Amendment of the Law

Geraint Davies Excerpts

Wednesday 21st March 2012 Commons Chamber

[Gavin Williamson]

I will happily talk about what happened under the previous Conservative Government, although it is going a little way back. Between 1992 and 1997, exports from the manufacturing base in this country grew and gross value added grew, because we created an environment in which manufacturers could grow. That did not happen under the last Labour Government, when jobs and businesses were destroyed. The Chancellor is committed to reversing that. I can give many examples of businesses that failed under the Labour Administration. This Government are committed to helping businesses grow, which is to be welcomed.

[Geraint Davies (Swansea West) (Lab/Co-op)]

The hon. Gentleman is being gracious in giving way. I should say that my background is in multi-national companies and in starting my own businesses successfully. Does he accept that after his Government came to office, the growth forecasts reduced massively between the first and the second year? According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the size of the economy will be down by £50 billion a year for ever because of his Government’s policies.

[Gavin Williamson]

I thank the hon. Gentleman for making those comments. It is fascinating that the International Monetary Fund has predicted that Britain will grow faster than Germany and France. It is true that the eurozone has had a negative impact on this country, but people see us as a country that is well run, with a Chancellor who is committed to making business growth happen. That is why we will grow faster than Germany and France. I am sure that the hon. Gentleman will welcome that.

I will move on briefly to families. It is often said that raising the personal allowance is a Liberal Democrat idea. Members will be shocked to hear that the matter was raised with me many times during the general election campaign. I told people that if I was elected as their Member of Parliament, I would do all that I could to ensure that personal allowances increased so that the lowest-paid—

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[Geraint Davies (Swansea West) (Lab/Co-op)]

Unemployment is at a 17-year high, more people than ever are being forced into part-time work, there are cuts in tax credits to the low-paid, 170,000 children will be forced into poverty in the coming year, growth is down, the deficit is up, 700,000 public sector workers are being sacked, services are being slashed and the Office for Budget Responsibility says that the Budget measures will have no impact on growth forecasts. What better time to reduce the 50p tax rate to 45p? There are 4,000 people in Wales who pay the 50p tax rate compared with 94,000 in London. Again, then, we have a Budget where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. There are hidden measures, too, such as the £3 billion being taken from pensioners in their allowances and family tax credits going down for the poorest.

Of course, we need growth to clear the deficit. Labour had a good record on growth—1997 to 2008 saw record post-war growth levels. Then we had the financial tsunami, and obviously the current Government inherited a deficit, but two thirds of it was due to the bankers and a third due to the Labour Government spending and investing above its earnings. That was the right thing to do to sustain growth and not fall into a depression. The Conservatives arrived and immediately focused not on growth but on cuts and announced 500,000 job cuts in the public sector—and Bob’s your uncle, people stopped spending money, consumption fell, growth flatlined and the deficit rose by £150 billion. That is complete incompetence.

The Tory plan is to shrink the public sector, to squeeze the poorest and to move too far, too fast. Owing to these changes, the OBR has made a one-off change in its predictions of £50 billion—3.5% to 4%, as mentioned earlier, of the whole economy. The focus is 20% on tax and 80% on cuts. Perhaps that is the wrong balance for managing the budget. The focus is on getting rid of the budget deficit in four years instead of halving it in four years. Perhaps that is the wrong focus. Furthermore, the cuts themselves are not targeted fairly.

Most recently, we have heard about regional pay. In Swansea, 40% of workers are in the public sector, and 60% of them are women. Already many people are facing job cuts—part of the 700,000 job cuts. They already face zero pay increases for two years, followed by 1% increases for two years, and with inflation at about 5%, that is nearly a 20% real-terms cut in their pay. The last thing they want to hear is that there will be further cuts to regional pay. We need to stimulate private sector investment through, for example, investment in electrification of the railway to Swansea. Wales’s share of High Speed 2 would be £1.9 billion, but instead Wales can look forward to a Trojan horse of cuts to the Welsh Assembly Government, as this idea of regional pay is geared towards health, education and the like. There is a real danger that a general practitioner in Swansea will say, “Hold on, I want to live in Bristol.” There is a concern about the migration of quality workers.

My father—and, indeed, the father of the hon. Member for Worcester (Mr Walker)—was involved in the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency and the Mint moving to Wales. These are important resource that help to support the Welsh economy, but now there is a move to reduce that by cutting people’s wages.

What should we do? My view is that a temporary, targeted fiscal stimulus in the autumn, on VAT, national insurance and investment in infrastructure—such a stimulus has been commended by the Institute for Fiscal Studies—would be a sensible idea. In the case of Swansea, if VAT was reduced for one year to 17.5%, it would mean £450 per household. There are about 103,000 households in Swansea, so that makes £46 million in the local economy. That equates to about 3,000 jobs at £15,000 a job. That would have a big impact on confidence, on getting consumer demand going and on getting growth on to a better trajectory.

Similarly, reducing VAT on home improvements would stimulate private sector building, which is important because at the moment it is on its knees; and of course we need to invest in a range of infrastructure projects to support the economy for the future. I have already mentioned rail but investing in our ports, again in Swansea, is also important.

I, too, support doing more to get what we can out of emerging markets and hooking up small businesses in this country to those markets. In Britain we have one of the biggest digital economies in the world—£120 billion—and we have an opportunity for growth in that economy. I support some of the focus on entrepreneurial support, in terms of loans and skills. The problem is that people are now coming out of university with excessive debt.