(5 days, 13 hours ago)
Commons ChamberIf the hon. Gentleman reads to the end of the IFS report, he will see that it costs our proposal in single-digit billions, and we have explained exactly how we will pay for it—I will come to that in a moment—so there is no gaping hole whatsoever. No wonder so many despair, with more broken promises from the Government and ever-rising debt, and no promise of action at any particular time.
How we would pay for our proposal—this goes to the hon. Gentleman’s question—is equally important. Since the last Government created the longitudinal education outcomes dataset, we have had much better data on which degrees do—or do not—provide economic value for students and taxpayers. Economic value is not the only value put on higher education, or any kind of education, but rather than simply pushing more young people towards courses that the Government’s own data show us do not benefit them—they do not help them, and they leave them feeling like they have been mis-sold and betrayed, with a lot of debt and nothing much to show for it—we need to have a rethink. The current approach is not working.
Since the election, youth unemployment has risen to levels significantly above the eurozone’s for the first time in a generation. That is mainly as a result of the Government’s decision to target lower-paid people for tax increases and to increase regulation, but it is not helped by the Government’s unbalanced approach to skills, based on an endless expansion of university courses whether they are any good or not.
Just one moment.
Analysis by the IFS found that total returns on going to university will be negative for about 30% of both men and women—and that is based on the cohort from the noughties. The problem now is probably even bigger because the graduate premium has declined further. As a result, many graduates now earn so little that they will never fully repay their student loans, leaving the taxpayer to cover about £8 billion in losses every year. That is why we would restore the number controls that existed for 70 years and use that to reduce the number of people who are on courses that are not good value for the taxpayer and not helping the young people, either.
To listen to Labour Members, anyone would think that there was not a single bad course, that every single course is totally brilliant and that there is no prospect of ever reducing spending on any single course. That is a fantasy world. We do not say about any other type of public service that every single instance of it is completely brilliant and there is no scope for improvement. We would use the savings from our proposal not just to abolish real interest rates on plan 2 loans but to double the number of apprenticeships for 18 to 21-year-olds so that quality apprenticeships are a real choice at age 18.
Why would we do that? Recent data shows that five years after finishing a course in 2018, the average level 4 apprentice was earning £32,000; by contrast, the average graduate was earning just £26,500 and the lower quartile of graduates were earning £19,000 or less. In many cases, a high-quality apprenticeship can be a better option than a low-value university course. That is why we would make that change.