Charter for Budget Responsibility

Debate between George Kerevan and John McDonnell

Tuesday 24th January 2017 Commons Chamber

[George Kerevan]

I am suitably chided, Mr Speaker. I cast no aspersions on the character of any individual on the Government Benches. As a collective, however, they have changed the rules to suit themselves, as the Chancellor has admitted. That is the basic point I am trying to get across. What possible faith can we have in this new set of rules that they will not be changed in another 15 months?

[John McDonnell]

I do not want to interfere in private banter, but I draw the hon. Gentleman’s attention to the fact that, in 2009, the person who is now Chancellor—he was then shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury—condemned any concept of rules. In the rule that he eventually helped to develop in opposition, and that eventually came into force, there was a welfare cap that has now been completely disregarded. The deficit was meant to be not reduced but eliminated by 2015, with a reduction in debt. The rules seem to have gone out the window very early for this Chancellor.

[George Kerevan]

I agree with the right hon. Gentleman.

The Chancellor came to the Treasury Committee, and he answered questions clearly and in great detail. He pressed the point he has made today, that the new fiscal rules and the autumn statement were designed to give the Government enough fiscal headroom to meet any unforeseeable circumstances, should economic growth slow as a result of the Brexit decision. I respect that, but why give himself headroom for a future dangerous event? Why not take action now to forestall that event? In essence, the fiscal charter gives the Chancellor room, if the economy begins to slow in two, three or four years’ time, to use a fiscal surplus to invest in the economy and crank up growth. Why not do that now? The new fiscal charter gives the dangerous impression that somehow it will prevent the ill effects of Brexit because the Chancellor can intervene if something goes wrong. Why not use that fiscal headroom now?

The problem, of course, is that the underlying strength of the economy is nowhere near as strong as the Chancellor tried to make out in his introduction. Yes, there is growth but, the underpinnings of that growth over the last year are largely an expansion of consumer spending underpinned by unsecured consumer borrowing.

At the same time, post the Brexit vote, the pound has fallen substantially on international markets, which is stoking up inflation. I cannot imagine a more dangerous situation than for growth to be dependent on unsecured consumer borrowing when inflation is starting to rise.

UK Economy

Debate between George Kerevan and John McDonnell

Wednesday 29th June 2016 Commons Chamber

[John McDonnell]

I remember the Chancellor promising that the deficit would have been eradicated last year. Although we welcome the jobs that the hon. Gentleman mentions, many of them are, unfortunately, insecure and poorly paid. However, we welcomed and supported the capital requirements relating to banks. I hope that the Conservatives can accept that balanced assessment.

At the centre of the OBR’s pessimistic assessment was the stagnation of UK productivity. According to the latest available data, between 2007 and 2014—Members on both sides of the House have raised this point—productivity did not grow. That is the worst performance by any G7 economy, and it means that today, on average, every hour worked in the UK is a third less productive than in the United States, Germany or France. This productivity stagnation has happened on the present Chancellor’s watch. It is clear that his long-term economic strategy has failed, as he has not secured the basis for long-term growth. Can we at least agree that from now on that we need a comprehensive strategy to deal with the productivity crisis?

Over the past few years, growth has relied too much on two things. First, although the economy has produced a large number of jobs, they have been poorly paid and insecure. Secondly, growth is unfortunately becoming more and more dependent on a return to household borrowing. We have not yet hit the level of 2008, but the OBR forecasts an unprecedented five years of continual household deficits.

Alongside our deficit with the rest of the world, our current account deficit has widened to its highest level since the 18th century. At 7% of gross domestic product, it is the largest current account deficit in any major developed economy. To finance the gap, borrowing from the rest of the world and the sale of UK assets have reached record levels, alongside assets sales to the rest of the world involving a range of facilities, to some of which there have been significant objections in the House. Relative to GDP, the UK now has a larger overseas debt than any other major developed country. We have been able to finance the current account deficit, despite weak productivity growth, because of what Mark Carney described, in a recent lecture, as “the kindness of strangers”.

[George Kerevan (East Lothian) (SNP)]

Does the shadow Chancellor agree that the current account deficit is essentially being funded by foreign direct investment, which includes the purchase of assets in this country by Chinese organisations? How does that relate to Britain taking back control?

[John McDonnell]

Labour has consistently presented arguments in the House about the asset sales that have taken place. In the past, they have been described as selling the family silver, but in recent years we have been selling the floorboards and the fabric of the building itself.

Investors in the rest of the world have been willing to overlook some of the fundamentals of our economy in the belief that the country is politically stable, and has secure banks and a booming property market. Overseas investors have been willing to buy assets and lend money on a grand scale as a result. Owing to the leave vote, however, that “kindness of strangers” is now in short supply. Given the uncertainty over the UK’s relationship with the rest of the world, the confidence of international investors in its position has been undermined.