Queen’s Speech

Lord Green of Deddington Excerpts

Tuesday 24th May 2016 Lords Chamber

[Lord Green of Deddington (CB)]

My Lords, I would like to call the attention of the House to an overarching issue. It is one that affects most of the matters in the Queen’s Speech yet seldom gets the attention it deserves. The House may not be surprised to know that I refer to the rapid growth in our population, a population that has now reached 65 million—the highest in our history. Furthermore, it is growing at the fastest rate for nearly a century—that is, by approximately 500,000 a year, which is the equivalent of building a city the size of Liverpool every year or Birmingham every two years. This is a colossal task that is not even being addressed.

There is often a reluctance to discuss the matter lest it evoke unwelcome remarks about xenophobia, racism and so forth, so let me say now that a moderate level of immigration is a natural part of an open economy and an open society and it is often of considerable benefit to our country. Mass immigration, however, is in nobody’s interests. The issue, therefore, is one of scale, and that is what I shall address in the next few minutes.

The official projections show that another 3 million immigrants will arrive by 2030 and that our population will reach 80 million in 2060. At that point, we will probably be the most populous country in Europe and certainly the most crowded, except perhaps for Malta. Some people are vaguely aware of this prospect. What is not generally realised is that these projections assume that current levels of immigration will fall by 40% and stay down. I wonder how many noble Lords were aware of that critical element of the forecasts. If it should prove wrong and if net migration continues at current levels, we will have nearly 4.5 million more immigrants by 2030 who will need help in integrating into our society. In that case, we would hit 80 million in less than 25 years, so anyone now below the age of 50 would certainly see 80 million people in this country.

Throughout this period, we would have to build 370 homes every day just to house new immigrants and their families. That is one home every four minutes, day and night, for the next 20 years. Our continued failure to confront this issue, let alone tackle it, drives up rents and property prices. That leaves many young people locked out of the property market and living at home with their parents. We in the older generation should be ashamed of their situation.

In recent days, there have been some very crude calculations of the impact on immigration to the UK of any further expansion of the European Union. That may or may not come to pass, but the key point is surely a different and wider one. Nobody can be sure how the forces that drive mass migration will develop. What is sure is that, if we remain in the European Union, we will not be able—we will not have the powers—to reduce the future inflow from other member states, whatever its scale and impact on our society. That must surely be one of the key considerations as each of us weighs up the pros and cons of the momentous decision before us.