Tourism Industry and VAT

John Pugh Excerpts

Tuesday 17th March 2015 Westminster Hall

[John Pugh (Southport) (LD)]

I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Ceredigion (Mr Williams) not only on securing this debate but on having campaigned vigorously for years on this theme.

I have only one point to make. I was standing in Strangers yesterday holding up a placard about VAT and tourism while pointing at a screen. I chanced to ask the person who had asked me to do that, when he put his camera down, how long the campaign had been running for. He said that it had been running for about 18 years, to his knowledge. Hon. Members can imagine people from the industry trooping into the Treasury during those 18 years to speak to stony-faced mandarins, who find reasons for inaction. Ministers will have come and gone during that time, but the Treasury’s line will be familiar to the people lobbying it.

I am sure that, in those discussions, the Treasury will have heard good words, such as “growth”, “expansion”, “development” and “jobs”, and phrases it does not want to hear, such as “forfeit of revenue”, “loss of income” and so on. However, a counter-argument has always been put, which I could put in terms of a Laffer curve if I actually understood what a Laffer curve was. In simple terms, the counter-argument is that if there is development and growth, there will be more taxpayers, and more business will be done, so there will be more revenue and other gains, such as regeneration, which other Members have spoken about. The real choice, as far as the Treasury is concerned, is between getting more tax at a lower rate from more people, and getting more tax at a higher rate from fewer people.

That seems to be the hard choice the Treasury faces, and it is at best cost-neutral. I am not sure that it is cost-neutral in the short term—no one has suggested that, I think—but it certainly is in the long term, and it has other benefits, including regeneration and reviving areas such as the south-west and north-west.

[Sir Nick Harvey (North Devon) (LD)]

With five visits being made outwards from the UK for every two incoming visits, would there not be an additional benefit, of improving the balance of trade?

[John Pugh]

Indeed. Many persuasive arguments would suggest a net benefit to the Treasury from what we propose.

Treasury scepticism is not wholly unreasonable, but it can be allayed. I do not think that international comparisons console the Treasury especially; perhaps the thinking is that such comparisons relate to foreign places where the world functions differently, and tax regimes and people’s behaviour are different, and therefore the Treasury is not satisfied by ample international evidence. Certainly it will not be satisfied by research, however good, commissioned by the industry.

There is a way forward, however. The solution is not simply inaction. The Treasury could commission its own independent research, on a basis agreeable to the industry. That would be a huge step forward—some progress in relation to the past 18 or 19 years. It would be a step along the path of evidence-led policy—a good step to take. We would all be amazed if tomorrow the Chancellor said that he had decided to cut VAT for tourism. We would fall about and do more than wave our Order Papers—we would go into paroxysms. However, he could, if he wanted, do something that would cost nothing and might attract a great deal of good will: he could say, “We will have some independent research commissioned on this very difficult subject on which Parliament has occupied itself for some considerable time.” That would lay the ghost to rest and bottom out the issue.

Why should the Chancellor not do that? It would be an intelligent reaction to the plausible and effective argument that has been put by a crucial industry employing many more people than is ordinarily to be expected. If the Chancellor does not do that, he could be embarrassed later by someone moving an amendment to require the exact same thing. I have little doubt that it would be carried, as there is widespread support in the House for such research.

--- Later in debate ---

[Shabana Mahmood]

The hon. Gentleman will know that in the early part of this Parliament, we proposed an alternative package to the Government as an immediate measure to stimulate the economy. It envisaged a temporary VAT cut, which at the time could have made a difference across the whole economy and might have meant being in a different position today. I note, though, that the previous Labour Government, when lobbied on the issue, felt that targeting the cut in the way then envisaged would not necessarily have produced the effects anticipated by hon. Members.

That is why it would be helpful to hear more from the Minister about current Treasury thinking and analysis of the available evidence. An incoming Labour Treasury would certainly want to consider all that evidence and see the analysis at first hand. In particular, we would want to understand the relationship between different measures that could be taken, including a potential VAT tax cut compared with, for example—the Government have also cited this in defence of their position—the employment allowance, a £2,000 rebate on employer national insurance contributions introduced by the Government earlier in this Parliament. I would also want to be convinced that we would achieve as close to 100% pass-through of such a big change if we were to start considering seriously the case for making it.

However, we return to the fact that if we cut VAT in that way, the most recent Office for National Statistics data from 2012 suggest an annual cost to the Exchequer of £11 billion to £12 billion. Those sums would have to be found elsewhere, and we as an incoming Labour Government would not be in a position to make that choice. So I cannot commit to a VAT cut of the nature called for by the campaign, although I can of course commit, if I become a Treasury Minister after the election in May, to assessing the analysis and all available evidence. I will also work with colleagues in the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport to examine what else can be done to assist the tourism sector and ensure that it plays its full part in encouraging sustained and balanced economic growth. I am sure that the Cut Tourism VAT campaign will continue to make its case in full heart in the life of the next Parliament; it is certainly made up of doughty parliamentary campaigners. I look forward to engaging with them in much the same way that I know the Minister has engaged with them thus far in this Parliament.

Tourism is a hugely important sector to the UK. It is our fourth largest service industry; it employs 9.6% of the UK work force, or 3.1 million people; it generates 9% of the UK’s entire GDP; and in 2013 it contributed £127 billion to the economy. So, it is in everybody’s interests to ensure that the sector grows, thrives and continues to provide the jobs necessary for UK plc.

As I highlighted in our debate on tourism last year, there are other policy levers that can be pulled, without the cost implications that a VAT cut on tourism would entail, which would still be of real benefit to the sector. One of the most effective of those levers could be around immigration policy, particularly given the complexity around fees, visa applications and the monitoring required to make sure that people do not overstay their visa. The Government have made particular changes with respect to some countries, such as China. However, it is the case that other countries are deemed to be a high risk for potential overstaying but whose genuine visitors are often locked out. I see that in my own constituency with visitors who want to come from the Indian subcontinent, but the immigration officials almost take a first view that those people are more likely to overstay than not. Often, that is not the case. People want to come to the UK to see the land that their forefathers left their countries of origin for, and they wish to come and celebrate family events such as weddings. They will spend money here, and their British citizen relatives will spend money showing them a good time and showing them what Britain is all about. We should assist that process and not hold it back.

Therefore, although I cannot agree for the cut that has been called for, I commend the work of the Cut Tourism VAT campaign and the work of its supporters in the House. We will continue to work closely with the tourism sector and we look forward to hearing more from the campaigners in the future.

[John Pugh]

I hope the hon. Lady will indulge me. She says that she does not agree to the cut, but would she agree to the concept of having independent research commissioned by the Treasury? Has she any fundamental objection to that, which would be a lesser commitment?

[Shabana Mahmood]

I am grateful for that intervention. I do not have a fundamental objection, in principle, to that idea, but I am not in a position to commit to a formal review of some kind. Nevertheless, as I have said, if I was in the Treasury I would happily look at any additional evidence and at the Treasury’s analysis of the data at first hand, rather than hearing it from the Minister.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Gauke]

As I say, a comparison of the Republic of Ireland with the UK as a whole suggests that there is not a big difference. Indeed, I understand that there has been a pretty positive increase in the number of tourists to Northern Ireland specifically in recent years.

All hon. Members will be aware that this Government’s priority is to tackle our budget deficit decisively but fairly and to restore confidence in our economy. The Government have concluded that a VAT cut would not produce sufficient economic growth to outweigh the revenue shortfall. I have not seen any new conclusive evidence that has led me to revisit that conclusion. So at present the Government have no plans to introduce a VAT cut for this sector.

I reassure hon. Members that the Government recognise the importance of the tourism industry and we remain committed to a wide range of other measures to support the sector. For example, to date we have invested more than £129 million through VisitBritain and VisitEngland, to market great British holiday destinations at home and abroad. This has already leveraged significant private sector investment of more than £84 million. We have announced a £10 million tourism in the north fund in the next financial year. We have announced £2 million in the next financial year, to help promote our cities and regions overseas as part of the GREAT campaign, through VisitEngland.

The tourist industry has benefited from other policies introduced by this Government. I thank my hon. Friend the Member for Aberconwy (Guto Bebb) for making this point. For example, capping business rates and doubling business rates relief benefits the retail and hospitality sector by a considerable sum. Those sectors have benefited from the introduction of the employment allowance and will benefit from the abolition of employer's national insurance contributions for under-21s and for apprentices under 25.

[John Pugh]

I hope that this intervention will help. The Minister is saying clearly to the industry and to hon. Members that he has seen no conclusive evidence. If that is not to be a fob-off, should not he sketch out what conclusive evidence would look like to the Treasury? What is the Treasury actually looking for in evidence that would convince it that this case was valid? If he cannot say that, it will simply look like a stalling move.

[Mr Gauke]

A considerable amount of evidence has been produced. The essence of the case is that we would want to see evidence suggesting that the benefits to the economy outweigh the costs. The costs to the Exchequer are, as I have outlined, considerable. The Cut Tourism VAT campaign acknowledges in the numbers that it has produced—I can go into a little bit more detail on issues that we have with its methodology—that there would be an immediate shortfall. Its argument is that, over time, much if not all of that shortfall would be recovered. However, that immediate shortfall has to be dealt with. There is not the opportunity for us to say, “We can borrow extra billions of pounds to fund this, in the hope that that money will be recovered in future years.” If we undertook such a measure, we would need to replace that shortfall with additional taxes or reduced spending, and that in itself would have an impact upon the economy.

The actions we have taken in support of VisitBritain and VisitEngland and the tax reforms that I outlined, are delivering positive results for the UK tourist sector. Provisional figures for 2014 show that the UK welcomed 6% more visitors than in 2013: a total of 34.8 million. In total, UK tourist spend is also up by 3%, which is a total of some £21.73 billion. Provisional figures for tourism in Wales for 2014—the hon. Member for Ceredigion will be interested—show that more people are holidaying in Wales than ever before, with Wales now accounting for over 12% of holidays in Great Britain, leading to an increase on holiday spend in Wales. I am certain that, on top of the increase in numbers, all the successful events that the UK hosts year on year will only serve to make more people aware of the UK’s desirability as a tourist location.

Wherever we can, the Government will of course continue to invest in tourism and provide support for tourism across the UK. Although the hon. Gentleman, and other hon. Members who spoke in this debate, may be disappointed with my answer on VAT, I hope he and other hon. Members will be reassured that we support the sector; that, wherever we can, we will continue to support it; and that we are confident that both inbound and domestic tourism numbers will continue to rise.