Finance (No. 2) Bill

John Redwood Excerpts

Thursday 18th April 2013 Commons Chamber

[Mr John Redwood (Wokingham) (Con)]

Can the hon. Lady tell me her definition of the “strong growth” that her new clause says would trigger VAT being put up again?

[Cathy Jamieson]

I thank the right hon. Gentleman for his intervention. Given that I have not really got under way with all the details of the new clause, I will come to those points later. However, I will say that one thing we know is that the Office for Budget Responsibility has halved the growth forecast for this year and downgraded it again for next year, so we are not in a situation of strong growth. The Government really have to take responsibility for that, because since the Chancellor’s spending review in 2010 the UK economy has grown by just 0.7%, compared with the 5.3% forecast at the time. I do not think that anyone could suggest that that was particularly successful. Last year, of course, the UK went through a double-dip recession and the economy shrank by 0.3% in the last quarter.

[Mr Redwood]

The hon. Lady is quite right that growth has been very disappointing and that the forecasts have been revised downwards, but we are debating her policy, which is that VAT should go up again when the UK economy returns to “strong growth.” It is a very simple question: can she tell us what strong growth would trigger an increase in VAT?

[Cathy Jamieson]

As I have indicated to the right hon. Gentleman, whose views I listen to and who always raises pertinent questions, I will come to that, but the Government must also take responsibility for, as we heard in the previous debate, trying to give all sorts of reasons why the economy has not recovered. As my hon. Friend the Member for Newcastle upon Tyne North (Catherine McKinnell) suggested, we were surprised to hear that the latest reason given seems to be the issue of the 50p tax rate, rather than looking at the situation in the round. I want to talk a little more about some of the issues that the economy currently faces and why we think our proposal is one way of stimulating the economy and looking to the future in order to help local businesses.

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[Cathy Jamieson]

My hon. Friend is a powerful advocate for the people in his constituency who are bearing the brunt of the Government’s policies, and he is absolutely right. It is important that there is no further widening of that gap. This is not just about the money in people’s pockets, important though that is, but the fabric of society and the relationships that people build in their local communities.

It is important to consider the impact on our high streets. For generations, local businesses have offered jobs and the convenience of shopping in the local high street, and have been involved in providing services there. They are now under pressure from the flatlining economy. Consumer spending has been constrained by high inflation and stagnant wages, leading to a 6% fall in real disposable income in 2008, with a devastating impact on our local high streets. Shops are lying empty, with a threefold increase in that trend since 2008. Household names such as HMV, JJB Sports, Blockbusters and Comet have been forced to close a large number of stores or to shut up shop completely. It is estimated that last year 1,800 shops were forced to close—a staggering tenfold increase on the year before. We have heard about the impact on the pub industry, and there has been a call for the VAT rate to be considered in that context.

Not only is retail suffering, but businesses of all kinds up and down the country are feeling the impact of the Government’s failed economic policies and the flatlining economy. That has led, and is still leading, to a lack of confidence, particularly in the construction sector, with many arguing that more must be done to get people back to work and to get projects under way. Sadly, Project Merlin did not deliver the new era of loans that it was supposed to. We learned this week that lending to UK businesses fell by £2 billion in December alone, and it is down by £18.6 billion over the past year, while businesses continue to suffer. The Business Secretary seems perhaps finally to be recognising this failure. He boasted at his party conference that he would set up a Government-backed bank to get billions of pounds to businesses that need it, but we are still awaiting the fine detail of what that bank will do and when and how businesses will be helped. They may well have to wait some time for it to be up and running.

I shall draw my remarks to a conclusion because I want to give other hon. Members the opportunity to raise issues on behalf of their constituents and put the case to the Government. There are things we can do to help businesses and individuals through these tough times. We could reform the funding for lending scheme so that banks can access the lowest rates of funding only if they increase lending to businesses as well as overall lending, and extend it beyond the end of 2013, as currently envisaged by the Government, to the end of 2014. Let us do what every other G8 economy has done and set up a state-backed investment institution to provide credit to small businesses where others will not by establishing a proper British investment bank. As we have argued, that could be done through a new network of regional banks like the German Sparkassen. That would also help to return SMEs to a local relationship with banking, with managers who know what is needed on the ground and have the discretion to make local lending decisions. Regional banks are committed to their regions and in touch with local business. We have called for, and will continue to call for, the Government to bring forward these measures to help boost our businesses and get our economy moving again.

Even if the Government accepted all those proposals and they were acted on today, the benefits would take some time to come to the fore and to be felt. However, the one step we could take now that would immediately make a difference would be for the Government to agree to reduce VAT to 17.5% to put money back into the pockets of hard-working people and give a stimulus to local economies. That would put something back into the pot to help the local businesses we have talked about, whether by reducing fuel costs or stimulating the economy such that people feel that they are able to spend again. We need to get consumers back out there spending their money, supporting our high streets and businesses, and helping our economy to grow again. It is for the Government to explain to the people of the UK why they will not listen to the arguments that have been advanced and are not prepared to take this action as a stimulus to the economy and to help to get things moving again.

[Mr Redwood]

The proposed new clause is designed to stimulate strong growth, which I suspect everyone in this House would welcome. I trust that the Government are in the market for ideas that would stimulate strong growth, but my sad conclusion is that a sudden cut in VAT of undefined duration is neither a sufficient condition for stimulating strong growth in the economy nor even a necessary precondition of such stimulation.

We have to ask what the alternative is to the Opposition’s recommendation, which we all agree is well-intended because they wish to see strong growth. I submit that the prime thing the Government need to do to raise the growth rate and get over this period of extremely disappointing performance is mend the banks. It is surprising that the official forecasters at the Office for Budget Responsibility thought there would be strong growth over the past three years, because they knew that the official policy on the Royal Bank of Scotland, which is largely state owned, was to push the bank through the most enormous slim-down, a continuation of the policy begun in 2008 when it was largely acquired by the state under the previous Government.

So far, £900 billion of assets and liabilities have been removed from RBS’s £2.2 trillion balance sheet since the state foolishly took them on. How can we expect the British economy to grow rapidly when its leading bank is going through a forced slimming programme of £900 billion? This is big money, even for a £1.5 trillion economy. We spend most of our time in this place discussing the odd £5 billion or £10 billion—we are now billionaires in our discussions rather than millionaires— but these figures have very little overall impact on a £1.5 trillion economy, whereas £900 billion is eye-poppingly large. We have to deal in trillions now if we want to see the things that really make a difference to the economy. I submit that the main reason why our economy is not growing rapidly is that the banks, led by RBS and abetted by HBOS, have been on a very sharp slimming programme. It is true that some of those assets were foreign and a lot of them were derivatives and so on, but overall, this massive slimming programme has clearly placed enormous pressure on the UK economy.

In addition, this place, as part of the political debate, has discovered that bankers are even more unpopular than politicians, so it has taken great delight in trying to do as much damage as possible to the banking industry. I understand that the banking industry did not do well for itself—I am enough of a politician to realise the politics of all this—but if we target one of our biggest and most successful industries of the previous decade and force it into slimming down measures and tax it more, we should expect a drop in output, and that is what has happened. One of the reasons why we do not have much growth in this country is that our lead sector of the previous decade has taken such a big hit and is now so politically unpopular that pressures remain to prevent it from growing and recovering as some of us would like.

A third area that has caused considerable problems is oil and gas. We cannot legislate to change the age profile of our reservoirs, many of which have aged a lot recently in terms of the amount of oil and gas left to exploit. There are arguments about other tax policies we could pursue to stimulate more finds and exploitation, but some of the big, successful reservoirs of previous years are now ageing, so whoever was running the country was going to experience a reduction in output from another of our high-value-added sectors—oil and gas—and that was bound to hit the growth rate.

What more can we do to overcome those difficulties in two of our lead sectors? Tax measures proposed by other clauses that we will discuss later could be helpful. Broadly speaking, the lower the tax rate, the better from the point of view of stimulating growth, and there have been some measures in the right direction.

The problem with the proposed new clause’s VAT measure is that it is so expensive and I do not think we would get a big enough return for the colossal loss of revenue that it would cause. We have already heard an estimate of about £10 billion, but the Labour Opposition have given us no figures whatsoever. They have not told us how much it would cost, how long it would be a concessionary rate and on what conditions they would return to the new rate. That weakens their case, because if they wish to make this a serious policy, they need to cost it and explain by how much the deficit would rise in the early stages and at what point the growth would accelerate enough to start to generate serious revenues from increased activity.

The evidence seems to be that, whereas it is possible to do serious damage to the revenues generated by income tax and capital gains tax if the rates are put up too much—I fear that that is what has happened under the Labour and coalition Governments in recent years—it is more difficult to depress the revenues of VAT. Indeed, the increase from 17.5% to 20% actually produced some increase in revenue, despite the poor performance of the economy, so the argument that cutting the rate generates more revenue—economists call it the Laffer curve argument—does not apply in the same way as it does to taxes geared towards gains and income, whereby more realistic rates would do two good things, namely generate more growth and, therefore, more tax revenue. I fear that the problem with the VAT proposal is that this short-term measure would definitely increase the deficit and that the stimulus from VAT would not be sufficient to replace the lost revenue in any serious period of time over which this experiment might be tried.

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[Mr Redwood]

The hon. Gentleman makes a fair criticism of my remarks, but to stay in order I did not mention the changes to energy policy necessary to have cheaper energy or the changes to other taxes that I would like implemented to boost to the economy.

[Albert Owen]

As a member of the Energy and Climate Change Committee, I understand the difficulties. I realise that one of the major problems—the price of crude oil and gas—is external and that we could have a wider debate about that, but I am talking specifically about the need to boost the domestic economy.

Small businesses tell me that high street names are folding, first, because they have tight margins, and secondly because, although footfall might be steady, people are spending less money. The 2.5% increase in VAT is making a real difference and taking money out of people’s pockets. I support raising personal income tax thresholds as a way of helping the low-paid, but it can have no impact if cancelled out by a VAT increase. That is what business tells us. A small business leader in my area makes a little joke about the Chancellor: every time that that business leader goes out with his wife, daughter and son-in-law, he has to take the Chancellor with him, because one-fifth of the bill is shared with him. That is not a good state of affairs. If business people are starting to think like that, it means that confidence has been eroded. One way of providing the necessary boost to confidence in the domestic market would be to reduce VAT temporarily.

Those are not just my words; they were also the words of the Prime Minister before the general election, when he said that VAT was a regressive tax, which it is. I am in full agreement with him. The Deputy Prime Minister—there are not many Liberal Democrats here today—said that putting up VAT during a recession would be a bombshell for the economy, yet that is exactly what the Government have done. I have argued consistently for keeping VAT, which is a regressive tax, as low as possible in order to stimulate the economy.

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[Mr Jackson]

The hon. Gentleman might say that, but it is incumbent on Her Majesty’s loyal Opposition to specify the amounts and where the cuts would be made in other ways. It is not acceptable to dodge the issue, and that goes even for the simple question of what is “strong growth”. At what stage would that be measured? How would we quantify “strong growth”? It is rather mealy-mouthed.

Let us look at the wider context. Interest rates are historically low. Perhaps the hon. Gentleman is not old enough—or maybe he is—to know that in 1975 they were 27%, under a Labour Government. Inflation was substantially higher through most of the ’70s and ’80s. We now have big cash balances, lower interest rates, relatively low inflation, lots of money in the economy and quantitative easing, which has been in place for many years. Even if we accept the traditional Keynesian view—that just pumping money into the economy will deliver growth, jobs and prosperity, which seemed to inform the argument that the hon. Member for Kilmarnock and Loudoun made—we should accept that it has not worked so far through quantitative easing, with the balances that are available. The issue is business confidence.

In the wider context—wider even than that—between 2000 and 2010, public expenditure rose from roughly £450 billion to more than £700 billion. That is the context in which we should look at these fiscal changes. It is not as if we have starved the economy of money in the public sector. The difficulty for the hon. Member for Ynys Môn in arguing in defence of the Government at that time is that the economy was so unbalanced. It was focused disproportionately on the housing market, public expenditure and financial services. Part of our challenge as a Government is to try to rebalance the economy, so that it can make people prosperous and create jobs across wider economic activities, which is happening organically on its own.

Those on the Opposition Front Bench also fail to take into account the other, bigger policies that the Government have embarked on. I will not pretend that things such as the national insurance holidays or the regional growth fund have been an enormous success. I serve on the Public Accounts Committee and we have been critical of things that the Government have pursued in some areas. Nevertheless—the hon. Gentleman alluded to this—the Government are looking at tariffs for utility bills, the beer duty escalator and the fuel duty escalator. We are looking at substantial changes that will have a fiscal impact on welfare, through the universal credit and so on making work pay, rather than paying for idleness and allowing people’s talents to be wasted. We are also putting money into the mortgage market and assisting new house building. Some 42,000 of my constituents had a tax cut last week as a result of the massive fiscal changes that this Government have made, with 2,000 of my constituents paying no tax at all and 24 million people affected. It seems rather unfair not to take that on board.

I also alluded earlier to the progressive nature of our tax changes. Whatever we say about them, it cannot be argued that we have not looked at the top 5% or 10% of income earners in this country to ensure that they are paying a significantly higher share than others. They are the people who will specifically be more worse off than anyone else, whether the hon. Gentleman likes it or not.

[Mr Redwood]

It is unfair to say that VAT is a very regressive tax. If it were applied across everything, it would be, but because it does not apply to food and some other items that figure much more highly in low-income budgets, it is not nearly as regressive as has been suggested.

[Mr Jackson]

Exactly. We could argue at length about the progressiveness of various taxes—no doubt others would want to—but my right hon. Friend makes an astute point.

The final example is council tax. That depends on the local authority, but in general, most councils have frozen council tax. Therefore, the suite or portfolio of the Government’s fiscal changes that have helped working people is quite significant.

Let me say in finishing that we expect more from an Opposition two and a half years into a Parliament. We expect them to come up with policies that are credible. We expect them to move on from policies that just tick the box of opposition. No doubt the hon. Member for Kilmarnock and Loudoun, who is well connected in the Labour party, will have read the comments of Tony Blair, a three-time election winner, in the 100th anniversary edition of the New Statesman. He cautions the Labour party not to fall back into the comfort zone, not to be a repository of anger, but to be an outward-looking, forward-looking progressive party. I am sure that the Labour Whip on the Front Bench, the hon. Member for Sedgefield (Phil Wilson), would agree with his predecessor and say that that is sage and intelligent advice. It is so because we expect proper, costed policies. What we have had today is an unfunded tax cut that does not help the people I believe the Labour party genuinely wants to assist to have a better life. I would caution the hon. Member for Kilmarnock and Loudoun to come back with more coherent, more intelligent and more credible policies. That is why I will not support new clause 2.