Economic Situation

Debate between James Cartlidge and Chris Philp

Wednesday 12th October 2022 Commons Chamber

[Chris Philp]

I thank the hon. Lady for her question. I have already set out how there have been global trends over the past six or nine months, with higher energy prices, higher inflation and a cycle of increasing interest rates around the globe. In particular, I set out how the monetary tightening in the United States, at 300 basis points over the past nine or 10 months, is one and a half times higher than the fiscal tightening in the United Kingdom, which has been 200 basis points over the same period.

In relation to the hon. Lady’s questions about balancing the books over the medium term, the medium-term fiscal plan will set that out. We do intend to control public spending—[Hon. Members: “Ah!”] Well, just listen to the answer—for example, to stick within the spending review 2021 spending limits. I would point out to the House that those SR21 spending limits do see real-terms increases over the three years, but we are going to be sticking with iron discipline to those spending limits, not increasing them, and we will also show spending restraint in the years ahead. However, showing spending restraint is different from real-terms cuts.

[James Cartlidge (South Suffolk) (Con)]

It is very welcome that, a few minutes ago, the Chief Secretary said that the effect of the statement on 31 October will be to show that the Chancellor is 100% committed to fiscal responsibility. That is very welcome to colleagues on all sides, I think, but can he confirm that that means all the previous unfunded tax cuts will now be funded in that statement?

[Chris Philp]

What the statement will set out in the round is how we will get debt as a proportion of GDP falling in the medium term. That is the critical metric, and that is what the medium-term fiscal plan will deliver.

Health and Social Care Levy (Repeal) Bill

Debate between James Cartlidge and Chris Philp

2nd reading
Tuesday 11th October 2022 Commons Chamber

[Chris Philp]

I do not think I should trespass into the realm of my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care and Deputy Prime Minister. She will make her own views and policy on that issue without intervention from me. We are ensuring that the NHS is well funded so that it can provide the treatment our constituents need. Our commitment to NHS funding is undiminished.

Let me turn to the Bill, which repeals the health and social care levy. Members will recall that the health and social care levy was originally announced in September last year, and the Health and Social Care Levy Act 2021 received Royal Assent on 20 October last year. The levy had two phases: first, a temporary 1.25% increase for employers and employees in the current tax year; and then from April 2023 a formal surcharge of 1.25%, which would have affected not just those of working age but also those of state pension age. The Bill repeals that Act with elegant simplicity. Clause 1 states simply:

“The Health and Social Care Levy Act 2021 is repealed.”

[James Cartlidge (South Suffolk) (Con)]

This is my first opportunity to congratulate the Chief Secretary on his appointment. What he said on the energy support for my constituents and all our constituents is very important, and I very much welcome that. However, on repealing the levy, he is of course aware that one of the most important things that it was going to fund was the welcome cap on care costs introduced by the Government, which had been promised by successive Governments with many a White Paper and many a Green Paper. How will we now pay for that?

[Chris Philp]

I thank my hon. Friend for his kind words. We are long-standing colleagues, and I look forward to working with him for many years to come. To be clear, the funding that was to be provided via the levy for both health and social care, which in the case of social care amounted to £5.4 billion over the three-year spending review period, is completely unaltered. There is no change to that funding at all.

My hon. Friend asked about funding for social care. The funding envelope for all public services will be set out by my right hon. Friend the Chancellor on 31 October via his medium-term fiscal plan. We will ensure that we are responsible custodians of the public finances by sticking to the spending plan set out in spending review 2021. We will be disciplined about doing that. We will ensure that we generally exercise spending restraint, mindful of the fact that we cannot have public spending forever increasing at faster and faster rates. We will be disciplined about how we manage the public finances.

I also point to economic growth. If, or rather when, we are successful in delivering the growth plan’s mission to elevate trend growth from 1.5% to 2.5%, with an extra 1% per annum over a consistent period of time—for example, five years—by the fifth year that additional growth will deliver about £47 billion of extra tax revenue, as set out in the table on page 27 of the Blue Book that accompanied the growth plan. I hope that gives my hon. Friend a hint about our thinking, but really the medium-term financial plan on 31 October will provide the most complete answer.

--- Later in debate ---

[Chris Philp]

I am spoilt for choice; I will start with my hon. Friend the Member for South Suffolk (James Cartlidge).

[James Cartlidge]

I am lucky to have a second intervention already. I know that as a former businessman, the Minister cares passionately about growth, and I respect that. However, as a businessman, he must also know that the single most important factor for business is confidence and stability. When we speak to businesses at the moment, we hear that they are worried about the lack of stability. They want certainty and confidence. He needs to explain the basic question about the £17 billion of revenue from the levy to fund social care and the NHS. If the levy is going, surely that implies that borrowing fills the gap or some other change fiscally. Is it the case that that will be confirmed on the 31st?

[Chris Philp]

Yes, it is. My hon. Friend is asking entirely reasonable questions, but we have to look at this issue in the round across the entirety of public expenditure. The Chancellor will set that out in detail on 31 October to the House, accompanied by the OBR scoring.