Business of the House

Chris Philp Excerpts

Thursday 31st October 2024 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

Before we come to business questions, I am sure that the House will want to send our best wishes to Robin James, who retires today after 40 years, during which he clerked the Home Affairs Committee, the Foreign Affairs Committee, the Defence Committee, the Committees on Standards and the Committee of Privileges. Robin was a Clerk of the Committee that approved the building of Portcullis House, and as a Clerk to many Committees since, he has produced many thorough reports. I wish him a long, happy and fulfilling retirement.

[Chris Philp (Croydon South) (Con)]

Will the Leader of the House provide us with the forthcoming business?

[The Leader of the House of Commons (Lucy Powell)]

The business for the week commencing 4 November includes:

Monday 4 November—Continuation of the Budget debate.

Tuesday 5 November—Continuation of the Budget debate.

Wednesday 6 November—Conclusion of the Budget debate.

The House will rise for the November recess at the conclusion of business on Wednesday 6 November and return on Monday 11 November.

The provisional business for the week commencing 11 November will include:

Monday 11 November—General debate on flood preparedness.

Tuesday 12 November—Remaining stages of the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill.

Wednesday 13 November—Debate on a motion to approve the draft Voter Identification (Amendment of List of Specified Documents) Regulations 2024, followed by a debate on a motion to approve the draft Environmental Protection (Single-use Vapes) (England) Regulations 2024, followed by a debate on motions to approve the draft Export and Investment Guarantees (Limit on Exports and Insurance Commitments) Order 2024, the draft Export and Investment Guarantees (Limit on Exports and Insurance Commitments) (No. 2) Order 2024, and the draft Export and Investment Guarantees (Limit on Exports and Insurance Commitments) (No. 3) Order 2024.

Thursday 14 November—Second Reading of the Lords Spiritual (Women) Act 2015 (Extension) Bill [Lords].

Friday 15 November—The House will not be sitting.

[Chris Philp]

Mr Speaker, I echo your thanks and congratulations to Robin James, who retires today after 40 years of service. In this House, we all rely on the service of the Clerks, and I know that we are all extremely grateful to Robin for the work that he has done over four decades. I am sure that the whole House will also want to send our thoughts, prayers and best wishes to those affected by the terrible floods currently happening in Spain. Some British citizens are affected as well.

It is good that we will have such ample time to debate the Budget, because it raises some extremely serious issues. On 29 July, the Chancellor of the Exchequer stood at the Dispatch Box and told us that there was a £22 billion black hole. That claim has been repeated by Labour Ministers subsequently as a pretext for the tax rises that they planned all along. The Chancellor asked the Office for Budget Responsibility to produce a report into this matter, which was published yesterday. It is called the “Review of the March 2024 forecast for departmental expenditure limits”—a snappy title. I have read that report, as I am sure others have, and nowhere does it mention £22 billion. That number is not there at all. In fact, the only reference to a number is found on page 2 and in table 1. Even the Treasury, straining every sinew, could only find numbers that added up to £9.5 billion, and even there the OBR says that

“it is not possible to judge how much of the £9.5 billion”

might actually have been realised. When the Chancellor said that there was a £22 billion black hole, yesterday’s OBR report now proves that that was simply untrue. Will she come here and apologise for providing that number to the House, given that the OBR report shows that it was simply not true, and certainly does not justify £40 billion-worth of tax rises—the largest tax rises in any Budget in history?

Let me turn to election promises and trust in politics, because when we make promises to the public, it is important that we keep them. [Laughter.] I do not know why you are laughing, because these are your promises. The Labour party said that its plans did not require any extra tax rises. Yesterday, the Government announced £40 billion-worth of extra tax rises. They said that there would be no increase in national insurance, but yesterday they announced a £25 billion increase in national insurance.

Let me turn now to their final fig leaf: working people. Apparently, working people would not be affected. In the last couple of hours the Chancellor herself, on the BBC, has admitted what we all knew all along: that working people would be affected, as a result of lower wages. In fact, we can quantify that, thanks to the OBR’s analysis—I am now quite a fan of the OBR. It published yesterday its “Economic and fiscal outlook”. It is 205 pages long, so some Labour Members might not have had a chance to read it all, but I have. On page 54, in paragraph 3.11, it tells us exactly how much of that £25 billion national insurance increase will fall on the shoulders of working people. The OBR says that

“76 per cent of the total”

will result in “lower real wages” for working people. So 76% of that £25 billion increase will fall on the shoulders of working people. That is £19 billion a year lower wages as a result of yesterday’s Budget. That is not me; that is the OBR. So perhaps the Leader of the House would like to apologise to those working people for the £19 billion pay cut she has just handed them.

During the election campaign, Conservative Members warned that Labour’s plans would result in a £2,094 tax increase per working household, and Labour called us liars. I remember being on the radio and the TV, and Labour shadow Ministers at the time—including the Leader of the House, I think—called us liars. We now know the truth: £40 billion a year. That is £2,173 per working household, so about £100 more than we warned. Perhaps she can apologise for that as well.

We also warned that the tax burden would increase to 37.4% of GDP. The OBR says that it will be 38% of GDP—higher even than we warned when Labour called us liars. That is the highest tax burden ever in our country’s history. So the Government were elected on a false prospectus. The OBR has now told us that will result in lower growth by the end of the forecast period and higher inflation. The truth has finally come out: the Government are going to tax more, they are going to borrow more, and they are going to spend more, and now we know who will pay: working people, to the tune of £19 billion a year.

[Mr Speaker]

Can I just say to the shadow Leader of the House that he said “you”? I am definitely not responsible for this Budget—I want to make that very clear.