Energy Trilemma

Ian Blackford Excerpts

Thursday 23rd March 2023 Commons Chamber

[Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) (SNP)]

It is a considerable privilege to follow the right hon. Member for South Northamptonshire (Dame Andrea Leadsom), and I thank her for securing this vital debate for all of us.

This has been an important week because we have had the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which bluntly gives what is essentially a final warning to humanity. The report lays bare what is already happening because of the damage that we are collectively doing to our planet as a direct result of the energy choices we have made for the last century. Extreme weather caused by climate breakdown has led to increased deaths from intensifying heatwaves in all regions, millions of lives and homes destroyed in droughts and floods, millions of people facing hunger and “increasingly irreversible losses” in vital ecosystems. That is the damage that has already been done, and if we continue down this path, the final consequences will not simply be about deepening that damage. It is much more fundamental; it is about whether we can continue to live and survive on this planet. That is the harsh reality of where we are, and that is why this debate is so vital.

In the years to come, energy is everything. It is quite literally the be-all and end-all, because the types of energy we use will determine whether we meet the challenge of climate change, and it will determine whether humanity can live on this planet for the foreseeable future. Unless we move immediately to a completely new system of energy production, we will have neither security nor prosperity. We often talk in this House about the scale of the challenges we have faced since the financial crisis in 2008: how to deliver sustainable economic growth, drive investment in our economy, drive prosperity and drive up living standards. The enormous opportunities that we have in green energy would enable us to kick-start that, to answer the questions on the supply chain that the right hon. Member for South Northamptonshire raised and to ensure we have the skills, so that we can lead the way in not only providing energy for ourselves but exporting green energy, just as we did with the oil and gas revolution in the 1970s. We have to rise to that challenge, and we have to rise to it here and now.

The terrible truth is that the UK is being left behind when it comes to green energy and green growth. The US and the EU are powering ahead, and we need to make sure that we are not playing catch-up in the United Kingdom. The Inflation Reduction Act passed in August 2022 makes a remarkable $369 billion available to climate and clean energy programmes in the US—just think of the scale of the opportunity that comes from that ambition. Where is our ambition to match that? President Biden’s programme is a real levelling-up agenda, making green energy the economic catalyst to restore and renew the industrial heartlands of the US. Likewise, the European Union is powering ahead. It is debating the passing of the green deal industrial plan, with which it wants to grow clean energy production, revitalise manufacturing and support well-paid jobs.

If I may, I will just look narrowly at Scotland for a minute or two, because I know the figures there better than the figures elsewhere. Last year, the SNP Westminster group commissioned what has been called the Skilling report—“The Economic Opportunity for Scotland from Renewable Energy and Green Technology”—which I know some colleagues in the House have read. There is no fantasy in that report, because we are just reflecting on what we already know.

When the report was published, Scotland was producing 12 GW of green energy. It is now producing about 13 GW, but the report highlights the potential to increase that figure to 80 GW by 2050: a fivefold increase over the course of that period, generating as much as four times the green energy that Scotland needs. That represents the opportunity to keep the lights on—a phrase that was referred to earlier—right across the United Kingdom, and ultimately to produce hydrogen on a scalable basis and export to other parts of the European Union as well. We need to take advantage of the natural opportunity that we have in green energy, making sure that we are at the cutting edge of that. According to Skilling, the transition from fossil fuels will ultimately deliver more jobs than we currently have in oil and gas—over 300,000 jobs by 2050.

The right hon. Member for South Northamptonshire talked about the planning regime and the skilled jobs that we need to develop in order to make this happen, but there needs to be a sense of urgency in doing all of those things, or we will miss that opportunity. There is an enormous challenge, if I may say so, in making sure that we have the jobs in turbine manufacturing and providing cabling. We will achieve that only if we have the visibility of the orders coming in that will encourage people to invest here from across the United Kingdom, and indeed, to come and invest from elsewhere.

[David Duguid (Banff and Buchan) (Con)]

Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?

[Ian Blackford]

I will happily give way.

[David Duguid]

I am genuinely grateful to the right hon. Gentleman for giving way, and I agree with pretty much everything he has said so far, which is unusual. I am sure he is familiar with the report by Professor de Leeuw at Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen, which assessed that at least 90% of the skills required for the net zero future already exist in the oil and gas industry. We should make the most of those skills while we can.

[Ian Blackford]

Actually, I agree with those comments from the professor and from the hon. Gentleman. When I have been in Aberdeen and been out looking at some of the offshore technology there, it has struck me that there is that transferability—if I may call it that—of skills from the oil and gas sector. Of course, we need to make that happen.

But what I would say is that, if Skilling is right—and I believe he is—the scale of the opportunity goes way beyond the jobs that we currently have in oil and gas. We need to make sure that we have the research and development and the innovation right across the supply chain, and that we are utilising not just our higher education sector, but the further education sector to deliver people with the appropriate skills to do this. That is an enormous opportunity. Out of that, there is an enormous opportunity to make sure that we have an industrial strategy that is fit for purpose as well. I would be delighted if we had these kinds of debates more often in this House—if we were actually having detailed discussions about how we do all this. What do we have to do to make the planning system work in a way that is respectful to local communities, but recognises the need and desire to move ahead?

[Mr Carmichael]

On the subject of planning and the delays that are associated with it, I have no doubt that the right hon. Gentleman is aware that, in Canada, the time from consent to installation for a tidal device is around three years, whereas in this country, it is seven or eight. It comes down to something as simple as the fact that we do all the different impact assessments and the rest of it sequentially, when with a bit of imagination and creativity, they could all be done side by side.

[Ian Blackford]

I agree. The right hon. Member has made an important point. Often, the question is: how do we make sure we are protecting the rights of stakeholders and the rights of communities, while being able to do things at pace? What we have been talking about highlights the potential loss of technological leadership, because if we cannot do these things, we will not get that investment. In that context, let me go to the side a little, because I want to talk about one of the subsets of the green industry that has enormous potential for us.

We heard a comment earlier about nuclear and the opportunity to provide baseload. I have mentioned this in the House on a number of occasions, and I do not apologise for doing so again: there is enormous opportunity in tidal, and that has been demonstrated with the success we have seen with a number of projects. I encourage everyone in the House to examine a peer-reviewed Royal Society report published just ahead of COP26. It highlighted the opportunity of developing 11.5 GW of energy from tidal. If we look at the projects already developed in the United Kingdom, we tend to find that as much as 80% of that supply chain has been generated domestically. A number of the companies doing that are supplying equipment to such countries as France and Canada, as has been mentioned. There is a real danger that unless we recognise the scale of the opportunity, we will lose that leadership.

I am delighted that in the last contracts for difference round, the UK Government put in place a ringfenced pot of £20 million for tidal. That got us off to a degree of a start in fulfilling that ambition laid out in the Royal Society report. It was not as much as I would have liked. For us to fulfil that potential, we need to provide as much as £50 million annually, but I regret that over the past few days we have seen that that ringfenced pot will be cut to £10 million. I say to the House that we run the risk of losing this industry, and I appeal to the Government to revisit this issue. We can provide that baseload from tidal, as an alternative to nuclear energy. If we are ambitious about getting to that kind of scale in tidal, ultimately we will be providing that baseload on a more affordable basis.

[David Duguid]

I do not want to interrupt the right hon. Gentleman’s flow, and we can all agree that we wish there was more money available for different things, but he might not be aware that the £20 million that was initially ringfenced was for a two-year period. It has since been changed to a one-year or annual allocation. The £10 million for one year is essentially equivalent to £20 million for two years.

--- Later in debate ---

[Ian Blackford]

When the announcement was made, it was on the basis that it would be £20 million pot. [Interruption.] I have spoken to many of the operators over the course of the last while, and they do not share the hon. Gentleman’s view. But let us try to find consensus where we can and see the opportunity in all this, because that is key to this matter.

[Sir Paul Beresford]

The right hon. Gentleman said that tidal would be an alternative to nuclear, but it should be in addition to nuclear. The demand that is coming and the demand if we move into hydrogen will be massive—beyond anything we can imagine.

[Ian Blackford]

I have talked about the Skilling report and the ability to get to 80 GW. There is the opportunity with tidal to provide the baseload. I argue on that basis that we probably do not need the investment in nuclear to get to where we need to get. One thing I referenced was that I did not believe there is any fantasy in the numbers we have from Skilling. They are eminently achievable on the roadmap that we talk about.

Let us look at some of the choices and where the money has to come from, and put that in the context of the debate we are having over the trilemma and the choices that many people are having to make because of the cost of energy. We know that a number of producers have made eye-watering profits as a consequence of high energy prices over the past year. This Government have rightly introduced a windfall tax. If we had wanted, we could have hypothecated some of that to make sure we were speeding up investment in renewables. We could have provided the £50 million that I am asking for on an annual basis so that we could fulfil that potential in tidal.

One aspect of the events of the past 12 months has been the enormous increase in share buy-backs from energy producers. In essence, what are share buy-backs? They are in effect a return of capital to shareholders. We have taxed the profits of the generators to some extent, but we have not taxed the return of cash to shareholders—windfall gains. On a one-off basis, we could have taxed share buy-backs in the same way that we tax dividends, and provided the ability to generate the investment that we need in our energy transition. That would have been the sensible thing to do.

Let me come back to the European Union, because there is already an €800 billion NextGenerationEU post-coronavirus pandemic recovery scheme. EU member states must reserve 37% of their spending for that green transition. About €100 billion of the EU’s 2021 to 2027 cohesion fund, which is dedicated to regional development, goes to green spending. Horizon Europe, the EU science and innovation programme, allocates €40 billion to green deal research and innovation, and industry partnerships. The investment I am asking for and that I believe we need in tidal has to be seen in the context of the scale of that investment.

On a subject that many of us discuss, carbon capture and storage, the EU has commenced its third round before the UK has come close to completing its second. We are all aware of the promises that have been made about carbon capture and storage in the north-east of Scotland. There are Members in this Chamber who are as passionate as I am about making sure it happens, and let us remember why. If we are serious about getting to our net zero targets—whether 2045 in Scotland or 2050 in this place—then carbon capture and storage has to happen.

We have failed to back carbon capture and storage, and the harsh reality is that the renewable energy budget has been cut by a third and there has been the cut to the ringfenced budget for tidal stream. We need to make sure that we create competitive advantages out of the bounty that we know is there. Let us come back again to the green industrial strategy, because if we are able to develop our green energy sources to the extent that I believe we can, we need to make sure there is a competitive advantage for our industries and the industries of the future.

We also need to make sure that our communities benefit from the investment that is taking place. To take my own home island of Skye, an enormous increase in investment is coming down the line over the next few years in wind generation. We will be producing many times the amount of energy that the island of Skye can absorb by itself, yet there is an additional cost to access the network from producing in such remote and rural areas. There is a double whammy: because of the nature of the regional distribution market, we pay the highest prices to get the electricity back again. It simply is not good enough, and the communities making legitimate sacrifices in producing that energy have to be compensated effectively.

While we are talking about onshore, offshore and tidal, we should not forget the opportunities we have with pumped hydro storage. I delighted that, this week, SSE has announced a £100 million investment in the biggest pumped hydro storage scheme in the United Kingdom for 40 years. The Coire Glas scheme will power over 3 million homes, more than doubling the United Kingdom’s electricity storage capacity. Again, it is demonstration of what can be done in providing the baseload that is so necessary.

We need to pose the question why—in what is, for Scotland and arguably for the UK, an energy-rich country—people are facing the kind of costs that they have done over the last year. The average household bill in Shetland, if I may refer to that, in October 2022 was £5,578, more than double the UK average of £2,500, according to evidence submitted to the House of Commons Scottish Affairs Committee by Shetland Islands Council. The latest available figures show that a third—33%—of households in remote and rural areas in Scotland are in extreme fuel poverty. That statistic has not been updated since 2019 due to covid, and therefore does not reflect the current cost of living crisis. There will have been a massive increase in the percentage of our households that are not just in fuel poverty, but in extreme fuel poverty.

The only place where the UK Government seem to be increasing investment is in nuclear energy, which is far more expensive than the renewable alternatives. The Institute for Public Policy Research said:

“If the Government are serious about reaping the benefits of the transition and levelling up, it should learn from Joe Biden, scale up public investment, and bring forward a serious strategy to build an economy that is prosperous, fair and green.”

The CBI said:

“The UK is falling behind rapidly—to the Americans and the Europeans, who are outspending and outsmarting us.”

The world faces an energy trilemma, but the UK faces a simple binary choice: will it continue to be left behind, or will we collectively work in humanity’s self-interest to tackle climate change and embrace the opportunity for green growth?

[Mr Deputy Speaker (Sir Roger Gale)]

I call David Duguid.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Carmichael]

Absolutely. We make progress on these things incrementally, so if we can get to that situation that would be music to my heart and to the hearts of my constituents.

In Orkney, we already generate more energy from renewables than we can use in our own community. However, as the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford) observed earlier, because of the way in which the market is regulated and structured, we actually pay more for it. That is something that generates not just energy, but an enormous amount of resentment in the community as well.

[Ian Blackford]

I congratulate the right hon. Gentleman on the progress he is making. There is a real issue about the disbursement of these funds because they are becoming particularly meaningful; it is a hot topic at the moment in Skye. We need to reflect on the powers that often lie with developers to make the determination as to how that pot is disbursed. We will have to be very careful across Government, here in Westminster and in the devolved Administrations, about setting the principles that have to be followed. If not, we will end up in a situation in which communities will, quite frankly, not get the benefit to extent that they should. We need to have effective governance in all of this to make sure that people are protected properly.

[Mr Carmichael]

The right hon. Gentleman is absolutely right. With a commitment to the principle from the top, everything underneath tends to fall into place.

There is another aspect of community benefits in which we may have missed a trick in Scotland recently. Although we missed out on a sovereign wealth fund, apart from in Orkney and Shetland, in the 1970s, there would have been an opportunity to generate more of a sovereign wealth fund from offshore renewables in the ScotWind round. We missed the boat this time, but I hope we can make up for it in future.

In many ways, Orkney and Shetland demonstrates the energy transition issues and the trilemma in microcosm: we have long, dark, cold winters, we have poor-quality housing stock and we are off the mains gas grid, so we do not have the same opportunities for access to cheaper heating as other parts of the country. The affordability element therefore very much matters to us. We generate more electricity from renewables than we can use for ourselves, but because of how the market was regulated until recently, when we finally got consent for a cable to the Scottish mainland, we have not been able to maximise the benefits. It is galling that although we are leading the way in decarbonised energy production, we end up paying more because we are part of a market that is regulated for the UK as a whole and that relies too heavily on the wholesale price of gas, as we are now seeing.

Let me just vent parenthetically for a second or two about the energy company SSE and its occasional choice simply to stop paying people who are entitled to feed-in tariff payments. I always seem to have at least one such case on the go among my constituency casework. Just last week, I was able to secure eventual, long-overdue repayment from SSE of £72,000 to one farmer in my constituency. That was money that SSE owed him and there was absolutely no reason for it not to pay, but for arbitrary and unaccountable reasons it seems occasionally just to decide to stop paying people. To my mind, that is an abuse of the privilege that it has been given by successive Governments.

Orkney is home to the European Marine Energy Centre, which is just about to celebrate its 20th anniversary. It has been at the forefront of the development of tidal stream energy generation; no doubt it could now play a similar role in the development of floating offshore wind.

Like other hon. Members, I was delighted to see the ringfenced pot in the round 4 allocation, but I share the concerns of the right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber. That is not just me speaking; the UK Marine Energy Council, RenewableUK and Scottish Renewables have all reacted badly, so I hope that the Department is already thinking about how to maximise the opportunities by getting some of the money back.

With the synergy between oil and gas, we have been at the forefront of the country’s energy needs for 40 years now, and the development of offshore renewables is the obvious next step. When I speak to apprentices, as I did during National Apprenticeship Week last month, they tell me that although they are starting apprenticeships in the oil and gas industry, they fully expect to have transitioned to something different by the end of their working lives.

For the past 40 years, my constituency has been home to the two largest oil terminals in western Europe: Flotta in Orkney and Sullom Voe in Shetland, which provide a visual demonstration of the just transition. EnQuest, the terminal operator at Sullom Voe, is now working on projects involving hydrogen, carbon capture, use and storage, and offshore electrification of production. It is a visual illustration of transition, but again it shows just how ill served we are by binary choices. All the time, we seem to be told, “You can have renewables or you can have hydrocarbons, but you can’t have both.” That is dangerous nonsense. We have allowed production of oil and gas on the UK continental shelf to decline in recent years, and it has been to our detriment. It was never put in these terms at the time, but I cannot think why anyone ever thought it would be a good idea to rely on Vladimir Putin for the purchase of our gas and Mohammed bin Salman for the production of our oil when we have a rich resource on our own doorstep. As we heard from the hon. Member for Banff and Buchan (David Duguid), the production of oil and gas in the North sea or to the west of Shetland is much less carbon-intensive than importing it from other parts of the world.

The point, surely, is this: it is not an either/or. There is no route to decarbonisation and achieving net zero other than one that goes through oil and gas production. I do not want to see the future generations of my constituents working in oil and gas. I do want to see them work in renewables, but I think that that will be much more likely if we take a long, hard, clear-eyed look at what happens in the future with oil and gas production on our own continental shelf.

There are many other things that we should be doing, such as managing supply and demand and increasing the amount of storage and smart grid—something that offers great opportunities for those who can turn on their washing machines at the other end of the country using their smartphones, although I suspect that it would be a bit more challenging for the members of the community who would benefit most from opportunities of that kind.

The right hon. Member for South Northamptonshire has done us a great service in initiating this timely debate. I hope that its strategic aspects have been heard and understood on the Treasury Bench, and will be acted on.