Growing the UK Economy

Lord Fox Excerpts

Monday 3rd February 2025 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Neville-Rolfe (Con)]

My Lords, the Government have told us that growth is their number one mission. That is the promise they have repeated again and again, and, given the difficult circumstances the country faces, that is sensible. That being the case, I am afraid that the Government’s statements—both that of the Chief Secretary to the Treasury to Parliament and the speech given by the Chancellor—do not measure up to the scale of what is required.

Above all, we need a recognition that the first steps of this Government—spreading pessimism; rewarding recalcitrant unions with large pay increases without them being tied to productivity increases; increasing stifling regulation, particularly on employment and renting; and increasing taxes—are precisely what should be avoided. Instead, we need an optimistic mindset—seizing the issue, and shaking up those who are not contributing and could do more—and a determination to make real progress, not a flabby wish list with no indication of how it will be achieved in practice.

Last week, Lloyds Bank announced 1,600 job cuts after the CBI warned of a “significant fall” in business activity in the private sector, and the normally robust supermarkets announced large job losses. This is before we start to feel the effects of the Government’s most burdensome measures, which come into force in April. Businesses are fearful, and consumers are showing caution in case they lose their jobs or face price rises that affect their families.

That does not mean to say the Government’s proposals are not welcome, up to a point, if they contribute to stability and growth as we hope. The expansion of Heathrow seems to be central to the Government’s plans to “unlock further growth”, but this will take well over a decade to come to fruition and seems to be highly contentious in the Cabinet. Will the present proposal outlive the Chancellor? It seems doubtful.

The Chancellor highlighted the importance of the life sciences sector and referenced AstraZeneca. It must have been embarrassing for the Government to hear of its decision not to go ahead with the much-needed new vaccine manufacturing plant in Speke—a £450 billion investment. I know that the value for money rules are not straightforward, but could matters not have been managed to secure a better outcome?

Having studied the discussion in the other place, I would be interested to know more about how the growth package will help Northern Ireland and how the Office for Investment will provide a line of sight to opportunities across the country.

We agree with the Chancellor that we must focus on removing barriers to growth, and that that means cutting regulation. It also means reversing the way in which the public sector has started to crowd out the more productive private sector since its necessary expansion to a wartime footing during Covid, yet the Government seem determined to do the opposite. Can the Minister explain what assessment the Government have made of the impact of their extra regulations on economic growth?

I am particularly concerned about energy. History shows that cheap energy is vital to growth. Our businesses in the UK already have to cope with the highest energy prices in the developed world, and that is set to get only worse. That is terrible news for industries such as steel, cement and ceramics. I am sure the Government will come to regret their decision not to support the Rosebank field and the punitive tax on oil and gas, alongside the delays in nuclear rollout and grid connections. I would not want to be the Energy Minister when the lights start to go out.

This is not a debate about welfare, but it is clear that more needs to be done to get people off welfare and into work as part of the growth mission.

Perhaps I could end on some positives. I am glad to see the plans for new investment in reservoirs. Successive Governments have been slow to meet that need. The Thames Tideway tunnel has been an early success in the water area, on time and largely on budget, in an impressive partnership with the private sector.

The Government are right to press ahead with more housing and to lift some of the regulatory constraints, although they should be doing more in the London area, where the pressure of population is worst. I am particularly pleased to see the new focus on building around railway stations, a recommendation of the Meeting Housing Demand report by the Lords Built Environment Committee, which I chaired at the time. How do the Government propose to report progress in this area?

[Lord Fox (LD)]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for sharing the Statement.

In a Janus-like switch from the gloomiest person in Whitehall, the Chancellor was all smiles last week. To cap that change in mood, she gave her much-heralded growth speech. The most notable feature, as far as I was concerned, was what was not in the speech.

We all know that committing the UK to a genuinely closer and more efficient trading relationship with the EU would be the quickest and most effective way of driving growth. That is why the Liberal Democrats have suggested a customs union as the most significant route to growth. If the Government do not believe us, they should commission the Office for Budget Responsibility to analyse the impact that a customs union with the EU would have on the economy and public finances, and then we could discuss the numbers.

Instead, the Statement was, in essence, a list of projects—some of them interesting, some of them less so. I believe they were intended to communicate as much a mood as actual projects. To cap the message was an exclamation mark: the announcement on Heathrow. I suppose the point of that was to suggest that the Chancellor and the PM were such growth ultras that they would even allow Heathrow an extra runway. Even though that is patently the wrong thing to do, seemingly the Chancellor was using Heathrow as a badge of her serious intent on growth. However, as we discussed just now in the previous Question, it is so far into the distance that it is growth window dressing. The numbers that are used are highly selective, and the estimated timings hopelessly defy reality when it comes to projects of that scale.

I think it was the former Chancellor George Osborne who coined the phrase “shovel-ready”, implying that some projects could start immediately. This is rarely the case, so it would be good to get an idea of the start time for some of the projects that the Chancellor listed. For example, when will we get the announcements on Gatwick and Luton, and how shovel-ready are they? When does the Minister expect those expansions to have any effect on our economy? Similarly, the suggestions that talks may be reopened regarding Doncaster Sheffield Airport are welcome, but is that idea backed by any central government investment or is it just talks with cash-strapped local authorities?

With such a heavy emphasis on air travel in the Statement, it was inevitable that, by way of some sort of offset, the Chancellor would talk about sustainable aviation fuel. Can the Minister tell your Lordships’ House the Treasury’s estimate for what the percentage and volume of SAF used for air travel departing the UK will be by 2030? How effective will its implementation be?

Finally, on the Oxford-Cambridge growth corridor, I can understand how some would see this as a great idea, but how will the idea be made flesh? The noble Lord, Lord Vallance, is to be the champion, but what is he championing? Your Lordships will be aware that the journey between the two university sites passes through many local authorities. Each, I am sure, will have their own idea and vision of what this corridor would or could be. Will the ministerial champion have any powers to compel a joined-up plan? Will he have any money to cajole authorities to bend to his will, or is this corridor a possible railway link for some time in the future, with a few road works?

Meanwhile, the bird has flown. As we just heard, AstraZeneca, Britain’s biggest public company, has pulled out of its proposed £450 million investment in a new vaccines plant, reportedly after “protracted discussions” with the Government. It is now no longer pursuing its plan for Speke. The implication is that the Government not only reduced the money on the table but did so very slowly. I do not want to hear from the Minister that the previous Government had not funded the offer. We know that they did not fund the offer; they funded virtually none of it. What I want to know is what thinking in the Treasury stopped the present Government funding this project? While having a Chancellor announcing airport expansions might make the odd headline, what delivers an effective message to future investors in this country is an announcement of the start-up of a project such as that.

As a result of this failure, can the Minister tell your Lordships’ House that he now recognises that it is the job of politicians much more positively to drive negotiations such as those? It is politicians who have to step in and remove administrative barriers, and it is up to them to make projects like this happen.

[The Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Lord Livermore) (Lab)]

My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lord, Lord Fox, for their comments and questions. As noble Lords will know, and as the Chancellor reaffirmed in her speech last week, growth is the number one mission of this Government. Without growth, we cannot cut hospital waiting lists, put more police on the streets or improve the lives of working people.

The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, spoke about our growth mission. As she knows, there was no bigger failure of the previous Government than their failure on growth. With their austerity, their disastrous Brexit deal and their Liz Truss mini-Budget, the combined effect was devastating. Had the economy grown by the average of other OECD countries over the past 14 years, it would be more than £150 billion larger today. We did not hear much humility for that record from the noble Baroness, and there has still been no apology for it to the British people.

As the Chancellor said last week, low growth is not our destiny, but growth will not come without a fight. While this country has incredible potential, the structural problems in our economy run deep; the low growth of the past 14 years cannot be turned around overnight.

The strategy that this Government have consistently set out is to grow the supply side of our economy, recognising that, first and foremost, it is businesses, investors and entrepreneurs that drive economic growth, alongside a Government who systematically remove the barriers that they face. Our strategy is based on three elements: stability, which is the basic condition for secure growth; reform, which makes it easier for businesses to trade, raise finance and build; and investment, the lifeblood of economic growth.

On stability, the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, spoke about the Budget. It was this Government’s duty in October last year to fix the foundations of the economy and repair the £22 billion black hole in the public finances that we inherited. We have always been clear that there are costs to responsibility—the increase in employers’ national insurance contributions will have consequences for businesses and beyond—but the costs of irresponsibility would have been far greater. I think the noble Baroness knows that, which is why we have still heard no alternative put forward by the Conservative Party: no alternative for dealing with the challenges we face, no alternative for restoring economic stability and, therefore, no plan for driving economic growth.

The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lord, Lord Fox, both asked about AstraZeneca. Government funding must demonstrate value for the taxpayer; a change in the investment proposition by AstraZeneca led to a reduced government grant offer being put forward. We remain closely engaged, though, with AstraZeneca on work to develop our new industrial strategy and our thriving life sciences sector, which is worth £108 billion to the economy and provides more than 300,000 highly skilled jobs across the country.

The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, asked about job figures. The OBR forecasts that, over the course of this Parliament, employment will rise and unemployment will fall. Our announcement last week about the third runway at Heathrow could create 100,000 new jobs. The investment zone that we announced in Wrexham and Flintshire with JCB and Airbus could create 6,000 new jobs and the investment by Prologis at East Midlands Airport 2,000 jobs. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the ability of our economy to grow and to create jobs.

The noble Baroness also spoke about business sentiment. In the Budget, we capped the rate of corporation tax and extended capital allowances for the duration of this Parliament. I hope that she will have seen the reaction of business leaders to the Chancellor’s speech last week. A business survey, which came out straight after the speech, suggested that two-thirds of businesses now feel more confident about our country’s growth prospects because of what the Chancellor announced. Rain Newton-Smith of the CBI said that businesses will welcome the Chancellor

“grasping decisions that have sat on the desk of government for too long”,

showing that the Government are serious about growth and prepared to take the tough decisions necessary. Shevaun Haviland of the BCC said that

“these proposals can light the blue touchpaper to fire up the UK economy”,

and Tina McKenzie of the FSB said:

“The positive energy in today’s speech … has our backing”.


The noble Baroness spoke about an optimistic mindset; I hope that she will respond by showing some of that same positive energy when it comes to the country’s and our economy’s prospects.

The second element of our strategy is reform. The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, spoke about welfare reform. We published our Get Britain Working White Paper at the time of the Budget to begin to tackle the unacceptable levels of inactivity that we inherited. We will publish a further welfare reform Green Paper this spring to begin to correct some of the incentives in the system.

The noble Lord, Lord Fox, asked about reform of our relationship with the EU. I know that he and I agree very much in our analysis of Brexit, and on the fact that the previous Government’s disastrous Brexit deal permanently reduced GDP by 4%, so we have to reset our relationship with the EU—our nearest and largest trading partner—to drive growth and support business. He will have seen that the Prime Minister is in Brussels today to meet European Union leaders for the first time since Brexit.

The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, spoke about regulatory reform. We know that business has been held back by complex and unproductive regulation, which is a drag on investment and innovation. We have already issued new growth-focused remits for our financial services regulators and announced a new interim chair of the CMA. We will publish a final action plan in March to make regulation work better for our economy. On her question about a specific assessment, as she will know, the OBR sets out the economic consequences of all our policies.

The third pillar of our growth strategy is investment. As noble Lords will know, at the international investment summit, we saw £63 billion of additional private sector investment committed to our economy. In the Budget, we announced an additional £100 billion of public sector investment, which the IMF has been clear is vital to unlocking high levels of growth.

The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, asked about energy prices. I completely agree with her that that is one of the biggest contributions that we could make to our growth prospects. It is why the transition to clean energy is so important in driving those energy prices down. I am grateful for her support on our housing policy.

We are seeing some encouraging signs in the British economy. The IMF has upgraded our growth prospects for 2025—the only G7 country outside the US to see this happen—which gives us the fastest growth of any major European economy this year. A global survey of CEOs by PwC has shown that Britain is now the second-most attractive country in the world for businesses looking to invest, the first time the UK has been in that position for 28 years. This is all welcome news, but we are, of course, not satisfied with the position we are in. We know that we need to go further and faster, which is why the Chancellor made the announcements that she did last week.

Whether it is the third runway at Heathrow, the Oxford-Cambridge growth corridor—creating Europe’s Silicon Valley here in the UK—the new stadium at Old Trafford, investment in Teesside in sustainable aviation fuel, or reopening the airport in Doncaster, all of these things are the next steps of our ambitious plan to grow our economy and make working people better off.

The noble Lord, Lord Fox, asked specifically about the Oxford-Cambridge growth corridor, and the role of my noble friend Lord Vallance. My noble friend absolutely is there to join up all the different bodies that exist. The noble Lord, Lord Fox, asked about the specific powers that my noble friend has. Obviously, the Government have many specific powers in this respect and it is my noble friend’s job to bring what is needed to the attention of the Deputy Prime Minister and the Chancellor so that they can use their considerable powers to do what is necessary to achieve the objectives that we have set out.

The noble Lord, Lord Fox, asked a specific question about Heathrow and sustainable aviation fuel. I will have to write to him on that point if he does not mind. I disagree with him overall in respect of his position on Heathrow, as I think he would expect. I see it as absolutely central to our growth prospects. The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, and the noble Lord, Lord Fox, asked about the timescale of the third runway expansion. We have asked Heathrow to come forward with plans by the summer. We then want to grant a development consent order in this Parliament. We will have spades in the ground at Heathrow in this Parliament, not years and decades into the future.

The noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Rolfe, also asked about Gatwick and Luton expansion. Decisions on those are both due to be made very shortly, but I cannot say more at this point about a specific timescale. She asked a question about Northern Ireland, about which I will also write to her if she does not mind.

We are making progress towards our number one mission of economic growth but, of course, we are not satisfied. We must go further and faster, so that we can put Britain on a better path and deliver for the British people.