Climate Risk Models

Lord Kamall Excerpts

Thursday 25th January 2024 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)]

The noble Lord raises a very important issue. However, it is slightly beyond the remit of the Question.

[Lord Kamall (Con)]

My Lords, it is important to recognise what models do: they look at the real world in practice, try to explain it in theory, and then try to predict the future using past and, perhaps, future data. All models are flawed to a certain extent. Given the focus on other things apart from inflation, such as climate risk models, in my noble friend’s experience or opinion, does she think this distracts the Bank of England from one of its essential tasks, which is to focus on getting inflation below 2%?

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)]

The Bank of England has two major roles, as my noble friend will be aware: it is responsible for monetary policy but also for financial stability. Climate risk very much falls into the latter. However, he is absolutely right about models: there is probably not a single model in the world that is 100% accurate—they can never be. However, it is not about forecasts but about scenarios. It is about taking a range of possible outcomes and thinking about how firms would react to different scenarios. It is right that the Bank of England consider this; however, I know that it is very focused on getting inflation down.