UK-France Migration: Co-operation

Lord Davies of Gower Excerpts

Thursday 17th July 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Davies of Gower (Con)]

My Lords, illegal migration is one of the most challenging issues we face today. More than 21,000 people have used small boat crossings to illegally breach our borders this year so far. That number is up 56% from the same period last year. Some 78% of people polled by YouGov think that the Government’s handling of it is bad. As of 7 July, 51% of polled voters said that immigration and asylum was the single most important issue facing the country.

It is against this that the Government have to act. We disagree with the Government on many aspects of their approach to illegal migration and small boat crossings, as we are making very clear in our discussions on the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill, but it would be remiss of me not to welcome to some extent this step from the Government, which is a reflection of the fact that they appreciate the gravity of the situation and are making an attempt to deal with it. We on these Benches want to stop small boat crossings, and we must recognise that this is at least a small step in the right direction.

However, it would be remiss of me to let the Government get away with their Statement without some questions from our side. It may be that the intention behind this agreement is to create some sort of deterrent, and I am sure that the Minister will be able to confirm that this indeed is the Government’s intention. I do not wish to be condescending, but I assume that the plan, with such a low rate of return, is not itself designed to get the numbers down in any meaningful sense—the Minister said last week in Committee on the Bill that it takes time, and I agree with that—but I am afraid it is obvious to me that what we have before us is not a deterrent. If noble Lords permit me, I will run through the numbers which will explain why this is the case.

Under the agreement, the Government will return one in every 17 illegal immigrants arriving in the UK. Some 44,000 illegal migrants have arrived in the UK by small boats since Labour took power last year, and this year alone more than 21,117 migrants have crossed the channel—a 56% rise on the same period in 2024. Under this plan, the Government will still allow 94% of these illegal immigrants to stay in the United Kingdom. If you were in Calais considering making the crossing over to the UK in a small boat, would a 94% success rate be a deterrent to you?

I put it to the Minister that, with these odds, the overwhelming likelihood is that people will bank on being in the 94% and not in the 6% of people who face being returned to France. Then, of course, there is the question of what happens to those in the very unlucky 6% who return to France. What is to stop them from simply trying again? Can the Minister confirm to us now that no one coming over in a small boat will be one of the 6% who were returned previously? If people are simply able to try again, what is the point in returning them at all? Can the Minister tell us what the French will do with those who have been returned? I cannot imagine that the French taxpayer will want to foot the bill for housing them.

Finally, can the Minister clear up the question of whether the European Union will approve this plan? There is no certainty that the French can fulfil their side of the bargain without EU consent. It is obvious that several southern European states are getting ready to push back hard against this agreement as proposed. This discussion is entirely academic unless there is some clarity about whether it will come to fruition.

It is clear to us that the only way to properly address this problem is to remove every single illegal arrival as soon as they get here, either to their country of origin or to a third country. That would be a real deterrent. We saw that approach work in Australia about 10 years ago. Indeed, the Government inherited a deterrent of this magnitude when they came into office. We, when in government, did all the heavy lifting. The plan was ready to go. All the Home Secretary had to do was press “go”, but she and the Prime Minister cancelled the scheme just days before it was due to start. As a result, we now see record numbers crossing.

This side recognises some fundamental truths that the Government seem intent on ignoring. The first is that supply in this matter is driven by demand. The second is that supply will always try to meet demand, even under absolute prohibition. As I mentioned last week in a Bill Committee, the 18th Amendment to the US Constitution was—I am sure noble Lords agree—quite a bit stronger than anything the Government are proposing, yet that failed.

The third and final truth is that, if you want to stop supply, you need to stop demand. The simple fact of the matter is that, while there are thousands of people willing to pay massive sums of money to come to the UK illegally, there will be criminal gangs ready to take the money and get them here. Unless we deter them from coming, the gangs will not be smashed and the numbers will continue to rise. That 6% simply will not cut it; we need 100% removals as a deterrent.

Beyond the fundamental criticism of the Government’s plan, many further procedural issues arise from the agreement as it has been set out by the Government. For one thing, it is clear that every one of the 50 people selected to be returned to France would have the opportunity to launch lengthy, costly legal challenges against this decision. It is also clear that the French—after all the legal challenges and hoops have been jumped through—could simply refuse to accept whoever we try to send back.

I have said that this is a step in the right direction and, for all my criticism of the Government today, I mean that, but, most of all, we cannot afford to be ambiguous at this stage. If we have a system that sends back one in 17 people and allows them all to launch a legal challenge against this for—let us not forget—being returned to a safe third country 21 miles away, does it not send the message that the Government are not particularly serious about addressing this issue?

I believe that the Government and many noble Lords across the House recognise the seriousness of the situation. The numbers we have seen this year are, in short, totally out of control. This issue overwhelmingly concerns people in the United Kingdom, and I am pleased that the Government are trying to get a handle on it. Indeed, getting the French to do anything after the £770 million that we have given them is welcome. However, I do not believe that this plan will achieve what the Government intend. It is simply too soft; it sends back far too few people and is ripe for delay and vexatious claims—all at the taxpayers’ expense. The numbers simply do not add up. We cannot cheer in support of a plan that sends back 6% of arrivals as a success, when the numbers this year are up 56%.

The noble Lord faces a serious issue and we appreciate that but, in doing so, he and his Government need to introduce a serious solution. I am afraid that what is before us today will not cut the mustard, and I think the noble Lord and the Government are aware of that.