Office for Budget Responsibility (Manifesto Audits)

Debate between Jacob Rees-Mogg and Andrew Love

Wednesday 25th June 2014 Commons Chamber

[Jacob Rees-Mogg (North East Somerset) (Con)]

The Government are absolutely right to be cautious about allowing the Office for Budgetary Responsibility to be caught in the middle of a political trap. The virtue of the OBR is its political impartiality. It was wonderful to hear the shadow Chancellor—it is always wonderful to hear the shadow Chancellor in his marvellous speeches—explaining how cross-party he was. I looked up a quotation in which he said how terrible it was to brief against fellow MPs. He said that it was snake-like politics in which he would never indulge. That created a wonderful image of him as this purer-than-the-driven-snow gentlemanly creature who would never indulge in underhand party politics and who solely has the national interest at heart. How maligned he must feel when he reads newspapers that sometimes suggest otherwise. It is one of the great tragedies of modern politics that that should be allowed.

Unfortunately, underlying the shadow Chancellor’s speech was sheer party politics. The OBR is there to deal with that which is entirely governmental: that is to say with the Budget, which is passed through a Finance Bill that is a matter of fact, and with an autumn statement that also deals with facts. Against that, we have a series of promises, propositions and theories that do not come out at two clear points of the year, but dribble out, sometimes in draughty halls in obscure parts of the country, as shadow Ministers go off and make spending commitments to meet the latest demand of a newspaper article or a difficult question asked by a journalist. Depending on who we ask, the bankers’ bonus tax has been spent 11 times.

[Mr Love]

Does the hon. Gentleman accept that no one has the good order of the OBR—its credibility and independence—more at heart than the OBR itself, and it is in favour of this proposal? Will he therefore accept that it is Government opposition that is stopping it happening?

[Jacob Rees-Mogg]

That rather proves my point. Once again, we see the OBR immediately being drawn in to political controversy, and I want to free it from that.

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[Jacob Rees-Mogg]

Thank you, Madam Deputy Speaker. Of course I accept the shadow Chancellor’s word without question, but it is a conditional. If there were cross-party support, then a statutory body would do what a statute required of it. That is the simplest expression of the constitutional position that would apply to any statutory body. The idea that a statutory body would say, “If the whole of Parliament tells us to do something, we will blow a raspberry,” is so absurd as to be a point beneath the dignity of the right hon. Gentleman, who is far too clever to make so childish a point.

So let us come back to the real issue, the real curse of asking the OBR to do this. The spending plans of the Opposition are moveable feasts. They vary as circumstances vary. When I challenged the right hon. Gentleman, I thought the first part of his answer may have had some truth in it—that he wanted to be in absolute charge of where his party was. That may be the case, not only for him but for all shadow Chancellors at all times, and not just shadow Chancellors but whoever is responsible for economic policy among the Liberal Democrats, which is even more debatable than who is in charge in the Labour party. I am not entirely sure whether it is the President of the Board of Trade or the Chief Secretary to the Treasury; I am not sure that the Lib Dems have decided, or, if they have decided, whether this has been accepted by the brethren.

A number of people make spending promises. If we ask the OBR to audit them, we make the OBR a matter of political debate because it would be approving expenditure promises that would not necessarily be part of the Budget if the party making them were elected. Are you to say, Madam Deputy Speaker, that only promises made by a shadow Chancellor count? Are you to exclude the leader of the party, who has recently made certain promises to reform the benefit system? Or should you do it on the basis of GP appointments, which the leader has promised will occur within 48 hours? Has this been approved by the shadow Chancellor? Is it official policy or was it the whim of the Leader of the Opposition when he was caught out in a television studio? How are we to know? Are you so to restrict the shadow Work and Pensions Secretary or Education Secretary when they make statements? The shadow Chancellor is nodding. Perhaps this is not the bipartisan approach that we were led to believe in during his marvellous speech but a power grab by the right hon. Gentleman within his own party.

This House of Commons, this noble House, this honourable House, is debating whether the right hon. Member for Morley and Outwood (Ed Balls) should be in charge of the Labour party. This is really a debate about his leadership ambitions. They may be a good thing. Members of the Labour party ought to decide that, better than I possibly could. [Interruption.] I am grateful for the support. I do not know whether I would get many votes if I stood for leader of the Labour party, but never mind.

[Mr Love]

You never know.

[Jacob Rees-Mogg]

I don’t think they are that desperate yet, although the time may come.

The nature of opposition—and it is as true of Conservatives in opposition as it is of socialists—is that the pressure of events means that spending commitments and taxation commitments change. Oppositions are not in command of events, so the proposals that they make cannot be as solid as those enunciated by a Government. That would fatally undermine the position of the OBR because it would be dealing with day-to-day political controversy, and inherent in forecasting is the inaccuracy of forecasting. The OBR is respected more because it is independent than because it is right. Few economists manage to make forecasts more than one year out with any consistent accuracy, so the idea that the OBR were giving an imprimatur or even for that matter a nihil obstat to Opposition policies would create false certainty. It would politicise the OBR and it would have the sole advantage of making the right hon. Gentleman leader of the Labour party.

European Union (Approval of Treaty Amendment Decision) Bill [Lords]

Debate between Jacob Rees-Mogg and Andrew Love

Monday 10th September 2012 Commons Chamber

[Jacob Rees-Mogg]

It is a great pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Caerphilly (Wayne David), who almost made the new clauses sound respectable. In fact, they are some of the most splendidly pointless measures that we have seen in the House; they serve absolutely no purpose.

[Mr Love]

The hon. Gentleman seems to be arguing against scrutiny of the European Union by this institution.

[Jacob Rees-Mogg]

I am all in favour of scrutiny. I am a member of the European Scrutiny Committee, and I am the greatest admirer in the House of my hon. Friend the Member for Stone (Mr Cash), who scrutinises with an eye like a hawk and ensures that every aspect of scrutiny is carried out to the fullest, most proper and deepest effect. However, I thought that the new clause might be an example of the socialist sense of humour, which involves tabling a motion that is completely and utterly meaningless and, indeed, the opposite of what the Bill is all about.

Perhaps the Members concerned did not listen to my right hon. Friend the Minister, who explained—beautifully, elegantly and with charm—what the Bill was all about. He also explained what the treaty was about, namely getting us out of responsibility and liability for the eurozone mess so that we would not have to pay to prop up the eurozone. The new clause proposes that the poor old Chancellor of the Exchequer, who has quite enough to do—for instance, he has a growth strategy to draw up, and his infrastructure Bill will be presented to us next week—must write a report on why a fund of which we are not part, and to which we do not contribute, has had an effect on the propping up the stability of the eurozone, which is a matter for the people—

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[Mr Love]

If we take the hon. Gentleman’s argument to its logical conclusion, we must assume that he is urging all Government Back Benchers not to call for countries that are in the eurozone to leave it.

[Jacob Rees-Mogg]

The hon. Gentleman is confusing two completely different things. One is placing an obligation on Her Majesty’s Government, and the other is expressing an opinion.

I might wish to give advice to the central bank of China. I might wish to say that it was about time that it cut its interest rates—which I think it should—and used its reserve requirements for the banks. It has been putting the rates up, and it is about time that they came down. I think that China needs a monetary boost. But are the Chinese Government listening, and have they the slightest interest in my opinion of their monetary policy? I very much doubt it. [Hon. Members: “Of course!”] Hon. Members flatter me again, but I fear that even the Chinese ambassador, most assiduous gentleman though he is, will not report the opinions of the House of Commons on China’s monetary policy. I fear that even if the Foreign Office, our most esteemed and distinguished Foreign Office, that Rolls-Royce Department—possibly a Rolls-Royce made rather more recently, in the 1970s, with a little bit of engine trouble and a little bit of oil leakage, but none the less with very fine leather inside and looking very nice—sent a message to China saying what its monetary policy should be, the Chinese would not take any notice, and the same applies to the new clause. This is not our business; it is a matter for the eurozone countries. We specifically excluded ourselves, and then the Opposition came up with this wonderful wheeze.

I suppose that that is admirable, in a way. The Opposition have to think something up. As Disraeli said, the job of the Opposition is to oppose. All the finest socialist brains in England were sitting around discussing how to amend a Bill consisting of a handful of clauses saying nothing much except that Her Majesty’s Government would be saved from further liability for the euro. “What shall we do? What bold step of policy shall we take? How shall we strive to convince our electors that there will be a new dawn, the new Jerusalem that the socialists are always looking for? We must ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer for a report that is so hard-hitting, forceful and solid that it constitutes a new policy.”