Office for Budget Responsibility (Manifesto Audits)

John Glen Excerpts

Wednesday 25th June 2014 Commons Chamber

[Clive Efford (Eltham) (Lab)]

I have been listening to the debate and I really do wonder what the Government are afraid of. We are talking about the democratic process. The most important people in this debate are the general public: the people who vote. What can possibly be wrong with making them better informed about the economic policies of the parties that would be in government? Opposition Members hear a lot from the Government about economic policy and the “long-term economic plan”. The Minister mentioned it four times in her speech—she may be reprimanded for not mentioning it enough. That is more than a hint about what is going to be at the heart of the debate at the next general election; we know that the economy is going to feature prominently. We also know that many people find the economic arguments put forward during an election period very complex. Some people like bits from one side and bits from the other side of the argument. They may like the idea of tax cuts but prefer their public services to be kept intact. They may like the idea of a national insurance reduction but they love their national health service. So how do they decide who is telling the truth and whose sums add up?

The Tories have been making outrageous claims about Labour’s spending commitments. We say that they are misleading people, and to prove it we are prepared to put our proposals to an independent audit by the OBR in order to say whether or not the sums add up. That is the simple element of this argument. The crux of it is: are the Government prepared to put their economic policies to an independent audit so that they can be put before the public at an election and the public can be better informed when they make up their minds? The time has come for the major parties, particularly those that might wish to take part in television debates and be taken seriously, to have their proposals independently audited by the OBR.

The OBR scrutinises Government tax policies and expenditure policies on behalf of the public, so why would we not do this for would-be Governments when there is a general election? Surely the public have a right to be as well informed as possible. The chair of the OBR agrees with that. In his letter to the Chair of the Treasury Committee, he said:

“As we have discussed, I believe that independent scrutiny of pre-election policy proposals could contribute to better policy making, to a more informed public debate, and could help facilitate coalition formation when party programmes need to be reconciled.”

So he is clear that considerable benefits would come from going through this process.

I do not think that my right hon. Friend the shadow Chancellor would mislead the House—I know he would not. He has had discussions with the chair—

[John Glen (Salisbury) (Con)]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Clive Efford]

No, I am trying to be disciplined because I have been in here too many times when people have taken loads of interventions and others have not had a chance to speak.

The Government have had plenty of time to have meetings about this issue over a long period of time. We have challenged Ministers about this, asking whether they have discussed it during any meetings. They have said in the past that they are committed to audits, so it is extraordinary that the Government cannot refer to any meeting where they have discussed this issue with the chairman of the OBR. That is an absolute disgrace; this is about having a better informed debate at a general election and they should be ashamed of themselves. Clearly, they have completely ignored this issue because they do not want to go through the process. As for the arguments about specialist skills, the chairman of the OBR is saying that he can deliver on this if we can get an agreement in principle now and if we can start to go through the details by the end of the summer. He is the first person we would go to if we were trying to set this up, so if he is saying—

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Mudie]

I follow my right hon. Friend the shadow Chancellor in not wishing to inflame matters or become party political. We are speaking about an issue that is very important to the general public and a first step to giving Back-Bench Members an input into Budgets, as the Americans, the Dutch and other Parliaments do, whereas we are simply used as voting fodder when a Chancellor presents a Budget. This is a first step and it is an important step.

It is outrageous that we are turning the motion down to protect the OBR. Members should not allow the Government to hide behind the OBR or to besmirch and lessen the reputation of Robert Chote. Robert Chote and his colleagues have carried out extremely important work. Their forecasts are not always right, but they make them sincerely and within the finite probabilities. The OBR is a very important institution. When it was first established, I thought the Chancellor had taken an extremely significant step, though not a big enough one.

Sadly, the Minister and some of my colleagues on the Treasury Committee have taken quotes out of Robert Chote’s letter of January and the minutes of the March meeting of the Treasury Committee. That should not be done. Robert Chote was asked by the distinguished Chairman of the Select Committee:

“Can I begin by asking you, do you in principle support the OBR having a role in the costing of political parties’ manifestos in the run-up to an election?”

Robert Chote replied:

“Yes, I do.”

He went on to say that this route

“does offer the prospect of improving the quality of policy development for individual parties and it potentially improves the quality of public debate in the run-up to an election”.

The Chairman, putting his finger on the real issue, which is time, asked Mr Chote:

“Do you think that you could get this job done between now and the general election?”

Mr Chote replied:

“It would be difficult but by no means impossible”

and he spelled out that the decisions to enable the OBR to do that must be taken by this summer.

[John Glen]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Mr Mudie]

No. I shall finish my point. I have quoted what Mr Chote said, but Back-Bench Members do not necessarily have a full picture of all the details and discussions that have gone on. For the Minister to say to the shadow Chancellor, “I will only believe this if you put it in writing” is quite disgraceful.

Twice, to my knowledge, Robert Chote was asked in the Committee whether he wanted to go ahead with this idea, whether he thinks it would harm his reputation and whether he has time to do it before the election—we have gone through the whole gamut—and the answer on each occasion was yes.

The Minister used the word “insuperable”, which she got from Robert Chote’s January letter, but Mr Chote did not say that the problem was insuperable: he said that the issues that she has spelt out “are certainly not insuperable”. The distinguished Chair of the Treasury Committee lured out of Robert Chote the information that tells us what is going on. He said:

“As you know, Mr Chote, I have been very keen on this idea for 20 years”,

and that was accepted; he has been. He then said:

“Have you…spoken to the Chancellor”

on this, and Robert Chote said that he had, but the Chancellor was not in favour of it for this or that reason. But then—and this goes to the core of why we have a space on the Treasury Bench—the Chair said:

“Given my enthusiasm for this idea, George’s position has been consistent but always unsupportive.”

We are not talking about there being no time to do it this year; the Chancellor of the Exchequer does not want it to happen, full stop. In other words, he does not want the public to go into a general election having the full, objective, independent assessment of all the political parties’ economic policies, and that is a disgrace.

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[Jesse Norman (Hereford and South Herefordshire) (Con)]

I speak in part as a member of the Treasury Committee and as a member of the council of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research and a senior fellow of Policy Exchange.

One of the tragedies of modern politics is that so many issues are no longer discussed soberly and on their merits but are viewed purely through the prism of party politics. The present subject of debate—whether, and if so how, manifesto policies should be costed by the OBR—is one of potentially great importance that could shape political debate across many years and many future Parliaments.

The shadow Chancellor, who is no longer in his place, despite his strictures about the Government Benches, has attempted to politicise this debate and drag Robert Chote’s name into it. Let us simply say that expert opinion on the issue is divided. The Institute for Government has described the pre-election timing as “hasty”, and the IFS has questioned the very idea of the OBR undertaking this role. As I will show, there are several crucial issues of principle as well as practice. They must be addressed before legislation can be considered.

First, there are practical matters of funding and staffing. Let us not forget that the motion states that manifestos should be costed. Manifestos are very long and their policies are often described very briefly and vaguely, so there would be an enormous amount of work. When Mr Chote and others appear before the Treasury Committee, they refer to individual clusters of policy, not whole manifestos.

[John Glen]

Is it not also significant that there is room for great interpretative range? There is a massive number of think-tanks and analysts out there who will all draw different conclusions. The idea that one entity could somehow create a reliable and completely authoritative conclusion about any single manifesto is totally unrealistic.

[Jesse Norman]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right, and I will move on to that point shortly.

The OBR is a new institution. Would it be right to put its recently created reputation at risk by inserting it into the political process in the run-up to an election? The answer is obviously no. These issues need to be calmly and soberly addressed, not patched together late in a Parliament. The proposal would require primary legislation, which will take time and consideration. It should not be rushed into on this timetable. The Institute for Government was perfectly clear that it should not be adopted as a hasty change to the OBR’s remit at this point in the Parliament.

The second question is this: would such a new role compromise the OBR’s key functions? There is an obvious danger that it might. The remit would require careful amendment. Clear rules would be needed on how many policies could be costed, if not a full manifesto, and on which political parties would be eligible. The OBR could not be expected to invigilate in hard cases or act as judge on these issues. It would undoubtedly be attacked by parties that were ineligible to have their policies costed.

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[Mr Robert Syms (Poole) (Con)]

I spent 13 years in opposition in this House, and I sat through several Budget speeches under the Labour Government. They were interesting, to say the least, because it usually took some weeks to find out, having read the small print, what they actually meant. At that time, we were told that boom and bust had been abolished. I very well remember the debate we had when it was revealed that the deficit was £164 billion.

This Government had a very tough economic inheritance. We would not be in coalition if we had not, because normally, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives enjoy fighting each other all the time, but the problems of the country were so damn serious that we had to get together to try to sort them out. That is the legacy of how the last Labour Government managed our economy.

One of the important things in 2010 was credibility. Confidence in the markets was very shaky, and the OBR was part of a range of policies that the Government introduced to add some degree of independence, so that people had more confidence in what the Government were going to do and in the figures and, indeed, so that the City and forecasters could see the direction of British policy. It was a limiting factor, because no longer could the Government adjust the growth factors or the tax take to show a rosier scenario, so that they could cut taxes. They had to live within the framework set by the OBR.

But I do not think the OBR is some kind of magic bullet. All forecasters are, by their nature, wrong. What we have seen throughout the last four years is forecasts from the OBR go up and go down with the economic cycle, and the Opposition, on many occasions, have accused us of having large deficits and putting up the national debt on the basis of OBR forecasts. As the economy is now growing and they are going the other way, no doubt we are praying in aid the OBR that things are getting better and we are getting on top of the problem.

The reality is that the OBR is a small body of public servants who do their best to give some independent credibility to Government policy. If I were to focus additional money or resources, it would be on having a few more people in the OBR rooting around in what our Government are doing, rather than in what the Opposition might do. Even today, when we look at budgets and financial statements, the reality is that there are still a lot of figures about tax avoidance and Swiss agreements to bring in more taxation that ought to be rooted around in by the OBR to see whether or not the Government forecasts are robust, because the OBR is dealing with matters of fact. It is dealing with the Government, with public spending and with how a country is being run.

I do not think that focusing on what the Opposition may or may not do is a terribly good way of spending money. Would it have been a good use of money for civil servants to spend a lot of time looking at what the leadership plans of my right hon. Friend the Member for Richmond (Yorks) (Mr Hague) were for the country? Simply on the basis of the 2001 election, no. Would there have been a lot of benefit in looking at the plans of my right hon. Friend the Member for Chingford and Woodford Green (Mr Duncan Smith) or of Michael Howard? The only time when there might have been some benefit would have been before 2010, when it looked like there would be a change of Government.

[John Glen]

Is the other lesson not that in government, decisions are made as a consequence of actions that are being taken in other parts of the Government and, in fact, the costs of delivering some programmes are very different when those decisions have to be taken? Therefore, any judgment would be somewhat qualified.

[Mr Syms]

Yes, and lots of assumptions would still have to be made. Clearly, my hon. Friend the Member for Chichester (Mr Tyrie), the Chair of the Treasury Committee, made some very good points about ground rules that ought to be discussed in peacetime. If this is an idea worth exploring, it is better to explore it in a relatively more peaceful political time post the 2015 election to see whether it has some merit.

I think that the greater benefit for public debate in this Chamber between the parties is a greater focus on what the Government are doing with their plans. That would give more information to the Opposition and Back Benchers to question and hold the Government to account, rather than focusing on the hypotheticals of what may or may not happen if, indeed, the Government change. Not least, if the focus is on manifestos—they come out in March before an election, at the last possible moment, so that there are nice surprises for the newspapers—how on earth could the OBR look at those and objectively give any kind of costing before the election?

Looking at the future programme, in the autumn, we have the autumn statement and all the spending plans. We are then immediately into the Budget, and just beyond that, we are into a general election. It is bad enough trying to predict what the Government are doing, let alone what the Labour party are trying to do at that time. As I said at the start of my speech, any kind of forecast is bound to be wrong, so the OBR would be wrong about what the Government are doing and wrong about what the Labour party is doing.