Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation

Brooks Newmark Excerpts

Wednesday 19th March 2014 Commons Chamber

[Sammy Wilson (East Antrim) (DUP)]

I welcome the announcement that the Chancellor made about the growth figures. In my constituency in Northern Ireland, there has been a 19% fall in unemployment as a result of the increased growth over the past year. That means that 550 individuals are earning money who were not earning money this time last year. That is to be welcomed.

I do not want to take a partisan view of the Budget. Fortunately, we in Northern Ireland do not have to be involved in the competition between the Government parties and the Opposition party here. I want to look objectively at what was said in the Budget.

My first concern is about growth. The Chancellor gave the growth figures, but we must remember that the figures have been revised time and again. Even though it has the imprimatur of the Office for Budget Responsibility, one has to ask what that growth is predicated on and whether it is sustainable. The growth up until now has been determined by consumer expenditure. According to the figures in the Budget, consumer expenditure will not jump dramatically, but, compared with the last two years, we will see a 48-times jump in private investment and a three-times jump in exports. If all the measures that the Government have taken to improve investment, such as the reduction of corporation tax and the enhanced capital allowances that were announced last year, and all the measures that they have taken to improve exports have not worked in the past two years, on what is the Chancellor basing the massive jump in private investment and exports that he is predicting will sustain growth for the next year?

[Mr Brooks Newmark (Braintree) (Con)]

The hon. Gentleman makes a good point, but from a business man’s standpoint, the decision to invest is based on business confidence. When there is growth, they feel confident about investing in their businesses, which, in turn, creates jobs and more growth.

[Sammy Wilson]

I would accept that point if I had not heard Government Members saying for the past three years that businesses are now more confident because there is a firm hand at the helm. We have not seen that come through in the figures to date. That is my first concern. I want growth to be sustained. I want the Chancellor to succeed. It does not matter to me electorally whether he succeeds or fails, but it matters to my constituents.

My second point is about the distribution of growth. Most of the growth has been in the south-east of England. Regions such as Northern Ireland, where there has been growth of 0.3%, have not benefited.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Mitchell]

My right hon. Friend is absolutely right, but can he imagine what it would be like today if the Opposition’s policies were being pursued?

I wish to make a point that the Chairman of the Treasury Committee, my hon. Friend the Member for Chichester (Mr Tyrie), will not agree with, although I thought his speech was excellent in every other respect. The Government deserve huge praise for sticking to their plans on international development. The House will be aware that as a result of the all-party support for that policy, countless lives have been saved. Hundreds of thousands of children are alive today in the horn of Africa who would not have been but for British leadership on the issue.

Through the House strongly supporting the Government’s policy to vaccinate, the British contribution means that we will vaccinate a child every two seconds in the poor world, and every two minutes it will save a child’s life from the effects of diseases that none of our children die from today. As a result of reforms introduced by the Government, such as building up governance structure and ensuring that poor countries have the benefit of effective taxation, independent media and so forth, we should all be incredibly proud of the success of that policy. I am enormously proud to have served in a Government who stuck to their promises to the poorest people in the world, and who did not seek to balance the books on the backs of the poorest, either in Britain or overseas. That is also hugely in British interests—this is not just soft-hearted altruism—because it is not only aid from Britain, but aid and development for the benefit of Britain. It enhances the security and stability of our generation and of future generations, and it builds on the prosperity that our generation enjoys, and that future generations will enjoy to a greater degree as a result of those successful international development policies.

I also believe that the Chancellor was right to raise the threshold at which tax becomes payable, and—at a time of great austerity—to target help on those who earn the least. Of course the 40% level bites much earlier than we intended, but the austerity we have faced was harder and deeper, and inevitably those with a little more have had to pay a little more in those circumstances. I am clear, however, that the 40% band needs to be raised as soon as we can, and the drag of people into that band should be reversed once the economy can withstand it.

[Mr Newmark]

Most importantly, does my right hon. Friend agree that raising the personal allowance from £10,000 to £10,500 will save up to 3 million individuals up to £800 extra a year, which is good news for their pockets?

[Mr Mitchell]

My hon. Friend, as always, is absolutely right, and bearing in mind the speech by the right hon. Member for Newcastle upon Tyne East (Mr Brown), it is important to remember that in 2010 the richest 1% in Britain paid a quarter of all income taxes. Today the richest 1% are paying a third, and everyone in the House would agree that under these circumstances, that is correct.

The focus on getting younger people in particular into work is enormously important, and the raised thresholds clearly provide some help to that group. Reducing and ending employer’s national insurance contributions for those under 21 was an important measure made last year that I strongly support, just as I support the emphasis from across the House on increasing the minimum wage. All those things are extremely important.

We have also seen other ways of improving the situation for those entering the world of work. Last year, 510,000 apprenticeships started, while in 2010 there were only 230,000. That is enormously important in the part of the world I represent in the west midlands. Money has also been announced for new locally generated policies in eight core cities in Britain, which is right. However, we still have 1 million people in this country—children who have left school or students who have left university—who are not in education, employment or training, and we need an unremitting attack on that. It is quite wrong that young people who have left school or university should find themselves doing anything other than earning or learning. Although we have seen a significant decrease in the JSA claimant count, unemployment—particularly among young people—remains far too high in the west midlands, and we must continue that unremitting attack.

My final point was touched on in an excellent speech by my hon. Friend the Member for Fareham (Mr Hoban) and concerns the changes that the Government are making to welfare. I believe there are aspects of those changes that Members across the House can, and should, support. Many right hon. and hon. Members will have seen “Benefits Street” on Channel 4, which I think did a huge service to public broadcasting. Benefits Street is six miles from my constituency of Sutton Coldfield as the crow flies, but light years away in most other respects. What that programme showed in connection with welfare was the effect over many years of a very non-interventionist policy. It was almost as if benefits were paid, and once paid the recipients were forgotten.

The Government deserve considerable credit for helping those who cannot help themselves—for example by maintaining disability benefits throughout the stage of austerity—while also ensuring that we give help to those who can work and should do so. It is tough, difficult and hard to re-craft welfare policy, but in that Channel 4 programme we saw why it is essential to tackle the issue.

In conclusion, I believe that the welfare reforms, aspects of which command support throughout the country, could be one of the coalition Government’s finest achievements during their term in office. I shall end where I started by saying that the Chancellor and his colleagues on the Treasury Bench deserve considerable credit for crafting this Budget, which tackles needs at this stage of the economic cycle. I have no doubt whatsoever that his own share price will be rising, and rightly so.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr John Redwood (Wokingham) (Con)]

I would like to remind the House of my declaration of interests: I provide some advice on global economies and investments to an industrial company and an investment company.

I greatly welcome this Budget, because I think it is right that we need to do more to help the promotion of exports, industrial investment, the rebalancing of our economy and continuing the long process of getting the deficit under control. In our exchanges already I have highlighted the fact that debt interest will be higher than the education programme next year, despite the Government’s best endeavours, and that unless we carry on to make good and rapid progress to get the deficit down and eliminate it, that debt burden will build up and future Governments, whoever they may be, will find they are spending more and more money on debt interest and have less and less for the public services that our electorates expect us to provide.

I would like to clear up a common misunderstanding about how that is being done that I think has occurred because of the use of jargon and economists’ language in describing the process. The reduction in the deficit has been described as 80% by spending cuts and 20% by tax rises. That is true if the programme is successfully completed by 2018 and if we measure it as a percentage of GDP at that point, but that is not how most people think about how an excessive deficit is curbed. If we have a large deficit in our own accounts, we have either to find a way of earning more money or to make immediate cuts in the amount of cash that we spend. I think a lot of people outside the House think that, because we inherited a deficit of £160 billion, 80% by spending cuts meant £132 billion-worth of cash cuts in public spending. Of course it does not, and I am very glad that it does not, because that would have done huge damage to important public services.

What the Government have decided to do is limit the rate of increase in public spending and promote a more active economy so that tax revenues eventually catch up, and we are in that long process. The first three years of this Government saw very little growth in the economy, which delayed the reduction in the deficit because we did not get the surge in tax revenues we were hoping for. Now it looks as if there is better news, with faster growth coming through, and so the process can be completed, assuming the economy still recovers.

I had thought we might cut public spending in real terms in the first two or three years, but it appears from the latest figures that there was a small real increase in public spending. In the first three years, current public spending went up by more than inflation, and if we look at the impact on the economy as a whole, it gives the lie to all those who suggest too much was cut too soon, and that that reduced output and was the cause of the delay in growth. If we look at the attribution of growth and decline in activity and incomes, we see that the public sector made a small positive contribution to the economy in every one of the first three years of the coalition Government. I hope that reassures some of those on the Opposition Benches who felt too much was being cut and damage was being done. The good news is that it was not. There will have to be some reductions in some programmes in the years ahead in order to hit the targets, however, because although public spending will continue to rise in cash terms, there will need to be a little bit of a real reduction in the next Parliament; and because some of the programmes need to go up quite a lot—debt interest will go up quite a bit anyway—we will have to make reductions in other programmes, whoever is in office.

[Mr Newmark]

My right hon. Friend is making an excellent point. Does he agree that, notwithstanding the austerity he is talking about and the fact that more than 500,000 jobs were lost in the public sector, what is particularly remarkable about these tough times was that 1.7 million jobs were created in the private sector?

[Mr Redwood]

Yes, that was magnificent news and it shows that the private sector is remarkably resilient despite all that has been thrown at it. That is why we can now look forward to both better living standards and a better public sector: we need all those people to be in work and paying more tax in order to pay for those public services that are much-wanted by our constituents.

I would also like to deal with the argument from the Opposition, which I thought was put in a very exaggerated form by the Labour leader in his response to the Budget, in what was a rather partisan appearance which was out of sympathy with his new style at Prime Minister’s questions. I am not one to condemn partisan debate, as I think sometimes it livens the place up, but it was a very partisan speech by the Leader of the Opposition.