Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation

Chris Evans Excerpts

Wednesday 15th March 2023 Commons Chamber

[Chris Evans (Islwyn) (Lab/Co-op)]

It is always a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Clacton (Giles Watling), who is frozen in time for those of us of a certain vintage as a vicar who married into an extended Liverpudlian family. I think it was around the time, Mr Deputy Speaker, that we first met, when I was a little boy and you were the candidate in the Pontypridd by-election. We are all showing our age here.

When Ministers are asked what the Government are going to do about the cost of living crisis, they often reply, “We are taking tough decisions.” We already know that the tax burden is at its highest level ever, while inflation runs at 10.1% and interest rates stand at 4%. This raises the question of who is really bearing the brunt of these tough decisions. Is it the homeowners exiting fixed-rate deals only to be faced with new ones with higher rates, and with little money left over for spending on other essentials? Is it prospective first-time buyers who feel that ownership is just a pipe dream and, even if they cannot afford a mortgage, worry that rents could rise as landlords pass on higher mortgage rates? Is it the carer who finds that higher fuel prices are eating into their pay, as they rely on private transport to deliver vital services to vulnerable people? Or is it those who get paid on a weekly basis and struggle to budget for their monthly direct debits? For many people the cost of living crisis is not a political slogan; it is the reality of their daily lives. It is they who really are taking the tough decisions, not the Ministers who are sent out to defend the Government week in, week out.

The UK economy has been hit by a series of significant economic shocks, including the change in our trading relationship with the European Union, the covid pandemic and the sharp rise in global energy prices related to Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine and its people. For the United Kingdom, these shocks have eroded the terms on which we trade with the outside world. The prices we can get for the goods we sell have not kept up with the prices we have to pay for the goods we buy. The Government position has made us poorer as a country. The fall in our national real income has manifested itself in a rise in the prices we have to pay for the things we buy as consumers.

This position was not helped by the infamous “fiscal event” last September which saw the biggest programme of tax cuts in half a century, one that benefited the very wealthiest while adding tens of billions of pounds to the national debt; and I see from today’s announcement that the Conservative party has not learned from that.

The result of that fiscal event was the pound dropping to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985, and the UK is now the only country in the G7 to be forecast negative growth this year. The new Prime Minister has peddled the myth that he will halve inflation in a year, and we heard that from the Chancellor earlier—he said it will be less than half. This is in the hope that people somehow believe prices will be halved as well. That goes against economic orthodoxy: when prices stay high, they very rarely come down, and they certainly will not be halved if inflation is halved.

[Richard Graham]

Page 9 of the “Impact on households” distributional analysis has a chart that clearly shows that the major beneficiaries of this Budget are those in the bottom decile of earnings, and then the values in the graph slope downwards so that they are negative for those in the deciles above 7, to 8, 9 and 10—the most well-off in the country. Therefore, this Budget very much helps all our constituents who are the least well off. Does the hon. Gentleman agree that the whole point of public spending and taxation is to help our least well-off constituents?

[Chris Evans]

I have always admired the hon. Gentleman. When I first came into the House, the first intervention that I took was from him. We talked about high unemployment and I think he said something along the same lines. I urge him to look at that graph again, however, because those are frozen thresholds. There is real danger when we look at the fine print of the Budget. What always happens is that the euphoria of the Chancellor’s Budget speech is unpicked by the media on Saturday and Sunday, so I hope that we can have a discussion on Monday about the same issue.

It is families who pay the price in the Budget, which appears to be a theme across the Government’s economic plans. The developments on energy prices, about which we are all concerned, have been particularly stark. In October, as the energy price guarantee was put in place to moderate what would have been an even higher increase in Ofgem’s price cap, the typical energy price bill was still nearly twice as high as a year earlier. Who knows what the Government will do after June? Household energy prices will not come down to previous levels any time soon, and from a cost of living perspective, it is the level of what people must pay that matters. Energy bills will remain a challenge for many people, particularly those on lower incomes. Again, I am afraid that the evidence suggests that the Government are not siding with working people and have not made the oil and gas giants pay their fair share.

The story is similar for another essential in life: food. Before the war, Russia and Ukraine supplied a significant share of the global consumption of agricultural products such as sunflower oil, wheat and barley. With disruption to those supplies, prices increased sharply over 2022, which drove up food prices in UK shops and supermarkets, including for the basics that everyone has in their cupboard or fridge. In some supermarkets, a pint of milk increased from 80p to 95p, pasta went up from 45p to 70p and some brands of butter are up to nearly £5. They may seem like small increases, but when added up, even the smallest changes can make a huge difference at the end of the weekly shop. Every day, people see that for themselves and do not know how they will pay for it.

Before the crisis, food bank usage was on the rise. Between April 2021 and March 2022, the Trussell Trust distributed more than 2.1 million emergency food parcels to people in crisis, which is an increase of 14% compared with the same period in 2019-20. Food is one of life’s essentials—we cannot get away from that; we need it to live—and the fact that many people across the country can no longer afford to pay for it is a disgrace in the 21st century.

The issue is deeply affecting my constituents in Islwyn. The Trades Union Congress found that one in five people in Islwyn have missed a meal or gone without food during the present crisis. According to Action for Children, 4,578 children were living in poverty in my constituency in 2020. We can no longer leave the hard-working people and children of this country to go hungry.

I cannot talk about the Budget without talking about housing, or the lack thereof. New mortgage rates are higher than they were a year ago, which means that about one in 10 households will see their mortgage rates go up this year. If new mortgage rates rise by 3%, as market rates currently suggest, the typical monthly interest payment will go up by just under £250 for everyone. In the Budget, however, there is no mortgage emergency plan or the plan for affordable housing that we were promised.

The people who are affected are simply playing by the rules and working hard for little reward. The UK economy is suffering because of the global energy price shock and a decade of poor productivity growth, which has been made worse by erecting huge barriers to trade with the EU. Those circumstances are making everyone poorer, with consequences for low-income households with children, people with disabilities and poor pensioners.

We desperately need urgent support to be targeted at the hardest-hit households, plus an investment in skills, infrastructure and business finance to rebalance the economy away from growth based on consumer spending fuelled by rising house prices towards business investment and exports. After 13 long years, the Government can be characterised by low growth, low wages, higher prices and Government waste. Frankly, it is time for a change. This country deserves better.

Scottish Independence Referendum

Chris Evans Excerpts

Monday 22nd March 2021 Westminster Hall

[Caroline Nokes (in the Chair)]

I remind hon. Members that there have been some changes to normal practice in order to support the new hybrid arrangements. Timings of debates have been amended to allow technical arrangements to be made for the next debate. There will also be suspensions between debates.

I remind Members participating both physically and virtually that they must arrive for the start of debates in Westminster Hall and are expected to remain for the entire debate, and that they are visible at all times, both to one another and to us in the Boothroyd Room. If Members attending virtually have any technical problems, can they please email the Westminster Hall Clerk’s email address? Members attending physically should clean their spaces before they use them and before they leave the room.

[Chris Evans (Islwyn) (Lab/Co-op) [V]]

I beg to move,

That this House has considered e-petition 570779, relating to consent for a referendum on Scottish independence.

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Ms Nokes. The petition calls for consent not to be given to another referendum on Scottish independence and has received 109,929 signatures. It says:

“The independence referendum was called a once in a generation vote—so let it be.”

I thank the petitioner for creating the petition. In preparation for this speech, I spoke to the petitioner, who wishes to remain anonymous because they fear the abuse they will receive for creating a petition on this subject. They know that the independence debate has become extremely divisive; unfortunately, a lot of the political discussion around independence is not constructive or measured, but deeply emotive and all-consuming.

The creator of the petition believes that the focus of political debate in Scotland has been too centred on independence, at the expense of other, extremely important issues; they feel that political time and resources have been funnelled into debates on independence instead of being used to address pressing issues in Scotland. Instead of resources being spent on independence in the hope that, once independence is gained, all problems will be solved, the petitioner would like Scottish politicians to look to local problems now. They mention the need to tackle the rise in the use of food banks and the problems Scottish hospitals face—all with powers they feel the Scottish Government already hold.

One other issue the petitioner would like the Scottish Government to focus on is education, which is already a devolved matter. The long-term costs of the pandemic will fall disproportionately on today’s children, whose education has also been impacted this year through lost learning. It is vital that education is prioritised to ensure the economic recovery and growth of Scotland after the pandemic. The number of full-time or equivalent teachers in Scotland’s schools has fallen by 1,700 since 2007, while the ratio of pupils to teachers in Scottish secondary schools is at its highest since 2013. Only 14% of pupils in primary 1 through 3 are in a class with fewer than 18 pupils, despite promises to cap class sizes at 18 in 2007. That is seriously worrying. The Scottish Government have these powers; they cannot blame Westminster for these problems. The Scottish Government should focus on delivering promises made 14 years ago, rather than re-running a referendum from 2014. I fail to see how a divisive second referendum will help children in Scottish schools.

Ultimately, the problem is this: it always seems to be jam tomorrow. What is the point in more powers if the powers already held by the Scottish Government are not being used properly? Even when the Scottish Government are offered more powers, they defer and delay taking them—Scottish National party Ministers have twice asked the Department for Work and Pensions to delay the devolution of the benefits system, in 2016 and again in 2018. Last year, Scottish Ministers revealed that full devolution of benefits would be completed only in 2024. In June, they pushed that back further, to 2025. If the Scottish Government’s progress on disability benefits is anything to go by, some of Scotland’s most vulnerable people will have to wait a decade for benefits to be up and running in a separate Scotland.

Frankly, claims that it would take only 18 months from an independence vote to set up an independent state are laughable. On the one hand, SNP politicians say publicly that they simply cannot deliver the Scotland they envision without more powers. Yet, quietly, when they are due to get more powers, they say, “Not yet. We’re not ready.” It is too simple to just blame everything on Westminster. I know it is tempting—I know the frustration of Opposition—but we should try to find solutions, rather than taking powers for power’s sake.

The Scottish Government today published draft legislation on holding a second independence referendum. It is all well and good saying that the immediate priority is

“dealing with the pandemic and keeping the country safe”,

but why publish this Bill now? It is quite clear what the Scottish Government’s focus is. Even after the worst effects of the pandemic are over, recovery will take a considerable time, and the Scottish Government should be focused on that. Given the current emphasis on Scottish independence in political discussion within SNP, people could be forgiven for querying the headlines that we are in one of the largest health and economic crises since world war two.

Each hour of political debate given over to independence is an hour not spent discussing how Scottish businesses and tourism will recover from covid or how to tackle unemployment and poverty or waiting times in Scottish hospitals. Hospitals around the UK have been put under enormous pressure during the pandemic, and all those who have staffed them have done incredible work. They have taken extra shifts, put their psychological and physical health at risk, and gone above and beyond to save lives during the pandemic. As we begin to look at how and where hospitals will need support to recover and grow in the future, Scotland needs to look at its hospitals and realise that a lot of work needs to be done to support them fully.

Rather than having all political energies focused on independence, discussion should be focused urgently on the mental health crisis that the pandemic has highlighted, the waiting times in Scottish hospitals, and the health of the population. Right now, politicians should be concentrating on the health and economic crisis that the pandemic has brought about. The provision of food parcels and food aid has grown significantly in Scotland in the last 10 years. In 2009, there was one Trussell Trust food bank operating in Scotland. By April 2017 that had increased to 52, with 119 centres, as some operate satellite centres in various locations in the surrounding area, the better to serve those who cannot easily travel to them or who cannot afford to. The number of families who have had to rely on food banks has risen during the pandemic.

I understand that those problems are not unique to Scotland, but I do not think they are helped by the obsession with independence. I know that those who shout the loudest often get the attention, but I do not think most people want their Government to focus on constitutional matters in the middle of a crisis. Rather than spending political energy on independence, should not the SNP be ensuring that every family can put food on the table and that the Scottish Parliament does everything it can to ensure that the economic effects of the pandemic do not result in a further increase in the number of people relying on food banks?

Even before the pandemic, around 1 million people in Scotland were living in poverty, and that figure is set to rise. In 2019 an estimated 24.6% of all Scottish households were in fuel poverty. That is almost a quarter of all families. Let us not beat around the bush: that shows an urgent problem of fuel poverty among Scottish families. Now is not the time to discuss constitutional change. Now is the time to look at what can be done to prevent poverty and to aid those who face unemployment or homelessness.

This year has seen the UK’s exit from the European Union, alongside the changes that the pandemic has brought. The petitioner has voiced the wish for politicians to allow some time for the dust to settle on those two issues before more political unrest is contemplated. It is surely not the answer to Brexit to do exactly the same with Scottish independence. It does not make sense to cut off your nose to spite your face. If a second referendum is deemed necessary, now is certainly not the time. We need to focus on recovering from the pandemic and to allow for the results of Brexit to become clearer and more settled before any constitutional change can even be considered. The SNP has consistently said that there could be a referendum this year. Thankfully, the Scottish public are rejecting that, in large numbers. Can it really be appropriate even to consider such a divisive and destructive referendum this year?

In 2014 the Scottish First Minister said she hoped people would seize the

“once in a lifetime opportunity for Scotland”

in the independence vote. The people of Scotland voted—they voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom. I was on the losing side of the Brexit referendum two years later. Never once did I call for a second referendum. I knew that we had to accept the democratic will of the people and make the best of it. We cannot simply rerun referendums until we get the answer we are looking for. Quite frankly, if the past five years have shown us anything, it is how divisive referendums can be. The SNP should be leading the people of Scotland, not misleading them by saying that there are simple solutions to Scottish problems and telling them tales of an imaginary utopia with Scotland outside the UK. Rather than picking at old wounds, the SNP should focus on using the powers it has to help the Scottish people.

Ultimately, the obsession with an independent Scotland is driving a wedge between families, friends, neighbours and communities. The petitioner shared with me fears about the abuse aimed their way for wanting Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom. The petitioner’s family was so nervous about the abuse that they asked the petitioner to remove their name from the petition. That is not a healthy discourse, but it is one that results from offering simple solutions to complex problems. Even as I agreed to lead the debate for the Petitions Committee, I was warned to expect abuse online. It is not surprising that people are angry when they have been told that there is a simple solution to all of Scotland’s problems and that the rest of the UK is standing in the way. If I thought that that was true—that the rest of the UK was standing in the way of a great education system, an end to poverty and a fairer society for Scottish people within an independent Scotland—I would be happy to fight alongside the Scottish Government. However, nothing is ever as simple as that. It takes hard work to solve any problem.

Rather than focusing on jam today, let us work together as four nations to achieve the best for all our people. Let devolved Governments use the powers that they have effectively, rather than focusing on what powers they could take next.

[Caroline Nokes (in the Chair)]

Before I call the next speaker, I have to tell Members that I am instigating a three-and-a-half-minute time limit. I call Douglas Ross.

--- Later in debate ---

[Chris Evans [V]]

This has been a very measured and good debate. There have been passions on both sides as we would expect on something that stirs up such passion. However, I hope that those in the wider public who want to indulge in personal abuse because someone has a different view from them learn from the debate. It is my genuine belief that, as we have seen with the Brexit referendum and previously with the Scottish referendum, we will get nowhere in our political discourse if all we do is shout at each other. We will not be able to hear what others are saying.

Many in the debate have liked to compare Wales to Scotland. From a Welsh perspective, the warning I have for Scottish politicians is that the truth is that we are in danger of disappearing down a constitutional rabbit hole. It is no good talking about the constitution all the time. As I said in my earlier speech, the idea of jam tomorrow will not cut it anymore. These are desperate times. We live in a pandemic that has never been seen before, and we face an economic downturn like never before. Constitutional arguments will become secondary to that. Therefore, we can set the debate either as independence versus Unionism, or about how we want our country—our United Kingdom—to look in the coming years.

Question put and agreed to.

Resolved,

That this House has considered e-petition 570779, relating to consent for a referendum on Scottish independence.

Oral Answers to Questions

Chris Evans Excerpts

Wednesday 9th January 2013 Commons Chamber

[Chris Evans (Islwyn) (Lab/Co-op)]

Q9. A colleague of Lord Marland said: “He likes the foreign travel, leading trade delegations, meeting foreign leaders, but wasn’t so keen on the detailed”policy of his new job. Hmm, I wonder if the Prime Minister knows anybody else like that.

[The Prime Minister]

The hon. Gentleman had all morning to think of that! It is important that we have Ministers in both Houses who are linking up with the fastest-growing countries in the world. That is why our exports to China and India are up 50%. We are connecting Britain with the fastest-growing parts of the world.