The Economy

Gregory Campbell Excerpts

Wednesday 26th November 2014 Commons Chamber

[Sammy Wilson (East Antrim) (DUP)]

May I welcome some of the news from the Minister today? The statistics show that there has indeed been an improvement in the economy. It is in the interests of none of our constituents to have an economy that is doing badly simply so that we can score political points. The fact that growth is higher than in the rest of the G7, unemployment has fallen, employment is up and productivity is up, which therefore helps competiveness, is good news and should be welcomed. I have no difficulty welcoming it.

The point of the motion, however, is that that news is not sufficient for smugness or complacency; for a simple acceptance that the plan is working, and that therefore we do not need to do anything more or make any improvements; or for somehow or other rubbishing suggestions just because they come from Opposition Members. The Minister and other Government Members who have spoken should look at some of the statistics.

I do not want to do the economy down. I have seen it happen in Northern Ireland, but people who do that simply talk themselves into a recession anyway, because if confidence goes down, businesses do not want to invest and consumers do not want to spend. Nevertheless, if there are warning signs, we ought to recognise them.

Despite what the Opposition have said, growth over the past few years has been predicated on Government spending. When we look at the figures for the composition of GDP, we see that the biggest increase has been in Government consumption. That is now shifting to consumer consumption, but the figures again show that that is predicated on increased consumer borrowing. Especially when wages are being squeezed in the economy, we ought to be worried about that. It will of course increase household debt, and if consumer spending is carrying economic growth, we should be worried. The Government have made much of wanting export-led growth. Again, the figures for this year show that exports are under pressure: they are not growing where they were growing in the past. There are therefore some warning signs.

Another warning sign is inequality. As has been highlighted, even those in work do not feel any better off. Rather than Government Members saying that it is good to have people in work, they ought to be concerned that even the benefits of their policy are not felt universally, and they ought to accept that something needs to be done about that.

[Mr Gregory Campbell (East Londonderry) (DUP)]

On that issue, does my hon. Friend agree that the nation of the United Kingdom as a whole should prosper, and that wealth needs to increase—with greater inward investment and greater support for small and medium-sized enterprises—right across the regions of the United Kingdom, rather than disproportionately in the south-east of England?

[Sammy Wilson]

Of course, one of the other inequalities is inequality between the regions. The economy in Northern Ireland has done better in this recession than we expected—we are increasing inward investment through some of the Executive’s micro-economic policies—but there are regional inequalities, as well as inequalities between economic sectors and individuals.

For that reason, we need to look at two issues in the motion. The first is that as the economy grows and the percentage of GDP that is attributed to profits rises, there is no reason why—through increasing the minimum wage or, indeed, through greater application of the living wage—we cannot start some degree of redistribution from those who hold capital to the work force. That would not be a bad thing; indeed, it would be good for the Government finances, because it would of course release an awful lot of the spending on tax credits. In a growing economy, we can afford to do that. It is not only those of us on the Opposition Benches who espouse that policy: the Mayor of London has been an advocate of it. He has argued that it is a Tory policy, and that it should not be captured by the Opposition. We need to look at doing that. Not only would it release some of the Government spending on tax credits, but it has been shown that it tends to increase productivity and leads to a lower turnover of staff, saving expense for employers.

The second issue is borrowing. I understand that we cannot simply borrow, borrow, borrow. However, as I have indicated, the Government are happy for some of the growth in GDP to be carried by household borrowing. Of course, businesses borrow for capital expenditure. Borrowing can provide a return and perform a social function. The motion highlights expenditure for a house building programme. That would have a big multiplier effect on the economy—a multiplier effect that would probably be greater than that of borrowing to pay for people to be on the dole. It therefore makes absolute sense.

Government Members are presenting the motion as one that simply says, “Oh, let’s borrow more money regardless,” rather than one that says, “Let’s borrow money to use where it will actually help the infrastructure of the economy; where it will provide a return; where it will pay for itself over a period of time; where it will deal with a social problem; and where it will perhaps increase the mobility of labour because, of course, more housing enables that to happen across the country.” That, to me, is a sensible policy.

For that reason, I am disappointed that the motion, or at least the ideas in the motion, has not been accepted. If there are warning signs that growth may falter, here are ways in which we can put money into the hands of those who spend most of their income—that is, the low paid—and into capital investments that will have a return, which may, in turn, have an effect on economic growth. For that reason, I will support the motion this evening.