Oral Answers to Questions

John Lamont Excerpts

Monday 12th October 2026 Commons Chamber

[Sir Stephen Timms]

The hon. Gentleman is absolutely right, and I am pleased to be able to confirm to him that self-employed parents are explicitly covered in the terms of reference of the current review.

[John Lamont (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk) (Con)]

4. What estimate he has made of what the total welfare budget will be at the end of this Parliament.

[The Minister for Social Security and Disability (Sir Stephen Timms)]

In March, the Office for Budget Responsibility published its official forecast, predicting that at the end of the current Parliament, in 2029-30, UK welfare spending will be about £390 billion. The OBR will update that forecast in the Budget, which will take place on Wednesday fortnight.

[John Lamont]

The Minister has just confirmed that the benefits bill will continue to grow. He also seems to have confirmed the Prime Minister’s position that national security

“cannot come at the expense of social security.”—[Official Report, 9 September 2026; Vol. 790, c. 1036.]

Is that correct?

[Sir Stephen Timms]

The hon. Member will be relieved to know that spending on working-age adults’ and children’s welfare is forecast to be 4.9% of GDP at the end of the current Parliament, as it is now. Overall welfare spending is forecast to rise by less than half as much in this Parliament as in the last, by just over 0.3 percentage points by 2030-31 compared with 0.7 percentage points in the last Parliament. This Government are putting right the problems that they inherited.