Budget Resolutions and Economic Situation
Debate between Bill Esterson and Lord Barwell(13 years, 10 months ago)
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Gavin Barwell
My hon. Friend’s question is almost telepathic, because I was about to say that if the anger was genuine, I would have expected the Opposition Benches to be full throughout the debate, but that has not happened.
Gavin Barwell
I would happily give way but I want to make progress, if I may, given the time limit.
My constituents understand that the problem is due partly to the recession and partly to the previous Government. What they were looking for today is the truth, and for the Government to take the right decisions for the long term rather than chase tomorrow’s headlines. They want the deficit to be tackled without undermining the recovery, and as far as possible in a way that is fair to all sections of society and that protects front-line services. In her response, the Leader of the Opposition seemed to agree with those principles—but then told us absolutely nothing about how Labour would do things differently.
Bill Esterson
Last time I checked, I was an Opposition Back Bencher, as are my colleagues sitting next to me. I take exception to comments that suggest otherwise.
Gavin Barwell
Some Labour Back Benchers have attended the debate, but the Opposition Benches have hardly been full. The record is fairly clear.
The hon. Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves), who is not in the Chamber, said that it is the responsibility of the Conservatives to come up with the answers. It certainly is, and the Chancellor has discharged that today. However, it is the responsibility of the official Opposition to come up with a realistic alternative if they disagree with his measures. The hon. Members for Nottingham East (Chris Leslie) and for Great Grimsby (Austin Mitchell), who are also not in the Chamber, went much further and suggested that we could just grow our way out of the problem. They seemed not to understand that a structural deficit is one that will not disappear as the economy grows.
The key questions that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor had to answer today were: by how much to reduce borrowing, how quickly to do that, and what should be the balance between spending cuts and tax increases. The previous Government planned to dig deeper still into the hole by the end of this Parliament, and my right hon. Friend made the right judgment when he said that we should be in balance by the end of that period, and that we should have started paying off debt by 2014-15.
To the extent that I understand the Opposition’s position, they seem to be saying that we are doing too much too soon, and with too heavy a reliance on spending cuts. There are no risk-free options—it is actually a matter of judgment of the balance of risks—and there is growing evidence that the real risk to recovery is not robust action, but inaction. Anyone who has got into debt could tell us that the longer one leaves the problem, the worse it gets.
We are not going to convince Opposition Members on that point, because they have convinced themselves that Conservative Members take some ideological joy from cutting public services. It is worth putting on the record that that is complete and utter nonsense. I had lymphatic cancer at the age of seven and the NHS saved my life, and I have two children in a state primary school. My constituents want more police officers on their streets, and road maintenance to improve. I have come to this place wanting better public services, but they can be delivered only within a stable financial setting. That is what Conservatives stand for. There is a growing consensus on this point: the Liberal Democrats have shifted their position in the light of recent events in the money markets, and the Governor of the Bank of England, in a press conference on 12 May, said:
“it is very important that measures are taken straight away to demonstrate the seriousness and the credibility of the commitment to dealing with that deficit… I am very pleased that there is a very clear and binding commitment to accelerate the reduction in the deficit over the lifetime of the parliament, and to introduce additional measures this fiscal year to demonstrate the importance of getting to grips with that”—
problem—
“before running the risk of an adverse market reaction.”
The G20 communiqué a couple of weeks ago stated:
“Those countries with serious fiscal challenges need to accelerate the pace of consolidation. We welcome the recent announcements by some countries to reduce their deficits in 2010 and strengthen their…frameworks”.
On the balance between spending cuts and tax rises, Goldman Sachs published a paper on 14 April that reviewed every major fiscal consolidation since 1975 and concluded:
“we find that decisive budgetary adjustments that have focused on reducing…expenditure have…been successful”
and “typically boosted growth”, and that by contrast, those that rely on tax increases
“typically fail to correct…imbalances and are damaging for growth.”
The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts, based on the Budget, to which the Leader of the Opposition referred, show a slight reduction in growth this year and next compared with previous forecasts; but then, forecast growth is actually stronger as a result of the measures the Chancellor announced today.
On public services, there are many public sector employees in my constituency and they will be rightly concerned about what the Chancellor’s announcement today will mean for them. I welcome the commitment to protect the NHS, which clearly suffers from inflation above and beyond general inflation in the economy. That protection is well justified. I also believe there is the potential to make cuts without damaging the front line. Lord Myners, the former Financial Services Secretary, said in the other place:
“there is considerable waste in public expenditure. I have seen that in my own experience as a…Minister.”—[Official Report, House of Lords, 8 June 2010; Vol. 719, c. 625.]
Between 26 May and 2 June, the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales interviewed a number of its members, over 80% of whom believed that further efficiency savings were possible. I point out to the Treasury Bench that we must look at welfare payments, as the Chancellor said we would, over the next few months, because a 25% reduction in departmental expenditure is a significant target.
Let me say a few words about fairness. We need to protect not just the poorest but those in lower-paid jobs, who all too often are the group targeted whenever money needs to be raised. In that regard, raising the income tax threshold, thereby taking 880,000 people out of income tax, is a fantastic measure from the Liberal Democrat manifesto—but one that all Conservatives, I think, are happy to support. I also welcome the one-year council tax freeze. My own Conservative-controlled local authority will take advantage of it, and we hope that the Treasury Front-Bench team will find the money to extend it for a second year, as promised in the Conservative manifesto. On being progressive, I draw Members’ attention to chart A2 on page 67 of the Red Book, which shows that the overall effect of the package of measures announced by the Chancellor is progressive.
Finally, I would like to make a moral point, above and beyond the economic arguments I have tried to advance. Over the past few years, we in this country have been living beyond our means. The current generation is imposing a burden on our children and grandchildren. Above and beyond the economic arguments that will take place on the Floor of the House about that, it is morally objectionable to saddle our children in this way with debts they will spend their entire working lives trying to pay off. Although the measures the Chancellor has announced are tough, he told the truth and struck the right balance. There is a stark contrast between that and the Labour party’s complete lack of recognition of the problem, its lack of responsibility and its failure to apologise.