their income to 1%, however much inflation rises. They might accept an invitation to explain that also to the unemployed and to voluntary associations in Leicester, which anticipate a tsunami of difficulties such as homelessness and dependence on food banks. They can come to listen to the response to this Bill from those who are dependent on benefits through no choice of their own, who can explain what that is like and how much harder it will get in the years ahead.

If the purpose of this Bill is to control welfare costs, this is not the right way to go about it. The key to reducing the benefit bill is to change the circumstances that lead many people to need benefits, such as the absence of job opportunities, too much short-term, low-paid work, the shortage of affordable housing, and expensive, patchy childcare. We should be focusing on those issues, not cutting benefits in real terms, which simply creates hardship without addressing the underlying issues.

This Bill is both unnecessary and ill conceived. It will harm the most vulnerable in our society and do nothing to promote work incentives. I have heard nothing at Second Reading, in Committee or today to make me change my view that this Bill ideologically shrinks the welfare state regardless of desperate need. Nor does it change my view that we are heading for a US-style welfare system that is dependent on food banks and hostels. We know that we can do better than this, we must do better than this, and we should amend the Bill.

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[Lord McKenzie of Luton]

Housing benefit is one such benefit. Council tax benefit has been dumped on local authorities with a 10% restriction on funding, which means that people’s support will be cut in cash terms. That is absolutely happening.

I say to the noble Lords, Lord King and Lord Forsyth, that it seemed that the mention of Cyprus was meant to lead us to a conclusion that bears no relation to reality. We are not dealing with a situation here that would take us anywhere close to the situation in Cyprus. We are talking about restrictions on uprating which, on the Government’s own figures, would amount to something like £1.9 billion.

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

The Government’s ability even to pay this level of benefit will partly depend on our ability to borrow enough money at low enough rates to continue the policy. Is the noble Lord not aware that there is a big shiver going through the eurozone about the financial situation? It has suddenly come back into the headlines. If it was thought at this moment that the Government were going to deviate from their previously planned approach—if it was voted down by your Lordships’ House—it would have a serious effect. Then the problems faced by some young people and people in poverty at the present time, as spoken to by the right reverend Prelate, could be seriously aggravated. Our job is to try to make the best we can of a very difficult situation.

[Lord McKenzie of Luton]

My Lords, of course we are aware of what is going on in Europe, and I shall come on to issues of borrowing in a moment. We are talking here about an amount that is less than 0.1% of total government expenditure. The noble Lord cannot seriously be arguing that taking our position rather than that of the Government would bring the whole edifice crashing down. That simply does not reflect reality.

The problem that the Government have is that because they have failed to deliver growth in the economy there is a real risk—this is what is happening—that their austerity programme is making debt worse. This was again a point made in a very powerful article last week in the FT.

We have heard a great deal about the Labour Government’s record. When the Labour Government left office the economy was growing again and it was the austerity measures which choked off that growth. As to the Labour Government’s record on debt, before the international crisis hit, our debt levels were the second lowest in the G7, lower than when we came into office in 1997, I believe.

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[Lord McKenzie of Luton]

My Lords, we have added our names to this amendment moved so comprehensively by the noble Lord, Lord Low. It requires that all the components of ESA—the personal allowance and the additional component for those in the work-related activity group, as well as those in the support group—are taken outside the 1% cap on uprating. As we have heard, the amendment rightly includes provision for children to be made under universal credit, although it remains to be seen how much progress the faltering universal credit will have made by the time the Bill is spent.

As we have argued on previous amendments, it is the vulnerable who are most affected by the Bill. This is particularly so for those on ESA for two specific reasons. They are much less able to increase their income through work and their living costs are generally higher. This is particularly so for those in the support group, who are furthest from the labour market, but also for those in the WRAG. It is worth remembering that there is a rigorous testing process for people who are unable to work due to ill health or disability. We know that the gateway to this benefit is tough. Although the process involving Atos has been improved, there are still many who end up on ESA only after a successful appeal.

Although individuals in the WRAG are closer to the labour market through their conditionality or otherwise, the route to paid work is not easy, as the noble Lord, Lord Low, said. We know that the Work Programme has not covered itself in glory in this regard. As things currently stand, individuals in the WRAG will lose something like £191 a year by 2015 as a result of this Bill. Those in the support group will fare little better in terms of income, being some £138 a year worse off by that date.

Macmillan has specifically drawn our attention to how these measures will affect people with cancer. Its estimate is that in excess of 40,000 cancer patients will be claiming ESA by 2015 with the presumption that they will be placed in the support group. Macmillan particularly stresses the impact of rising energy bills on this group. Like the noble Lord, Lord Low, I remind the Secretary of State that he should fulfil his commitment to make sure that people on ESA are being fully protected.

The noble Lord, Lord Brooke, challenged me to say where we think the money should come from. I thought I made it clear in the first debate that we think the Government should not proceed with the tax cut that is proposed for those earning £150,000 a year. The proposed tax cut from 50% to 45% would be a source of revenue. The Government say that this will not produce very much, but that assumes that people can get away with planning their income to defeat the thrust of that change. If the Government are alert to that, they could garner that revenue and we believe they should.

There is a wider argument about the extent of debt that can be sustained. The point I come back to is that the greater the failure of the Government in their economic policy—the greater the paucity or lack of growth in the economy—the more it will be necessary for the Government to borrow. If the Government can get growth back into the economy, that begins to ease the debt burden. There is another source there.

I also remind the noble Lord that these amendments take ESA out of the fixed uprating—the collar that this Bill puts around them—so a judgment would have to be made for each uprating period. Traditionally and rightly that has been an increase by the rate of inflation of one sort of another. That is what these amendments are doing. They are not technically, of themselves, proposing a different rate, although I made it clear that we support uprating by inflation for the year that we are about to enter.

It is clear from that combination of reasons that this proposal can and should be supported. It is not constrained by the economic position of the Government. It is the Government that have got themselves into a bind because they have failed to generate growth in the economy.

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

As the noble Lord understands some of the complexities of this matter which many others may find more difficult, what does he assess the cost of this amendment would be over the next few years?

[Lord McKenzie of Luton]

The total cost is certainly less than that proposed for the totality of the arrangements in the Bill. It would be a portion of that. The number of people in the support group is something like 200,000 and there are around 300,000 in the WRAG. If you assumed you were looking at a difference between uprating by inflation and uprating by 1%, that would be the calculation. I stress that this amendment is saying that you simply take ESA out of the 1% collar, and it leaves open the question of whether uprating next year and the year after should be by whatever inflation is then. However, this amendment does not put a figure on it.

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

The noble Lord is a signatory to this amendment. He is speaking for the Official Opposition and it obviously represents a cost. I wonder what that cost is. I do not see how the House can vote if it is not clear what extra costs are envisaged. If he is suggesting that there is no extra cost at all, I do not imagine the Government will find great difficulty with the amendment. Presumably there is a cost; I wonder if he knows the figure.

[Lord McKenzie of Luton]

It depends on what the alternative proposition would be. I have tried to stress that this amendment takes ESA outside this 1% fixed uprating—outside that collar—so we would have to judge the impact at each uprating period thereafter. A judgment would have to be made in the light of inflation and general economic circumstances at that point in time. That seems a very clear proposition, is it not? It is certainly a basis on which we are very happy to support this amendment.

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[Baroness Morgan of Drefelin]

My Lords, I am not an economist. I declare an interest as chief executive of a cancer research charity. My concerns are similar to those voiced by the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood. The Bill locks in the 1% and does not contain a very important review provision. I am sure that my amendment is so anodyne that the Minister will say either that it is unnecessary or that he will accept it.

For that reason, I will be brief. It is important once more to challenge the myth that disabled people will be protected from the measures in the Bill when that is so clearly not the case. Let us remember that, by 2015, in excess of 40,000 cancer patients will be claiming ESA. It is the main benefit claimed by cancer patients, as we have already heard. For those cancer patients in the support group, only a proportion, the support component, of what they receive, will be protected, while their core payment will rise by only 1%, as my noble friend Lord Low mentioned.

Overall, cancer patients in the support group will see their ESA payments rise by only 1.4%, rather than by inflation, and Macmillan Cancer Support has estimated that, by 2015, cancer patients will be £138 worse off each year than if they had received the 2.2% rise which could have been expected with the CPI level as was in September 2012. I cite the £138 figure, but I am conscious that we do not yet know the true effect of the Bill. That figure shows how far ESA will fall behind inflation if the consumer prices index were to remain at the September 2012 level of 2.2%. However, it has now risen to 2.7%. If, as we have heard, inflation were to rise to 3% over the next three years, the loss to cancer patients and others in the ESA support group would be even greater. The actual impact on cancer patients and others supported by those payments is just as uncertain as the level of inflation itself.

In its current form, the Bill leaves no flexibility to protect vulnerable groups such as cancer patients if there is a significant rise in inflation over the next three years. For that reason, I support the amendment moved by the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood. I fully expect the Minister to say that he will accept my amendment or that it is unnecessary because it is a matter of course that there will be a review by the Social Security Advisory Committee if we have such a rise in inflation. I very much look forward to hearing the Minister’s remarks about how the Government aim to continue to protect cancer patients as much as possible.

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

I should have asked my noble Lord friend Lord Kirkwood, this; he is an expert on uprating. The noble Baroness said that this is an anodyne amendment. I am not an expert on how uprating works, but does her amendment provide that if inflation is above 3%, the Bill does not apply and it will then be up to the Secretary of State to decide what increase he tries to get through both Houses of Parliament, which could in fact be 1%, if the economic situation is as it is? So it does not automatically provide that the current rate of inflation has to be included. Have I got that right?

[Baroness Morgan of Drefelin]

That is correct. As normal, the House would receive an annual uprating SI, there would be a debate in the normal way and, if the Government of the day wanted to propose a particular uprating, there would be the normal impact assessment. The noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, may want to clarify his amendment, but my amendment states that if we have a significant increase in inflation, we need the experts to conduct a review to say what will be the impact on benefit recipients.

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[Lord Kirkwood of Kirkhope]

I think it is me, in fact, but let that pass. I am grateful to my noble friend. He and I had a good private discussion about this. I understand the Government’s position and he understands my position as well. I plead not guilty to his charge of being clever. All I am trying to do here is to get an insurance policy to protect people who are on benefits who may well need it. I hope I am wrong. He knows more about inflation than I do, but there is a real risk that in the demeanour of the coalition Government’s policy, which I would support, to try to attract higher levels of growth, it may be a price worth paying—not to let inflation rip, as my noble friend said, but to allow it to rise reasonably in expectation that growth would follow as a result of that. The shift in the policy changes that.

When the Bill was drafted we were in a different position. We are now—we will see tomorrow whether that is correct or not—in a position of the proposals of the noble Lord, Lord Heseltine, for growth, much of which I support. I must say to the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, that I pay attention to what he says as Britain is a poorer place. These are huge sums of money and we need to work out collectively how we make provision for social protection in future. However, I say to my noble friend—I am looking him straight in the eye—that I cannot accept that this is a safe position to leave the House in. I want the protection—

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

Is not the key point here that the Government have to be able to convey credibility to those around the world who may lend us money? The noble Lord, Lord McKenzie, has made the point very well. We have to borrow a lot of money or there will be nothing like the present level of benefits if we find, as the Minister has made clear, that we are out on the market trying to borrow from countries and lenders who say, “I thought they had a clear plan. Now they’re qualifying it, they may not follow through”. I make this simple point. The noble Lord quite rightly talks about the risk of inflation rising. The risk that he is prepared to accept is that we lose our rating and then we will be in a very much worse state.

[Lord Kirkwood of Kirkhope]

I thought that we had lost our rating. I have now lost my drift.

This is very simple. This is a one-way bet for the Chancellor. If the Government end up with a windfall of £1 billion or £2 billion over and above the saving that I am supporting here, that is completely unconscionable. I am moving this amendment only to try to get an element of inflation protection for benefit claimants. I am grateful to everybody who has taken part in the debate, even the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth. I am sorry to do this to my noble friend, but I want to test the opinion of the House.