Transport: Road Building

Lord Berkeley Excerpts

Tuesday 8th October 2013 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[Lord Berkeley]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what forecasts for road traffic they used in setting their current road building programme.

[Lord Popat (Con)]

My Lords, in July this year the Government published Investing in Britain’s Future and Action for Roads, which set out a package of investment and reforms for the strategic road network. This work drew on the Department for Transport’s 2013 national traffic forecasts, published alongside, to inform strategy for the network. However, the identification and selection of individual highway schemes for the national programme is based on local forecasts and National Trip End Model data, which feed into scheme appraisals.

[Lord Berkeley (Lab)]

I am grateful to the Minister for the reply, but is he aware—he probably is—that the development of accurate transport forecasts for traffic has not been achieved in the past 20 years? In fact, if 1990 forecasts had been met today, we would have 50% more traffic than we do. Therefore, what is the point of building more brand-new roads when existing ones are in such an awful state, when we could have more investment in buses, cycling and walking, and might even be able to fill in some of the potholes that cyclists regularly fall into?

[Lord Popat]

My Lords, the department produces forecasts on a regular basis. Modelling is rarely, if ever, perfect, as we are predicting the future. However, we are confident that the forecasts are broadly in line with the traffic pattern. We are investing in existing roads. It is vital that Britain has an infrastructure system fit for the global race, which will involve investing in new as well as existing roads, including filling in those potholes. The department has investigated whether traffic has reached its peak and has concluded that it has not: nor is it likely to in the near future. The forecast is for total road traffic to rise by about 43% over the next 30 years.