Ukraine

Lord Brennan Excerpts

Friday 31st October 2025 Lords Chamber

[Lord Brennan (Non-Afl)]

My Lords, I have to declare a connection with Ukraine. In April 2018, as a barrister, I advised the Government in Kyiv about joining the European Union. I went with them in a delegation to Brussels at the end of that month, so if it turns out that I know people, that is the background as to why.

In my submission, the real question about the emphasis over the next four months should be in relation to military assistance or a more intelligent commercial attack on Russia. In terms of continued assistance, the Minister is to be commended for the nobility of the deep commitments he has given Ukraine from our country.

Why? I got some evidence yesterday morning from the man who runs the drone force for the Ukranians. He sent an electronic radar picture, like a photograph, which tracks all the bombs, drones and missiles across Ukraine during the night. The image that it produced for Wednesday night was horrific. Everywhere was due to be bombed or hit—in particular the area to the west of the Dnieper River. They are called the Heights. Once you get over 20 or 30 kilometres of the Heights, you hit flat land and it is then a straight run to Kyiv. The Russians are clearly bent on getting control of the Heights, in terms of bombing and men. We must continue to help the Ukrainians as best we can.

When will Russia stop or change its mind? Some noble Lords may have read Peter Frankopan’s article in the Financial Times this week about Putin’s reading list. He has got all the information from the Trump office and other places. Putin has drowned people with whom he has been negotiating with long pieces about Russian medieval history, which in Peter Frankopan’s terms he put into a “thousand-year continuum”. The Ukraine extension is part of that history of Russia and its inevitable process of expansion. It is quite remarkable. In the history that Frankopan describes, one of the main areas of interest for Putin was the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, which at that time had a massive land force connection across southern Russia.

What could he do next? The fight has to go on. Four years next February, after a chill winter, it will be the same as the whole of the First World War or two-thirds of the Second World War. In the middle of central Europe, this is happening to our people, fellow citizens.

So keep the support on the military front. What about financial pressure? Sanctions, reparation fund requirements, are so obvious a weapon that it is remarkable that it is only in the last couple of months that America in particular has started to push hard in terms of oil and gas sanctions: ways of attacking the Russians economically. That is very, very important. The Russian GDP figure for the inclusion of oil and gas shows a drop of nearly 10% in the last 12 months—money coming in through GDP—and 26% in month-on-month public finances receipts. Those are enormous amounts of money that they are losing. We should stick hard on that front. The Russians have just put up for international sale Lukoil and Rosneft, their two biggest foreign oil companies, because they are not making money from them. Trump seems to have pushed the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries in particular into pursuing the oil market going across Asia.

After this trouble, perhaps after next February, Ukraine will need a new President. It is due electorally by the laws of the country. Zelensky has been President since 2019. Next year will be his seventh year. It is time enough. Ukraine needs a man or woman who is smart, effective and able to control, to take over the country anew once we get through the next six to 12 months— and to be supported in doing that. As far as Putin is concerned, I was once in Moscow and a Russian told me, “You can get the man out of the KGB, but you can’t get the KGB out of the man”. That is Putin.