Autumn Statement 2022

Lord Eatwell Excerpts

Tuesday 29th November 2022 Lords Chamber

[Lord Eatwell (Lab)]

My Lords, over the past three months, the Government have subjected the British economy to two episodes of extreme foolishness. First came the Truss-Kwarteng episode, going for growth without a coherent strategy and throwing money at the wealthy. Unfortunately for Britain, the ideology and economic reality did not mix. As a result, all Britain is worse off and the poorest suffer most. Then came this Sunak-Hunt episode, described by financial market experts as a “massive overreaction”. This time, political intent was dressed up as technical economics. Again, there was no coherent growth strategy as taxes were raised to an all-time high and massive expenditure cuts in 2024 and 2025 were announced. Why would anyone invest in a Britain that the Chancellor tells us is heading for a recession, not just now but with massive cuts in 2024 and 2025 too? The result is that all Britain is worse off. The two episodes share these common characteristics: no coherent plan for growth and severe damage to the British economy for years to come—a continuation of 12 years of Tory economic incompetence.

In the first half of 2010, with Alistair Darling as Chancellor of the Exchequer, the economy was growing at an annual rate in excess of 3%. Following the May election, with George Osborne as Chancellor, growth came to a shuddering halt. Austerity was the new, destructive policy. Education and local authority support for economic development were severely cut, and the NHS was underfunded. School spending per pupil in England fell by an average of 9% in real terms between 2009 and 2019—before the pandemic—which, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, was

“without precedent in post-war UK history.”

The result? England today is one of only a few OECD countries where the young have worse literacy and numeracy skills than 55 to 65 year-olds. Perhaps the Government were trying to balance things up, as they also halved spending on adult education. Is it any wonder there is a skills shortage?

As we know, there are currently major labour shortages in many sectors of the economy. Well over a million British workers are “missing” from the labour force. A significant contribution to the shortage of labour arises from those untreated or waiting for treatment in an overstretched NHS.

Let us add to these “headwinds”, as the Chancellor calls them, the cost of Brexit—another Conservative policy. We do not need to argue over the OBR’s estimate of a permanent 4% loss of GDP, and hence 4% loss of tax revenue: the negative impact of Brexit can be seen all around us, whether in migrant labour shortages, markets lost, SMEs withdrawing from European markets, or the Paris stock exchange overtaking London. The Conservative mayor of Birmingham has now commented on the damage to the economy in his area.

It was not the war in Ukraine that caused the current economic crisis: the war revealed the underlying long-term weakness of the UK economy. That is why the OECD ranks only Russia as a worse economic performer than the UK.

Now, to bookend the Conservative years, austerity is back. Twelve years of policies which have been consistently damaging to the economy raise an important question: why are Conservative Chancellors so incompetent? I think the answer is clear in their rhetoric: the private sector is portrayed as the “wealth creator” that has to carry the burden of funding the public sector. In a speech in 2014, George Osborne referred to

“government as the enemy of business and wealth creation”.

Similarly, in his 2021 Budget speech, Mr Sunak declared:

“Government should have limits”


and that

“my goal is to reduce taxes.”—[Official Report, Commons, 27/10/21; col. 286.]

In the Autumn Statement, Jeremy Hunt maintained the anti-state rhetoric by asserting that

“high-tax economies damage enterprise and erode freedom.”

Tell that to the Scandinavians. The point about these statements is not that reducing the burden of taxation is a bad idea—we all want lower taxes. In appropriate circumstances, cutting taxes may be a very good idea, but underfunding the public sector sources of growth is a very bad one.

However, in the Conservative mindset, the public and private sectors are seen as separate entities competing for resources—what economic nonsense. The private sector depends on top-class research conducted in publicly funded universities, on efficient infrastructure, and on a well-educated, adaptable, healthy labour force. Austerity that cuts spending on schools, libraries, skill centres and Sure Start, and underfunds the NHS, damages the very core of British private enterprise.

The lessons of economic history are clear. When in the latter half of the 19th century Germany sought to compete with the industrial strength of Britain, it created industrial banks to ensure the flow of long-term funding to nascent German industry, and it created the Technische Hochschulen to provide the scientific and engineering expertise to drive German industrial competitiveness. In more recent times, all the important technological innovations in the iPhone were made in public sector institutions; it was the public sector that took the extreme risks associated with experimental new technologies. It was the genius of Steve Jobs to take those public sector ideas and mould them into the most commercially successful product of modern times.

In today’s fast-changing competitive world of artificial intelligence and bioengineering, high risk and high reward go hand in hand. That is why the rest of this century must be the era of an entrepreneurial state. We need new institutions to channel funds to the development of new high-tech products and to link our outstanding research with commercial innovation; a pro-business state that complements private industry; and a well thought through medium-term growth strategy.

In vain, I searched the Autumn Statement for such a strategy. The Chancellor’s speech ends with what I can only interpret as a joke. He said that

“you do not need to choose either a strong economy or good public services. With the Conservatives, and only with the Conservatives, you get both.”—[Official Report, Commons, 17/11/22; cols. 845-56.]

When the Resolution Foundation reports that:

“Almost three-in-five households in the most deprived areas are already cutting back on essentials such as food and fuel”,


and the Institute for Government declares that the Autumn Statement’s impact on public services will be a “poisoned inheritance”, the joke is on the British people.

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Penn (Con)]

My Lords, I thank all noble Lords for their contributions to this debate. Given the range of expertise that has been contributed today, I will spend my time directly addressing as many noble Lords’ comments as possible.

Many noble Lords reflected on the economic circumstances that we find ourselves in. My noble friend Lord Lamont is correct in his analysis that there is no greater enemy than inflation. He reminded the House, as did the OBR, that the inflation we face is predominantly down to global forces, as my noble friend Lord Flight also noted. High inflation puts pressure on households managing those rising costs and, in turn, dampens growth. We have to be honest with people that we cannot shelter them from all of the effects of this economic storm. In our fiscal policy, we must be careful not to stimulate the economy in a way that makes it more difficult for the Bank of England to reduce inflation, leading to higher interest rates. So we have had to target our fiscal policy carefully.

But it is worth reminding noble Lords of the extent of the support that we are providing. Overall policy decisions since the Spring Statement provide support of £64 billion this year and £40 billion next year, which represents a combination of universal support, through the energy price guarantee, and targeted cost of living payments. In response to the noble Lord, Lord Rogan, the Government are working to ensure that the people of Northern Ireland receive energy bills support scheme support as soon as possible. I reassure him and the people of Northern Ireland that support will reach them this winter.

We have also taken action to uprate pensions and benefits in line with inflation, which I note, in the context of the contribution of the noble Lord, Lord Rooker, was a recommendation from Barnardo’s. We have accepted the Low Pay Commission’s recommendation to increase the national living wage by 9.7%.

Some noble Lords, including the noble Lord, Lord Fox, questioned the profile of the Government’s consolidation plans. But, again, we have had to strike a balance, providing support to households and the economy while inflation is high and growth is low—then, once growth returns, we will increase the pace of consolidation to get debt falling. The OBR delivered its verdict on our plans, saying that the recession will be shallower than it would otherwise have been, jobs will be protected and inflation will come down.

I must also correct the assertions of the noble Lords, Lord Hain and Lord Howarth of Newport, the noble Baroness, Lady Jones, and others that these plans are a return to austerity. In 2010, total departmental spending fell by about 3% a year; in this Parliament, it will rise at 3.6% a year in real terms. This is not just more money for public services; it is also considerably more money than the Benches opposite have committed to.

The noble Lord, Lord Hain, also claimed that the Autumn Statement would open the door to a Labour Government, but I remain slightly at a loss as to what Labour’s economic plans are. The noble Lord opposite made a valiant attempt to set some of them out, but I remain unclear: does it sign up to the need to consolidate our public finances? If it does, does it agree that we have taken a balanced approach between tax and spend? If it does not, what would it do differently?

I also profoundly, and perhaps unsurprisingly, disagree with the Benches opposite on this Government’s economic record. Over the last 12 years, alongside EU exit, the Government have had the third fastest growth in the G7. Since 2010, we have grown faster than France, Germany, Italy or Japan, and we have the lowest unemployment in nearly 50 years.

I will correct one further point from the noble Lord, Lord Razzall, and others, on the London Stock Exchange missing out to Paris. We had a Question on this the other week, where we addressed in quite a lot of detail why that is not the case. I also thank the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer, for reminding us of Labour’s own record on the economy.

Perhaps it is time for a little more consensus, and, in this debate, I heard more consensus on the need to improve productivity. Many noble Lords—including the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, my noble friend Lord Horam and others—spoke about the need for greater investment in public sources of growth. The Government agree, which is why public spending on capital investment will remain at the record highs set at the 2021 spending review, delivering more than £600 billion of investment over the next five years. I can only ask the noble Lord, Lord Eatwell, why he could not persuade his own party of the need for this in government, with capital budgets next year being more than double those under the previous Labour Government.

Noble Lords also spoke powerfully of the need to improve private sector investment, and many spoke about the need to support R&D. The noble Lords, Lord Fox and Lord Londesborough, among others, expressed concern about the Government’s planned changes to R&D tax credits for SMEs, and many noble Lords spoke about the importance more broadly of R&D, including my noble friend Lady Blackwood. I assure noble Lords that the Government remain unequivocal in their support for R&D, including recommitting to the largest ever R&D spending increase over an SR period. Our aim is to ensure that the spending is as effective as possible and to do more to work towards a simplified, single R&D tax credit for all.

The noble Lord, Lord Londesborough, asked whether the Government have considered the impact on productivity of the changes that we are proposing. From my experience looking at the R&D tax credit, the officials working on this think of almost nothing other than how we can make the R&D tax credit system the most effective it can be. We must recognise that the SME scheme has become a target for fraud. That is not to say that noble Lords did not make important points on the need to support research-intensive SMEs in particular. Ahead of the Budget, the Government will work with industry to understand whether further support is necessary for R&D-intensive SMEs without significant changes to the overall costs of the scheme. Over the SR period, we also increasing funding for Innovate UK by 50%, and 70% of Innovate UK’s grants benefit small and medium-sized enterprises.

Also on investment, the noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, asked about doing more regarding small modular reactors. I agree with him that, for Britain to achieve energy security, a pipeline of new nuclear is needed, alongside the large-scale project that we have committed to in Sizewell C. Today, the Government have confirmed their commitment to set up Great British Nuclear, an arm’s-length body which will develop a resilient pipeline for new builds beyond just Sizewell C.

On energy more broadly, many noble Lords, including the formidable noble Baronesses, Lady Hayman and Lady Jones of Moulsecoomb, raised questions about our approach to energy and climate change. I reassure noble Lords that the Government remain fully committed to reaching net zero by 2050, and to seizing the opportunities for growth through that transition.

On specific questions around the energy profits levy, several noble Lords, including the noble Lord, Lord Sikka, expressed concern about the design of the levy and the investment incentives in it. The Government have always been clear that the tax regime is intended to strike a balance between ensuring a fair tax return for the UK from its resources and continuing to encourage investment in the North Sea, supporting jobs and our energy security. I reassure the noble Lord that the Autumn Statement sets out that the Government expect to raise £41.6 billion from the EPL between 2022-23 and 2027-28, in addition to the £39 billion paid through existing taxes, ensuring that oil and gas companies pay their fair share.

The UK will also receive tax revenues from the investments made under the investment allowance, as and when they generate a profit. Given that these companies are mostly the same ones that are innovating and producing renewable energies, their investments will bring wider economic benefits through jobs, a secure supply chain and more progress towards net zero. Conversely, my noble friend Lord Leigh of Hurley voiced concerns about the impact of the EPL on independent UK companies and suggested that we use an approach more akin to the one that we have taken with electricity generators. His concerns are precisely why we have included such a generous investment allowance, which demonstrates our commitment to encouraging investment in the North Sea to strengthen the UK’s vital offshore oil and gas sector, putting more UK gas on the grid for longer and bolstering our energy security.

The noble Baroness, Lady Hayman, was also concerned about investment incentives for renewables under the electricity generators levy. The EGL is charged on a different basis from the energy profits levy and at a lower combined rate; the EPL is applied to total profits, whereas the EGL applies to only extraordinary returns above a given level. I reassure noble Lords that the electricity generators levy is designed in a way that maintains incentives for investment and preserves the effect of existing government support. Renewable generators will be able to deduct investment costs from their corporation tax.

[Lord Eatwell (Lab)]

I know that the Minister would not want to mislead the House, so I was very surprised by her figures on government investment. I looked up the OBR figures and, as a share of GDP, public sector net investment is now half what it was in the last year of the Labour Government.

[Baroness Penn (Con)]

My Lords, the statistics that I gave referred to overall levels of investment, not expressed as a percentage of GDP. I stand by the figures that I gave to the House.