Draft Social Security (Class 2 National Insurance Contributions Increase of Threshold) Regulations 2022

Ian Murray Excerpts

Tuesday 29th November 2022 General Committees

[The Chair]

Not in scope.

[Ian Murray]

I take your judgment on that, Mrs Cummins.

More specifically, I ask the Minister to refer to the explanatory memorandum to the regulations, in particular, paragraph 12.3 on the impact of the changes. It explains that a

“Tax Information and Impact Note covering the wider NICs threshold changes…was published on 23 March 2022.”

The explanatory memorandum confirms that that impact note

“remains an accurate summary of the impacts that apply to this instrument.”

Can the Minister confirm whether she believes that that statement will remain true if the current Finance Bill passes unamended?

In the tax information and impact note, we see figures reproduced in the section on “Exchequer impact” from the spring statement 2022. Those figures show the cost to the Exchequer of the increase of the primary threshold and lower profits limit from July 2022, and the removal of class 2 NICs liabilities between the small profits threshold and lower profits limit from April 2022. The figures in the information note are set out from 2021-22 to 2026-27, and presumably they make certain assumptions about the level of the personal allowance. I would be grateful if the Minister could therefore confirm whether, if the Government are successful in freezing the personal allowance through to 2027-28 in the Finance Bill, the figures for 2026-27 would change? I would be grateful if the Minister could confirm whether she therefore expects the cost to Government in that year to reduce, which would represent a relative tax rise on working people.