Welfare Reform and Work Bill

Lord Horam Excerpts

Tuesday 12th January 2016 Lords Chamber

[Lord Horam (Con)]

I am very sympathetic to the views put forward by the noble Lord, Lord Kerslake, in moving his amendment. All noble Lords are aware of the acute difficulties in rented accommodation and housing to buy, particularly in London but also elsewhere. I am delighted by the dynamism which the Government are trying to inject into this area. This is, perhaps, not the occasion to look at the full dimension of housing policy because we are considering only one aspect of it in relation to the proposed amendments. None the less, there is a bigger picture which should be taken into account. The noble Lord, Lord Kerslake, made the point that the Bill contains a very abrupt reversal of the position under the coalition Government when there was a 10-year guarantee of the 1% a year increase in rents. Frankly, it was rather foolish for any Government to give a guarantee of that kind. By their nature, these things are very hard to sustain through different economic circumstances. I genuinely wish it could have been carried on, because it was helpful to have that length of forward planning time. In the past, I have been a critic of the failure of Governments—Conservative and Labour and the previous coalition one—to plan ahead on investment. As a devout Keynesian, this is something on which I have been critical of my own Chancellor of the Exchequer in the past. There needs to be one view about current spending and one about capital spending: the two are not necessarily the same thing at the same time.

I understand all that very well, but the reality is that all Governments, of any political complexion, have to take the bigger picture into account. That picture is that the Government are still spending substantially more than they are raising in taxation. At the moment, the figure is approximately £70 billion a year. Let us not forget that under the previous Labour Government this huge deficit was £150 billion at its maximum. This was brought down only by half during the coalition period and the Chancellor of the Exchequer now hopes to bring it down and eliminate it during the course of this Parliament. I am sceptical about whether he will achieve that. As all noble Lords are aware, the economic recovery in this country is rather fragile. At the moment it is in the order of 2% a year and although it would be very good if we manage to achieve that year after year, I am not sure that we will. The winds of economic force around the world are looking difficult. I have for long felt that China was heading for real problems and now it really has them. Its growth has come down to something like 6% from 9% or 10% the previous year. Other countries have massive deficit problems. China has a deficit of over £250 billion: 250% of its GDP as opposed to our 8% of GDP. Japan’s deficit is over 200%; Brazil’s is huge. There is almost a tsunami of debt around the world. This is extremely important in terms of our economic performance and no Government could ignore it. To ask this particular sector to make a contribution—of £12 billion as the noble Lord, Lord Best, pointed out—is responsible. To use a phrase much used by the former Chancellor, Gordon Brown, it is prudent in these circumstances. That is the reality which a Government have to face, so I am not surprised that they have reversed this particular housing policy and gone to a managed 1% over the next four years.

Not to beat about the bush, it is a difficult economic situation. I am not as pessimistic as the noble Lord, Lord Kerslake, and others, or the Office of Budget Responsibility, which talks about 43,000 fewer houses. Indeed, I am rather sceptical about these forecasts as well. I note that the housing association movement, which has entered into a voluntary agreement with the Government, is not itself as pessimistic as that. As the noble Lord, Lord Kerslake, mentioned, there are quite a lot of possibilities for greater efficiency within the movement. I have had talks with housing associations; I was once the chairman of a housing association; I know something about this area. There is certainly a greater possibility of them reacting by improving their efficiency, by mergers, by some of the larger associations taking over some of the smaller ones. All that is possible and it is necessary if we are to make progress.

The way out of the acute economic dilemma which this country and the world face is greater productivity. That is what it is lacking. You get greater productivity by pressing down on costs and achieving greater efficiency. That is what the Government are hoping that the housing association movement and individual housing associations will do. Given what I know about housing associations, and what they are saying to me, I am not pessimistic: they can achieve that. I do not think they believe that there will be the dramatic reduction in the number of houses they produce to rent or buy which the Office of Budget Responsibility has forecast, and they are right not to. We should not be so pessimistic about the effect on housing associations. I hope they can increase their contribution because we need that if we are to meet the ambitious targets which the Government are now setting. Realistically, we have to take all that into account.

I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Kerslake, on the question of exemptions. If you are taking a tough line, as the Government are, on the 1% reduction in rents year by year, you can afford to put in certain exemptions for disabled facilities and other kinds of supported accommodation. This will be discussed when we come to Amendment 109, but it is not enough to give guarantees of a certain kind. This comes back to the question of the certainty you should be able to create for housing associations to plan ahead. It is much better to have something in the Bill, in clear black and white, which they can plan on, rather than some possibility that the Government may waive the situation and decide that, in the eventuality, a certain scheme may pass their test and not be subject to the Bill. It is much better to have something concrete on which a housing association can possibly plan.

I am, therefore, sympathetic to the exemptions talked about by the noble Lord, Lord Kerslake, and other noble Lords. I hope the Government will listen to that argument carefully. If they do, they will show their real intention of being as fair-minded and sympathetic to these real problems as they possibly can. The general attempt to roll back the clear policy on handling private rents is a mistake in the wider context of the economic situation that we face. This area has to make a contribution to our economic success. It ought to be able to do this by increased efficiency and productivity and I very much hope that it will.

[Lord Scriven (LD)]

My Lords, I support a lot of what the noble Lord, Lord Kerslake, said. The noble Lord and I do not always have a history of supporting each other. He was the chief executive of Sheffield City Council when I was leader of the opposition there. We both know the sparring match well. Since the noble Lord has come into this House, I have listened to him on many issues and on housing in particular. He speaks both sense and practicality on the difficult situation which the Government have got into: seeing social housebuilding as a way of dealing with a welfare bill. The actual consequences of reducing the rent will be that while it may meet the objective of dealing with the welfare bill, it will not deal with the acute shortage of social housing across this country. That is probably the biggest social issue facing families and individuals in this country at the moment.

I jumped up after the noble Lord, Lord Horam, because I wanted to say that I am not sure whether he listened to what the noble Lord, Lord Kerslake, was saying about the bigger picture. Regarding his amendments, particularly Amendment 104D, the noble Lord, Lord Kerslake, was clear. He did not ask for the policy to be totally thrown out but referred to a specific issue: that when the deficit had gone and we were back in balance in 2020, the position that the Government have got themselves into about a reduction of 1% should stop. He said clearly that once the Government had got back into the black, it made no sense whatever to continue with the 1% reduction. So the amendment of the noble Lord, Lord Kerslake, took the wider position.

There is a clear question to the Minister. Is this policy being driven by dogma or by practicality? If it is being driven by practicality on the biggest social policy issue facing the country then, as the noble Lord, Lord Kerslake, said, there is no justification for keeping the 1% reduction after the deficit has been eliminated. There would be wisdom in knowing from the Minister why the 1% reduction would be needed once the deficit had gone, according to the Government’s own predictions. What logical reason would there need to be that would not contribute to dealing with the country’s biggest social problem, which is affordable housing?

The second issue which made me want to jump up straightaway was to do with pessimism and the predictions that the noble Lord, Lord Kerslake, and others have made regarding the effect on the number of social houses built. Again, the noble Lord, Lord Horam, said that he did not believe that such a difficult situation would be the case, and that he had more faith in housing associations dealing with it through efficiencies and other things. I have great faith in many in the public sector, and in housing associations, when dealing with efficiencies. They have been doing that for a period of time but the scale of these reductions will not be dealt with purely through efficiencies. At the end of last year, the chief executive of the Genesis Housing Association was already saying that it will stop building social housing. Chief executives of housing associations are already stating that, and that they will be able to build only houses at market rent. The predictions are not vague; housing associations are already stopping what part of their core purpose was, as their chief executives are making clear.

The third point that I wish to raise is also in support of the noble Lord, Lord Kerslake. I come back to Amendment 104E and the issue regarding the Government giving a clear commitment today that, after 1 April 2020, providers will be able to increase rents by CPI plus 1% each year. Can the Government give the commitment that housing associations will be able to do that? If they do not, again, one has to ask the question: is this being driven by practicality or dogma? I know the Minister well and I am sure that she would not want to be seen as dogmatic. She will want to be practical on these issues and she can give a clear indication to the House. The noble Lord, Lord Kerslake, is looking for not a head-on clash but a practical solution to a very serious problem. I hope that the Minister can give an assurance to the House, through accepting and supporting the noble Lord’s amendments, that there is some light at the end of the tunnel and not a purely dogmatic approach to dealing with both welfare cost and social housing.

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Blackstone]

My Lords, I did not get up again and ask the Minister for a reply to the question that I put at the end of the last group of amendments about the impact of the reductions in rent on the number of houses being built and on the Government’s targets, but I shall do so now as it is extremely relevant to my noble friend’s amendment.

When Governments introduce a policy of this sort—a rather unusual policy in some respects—it is right to then try to evaluate the impact and to monitor a change of this sort. It is simply a matter of good government. Therefore, I hope that, even if the Minister does not want to accept the precise wording of my noble friend’s amendment, she will at least come back to us and say, “Yes, of course, this should be evaluated and monitored. We will do it”. Above all, I would like an answer to my question about the Government’s current position on the effects of the reduction in rent on the longer-term targets that they want to achieve for housebuilding by 2020.

[Lord Horam]

My Lords, the noble Baroness, Lady Blackstone, may be amazed to know that I rather agree with her that all government policy should be carefully monitored to see its economic and social effect. However, while I well understand the purpose of the amendment—I appreciate that it is well meant—12 months is frankly far too short a period in which to see what the effect of this quite dramatic change in policy will be. It would be much more sensible to wait for a period of two to three years before you could sensibly look at the exact effect, either social or economic, of these policies. I see that the noble Baroness is nodding. I do not think that this proposal will work because 12 months is simply too soon. It is no time at all in which to look at the way in which the measures unfold.

[Lord McKenzie of Luton]

Does the noble Lord accept that there is a distinction between trying to understand what the Government currently think the impact of their policy will be and evaluating within a certain period in the future how it is working out?

[Lord Horam]

I appreciate that. Clearly, we ought to know as much as we can now about the effect of the Government’s policies as they are articulated in this Bill. None the less, a sensible monitoring process should allow a reasonable period of time for the whole thing to work through. I suggest that halfway through a Parliament is a much more sensible time than 12 months, frankly.