Met Office

John Nicolson Excerpts

Tuesday 27th October 2015 Westminster Hall

[John Nicolson (East Dunbartonshire) (SNP)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Streeter. The Scottish National party Government Minister Humza Yousaf once observed that there are two seasons in Glasgow: taps oan and taps aff. To translate for those who are hard of Scots, that means removing one’s upper garments, or keeping one’s upper garments on. Of course, as everybody knows, the colder and wetter it gets in Glasgow, the more clothing people remove. My constituency is the second-wettest in the United Kingdom, just missing out on the top spot to Cardiff.

Although people from Scotland joke and vent their frustrations about the unpredictable weather that we experience throughout the day, accurate weather forecasting is essential to the country. The landscape and natural environment of Scotland are one reason why detailed weather forecasting is so important. Tourists from all over the world come to marvel at Scotland’s natural beauty, climb our mountains, trek in our glens or explore our cities. They need to know the weather in advance to ensure that they dress appropriately and are adequately prepared. Our country’s winter sport industry is worth nearly £30 million to the economy each year, so hotels and ski resorts also need to have detailed weather forecasts so that they can plan accurately.

In addition, Scotland is home to large shipping, fishing and seafaring communities, who need to be fully briefed on what lies out in the seas to ensure their safety. Those are three of many obvious examples of why weather forecasting makes a huge impact on life in Scotland. It is intrinsically linked to the safety of our people and the prosperity of our economy. People rely on the Met Office.

There are, surely, two key questions that need to be addressed when debating the relationship between the Met Office and the BBC, and the divorce that is taking place. What were the reasons for ending the contract with the Met Office? Will the ending of the contract improve the weather forecasting service for the people of these countries? A BBC spokesperson has stated that during the bid process for the weather forecasting contract, the BBC sought to

“make sure we secure both the best possible service and value for money for the licence fee payer.”

That, of course, is always foremost in any BBC manager’s thought process. Although that is to be expected, can both be prioritised simultaneously or has value for money taken precedence?

There has been some misinformation about the cost of the Met Office to the BBC; reports in the press have stated that the Met Office charges the BBC £30 million a year. In fact, that is the total commercial revenue of the Met Office from a wide range of customers for the whole year. Only a small percentage of that comes from services to the BBC, with presenters being paid at market rate. The Met Office is seen as providing the most accurate predictions for UK weather underpinned by significant research capability and strong infrastructure. It is regarded as a world leader in the field, and provides services in the United Kingdom and around the world.

Many have argued that the BBC’s decision to end its contract with the Met Office has been taken purely for commercial reasons. Dr Grant Allen, an atmospheric physicist at the University of Manchester and a leading expert in the field, has said:

“In my opinion, the BBC’s decision was taken on cost and not on predictive skill. We could get less accurate weather forecasts than before through the BBC, and that is sad news.”

Moreover, the timing of the divorce could not be worse. The Met Office has recently invested £97 million in a supercomputer 13 times more powerful than its previous system, which will increase the accuracy of its forecasting. As part of the new forecasting abilities, the Met Office says that it wants to include the probability of certain weather types. A forecast would give the temperature and a 20% chance of rain, for example—again, vital to my constituents, although our assumption is that there is 100% chance of rain every day for the next year. Such probabilities are available on the Met Office website, and many people are used to using them on smartphone apps. We understand, although this has not been confirmed by the BBC, that the BBC does not want that new service, regardless of how useful it would be to licence fee payers.

If the BBC has opted to end its contract with the Met Office simply to reduce costs and replace it with a service that is not as detailed or accurate, that is worrying and clearly goes against the BBC’s public service broadcasting remit. The BBC is responsible for providing services to inform its audience—services that would not always otherwise be provided where commercial interests are at the fore. Detailed, accurate weather forecasts fall into that category, and attempts to dumb down in order to reduce costs would do a disservice to audiences across the United Kingdom.

On a broader level, the UK has a leading position in the world for atmospheric science, which is the result of sustained institutional support for the science. Questions must be asked about how the end of the BBC contract will affect the Met Office and its ability to deliver. Will investment in the Met Office suffer as a result? Will the change have knock-on effects on the Met Office’s numerous roles outwith the BBC? Will it ultimately affect the future of domestic weather forecasting throughout the country?

The two companies widely reported to be in the final bidding for the contract are a Dutch firm called MeteoGroup and the commercial branch of New Zealand’s meteorological service, MetraWeather. Both must now come under scrutiny. Whichever is selected, we must be assured that it will deliver the high-quality, detailed and accurate weather forecasting required for the BBC and audiences. MeteoGroup is already used by the London Evening Standard and provides services at the Sheringham Shoal offshore wind farm. MetraWeather has attempted to make weather forecasting more interactive during TV bulletins in the Netherlands. Those are, however, small-scale endeavours compared with the scope of the task ahead of them if they are to replace the Met Office working for the BBC.

As Professor Ellie Highwood, joint head of the University of Reading department of meteorology, has said:

“Without any details about the BBC’s new arrangements, it is too early to say how this decision will impact the quality of weather forecasts to the general public”.

She does not welcome the developments. It is now the BBC’s responsibility to award the contract to whichever provider will offer the best weather forecasting service to the public. I strongly hope that it is awarded on the basis of quality of service, rather than as a cost-cutting procedure. At the end of this process, I expect the BBC to show full transparency and detail why the contract with the Met Office was ended and why a new contract was awarded to a different supplier.

In conclusion, I find myself agreeing with the right hon. Member for Exeter (Mr Bradshaw) that the Met Office is part of the family silver. Expelling it from our TV screens seems an unnecessary, destructive step, which has been inadequately explained and unwelcome.

[Chi Onwurah (Newcastle upon Tyne Central) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Streeter. This is the third time in less than 24 hours that the Minister and I have been opposite one another. Yesterday evening he tried to incite me to intervene, although, as the Speaker rightly pointed out, it was against parliamentary procedure—not exactly fair play.

[John Nicolson]

Or cricket.

[Chi Onwurah]

No, it was not cricket. I was obliged to remain silent, but I intend to make up for that today. I congratulate my right hon. Friend the Member for Exeter (Mr Bradshaw) on securing this important debate and on his impressive opening speech. He speaks with experience and authority, as a local MP and a previous Minister.