Autumn Forecast

Barry Gardiner Excerpts

Monday 29th November 2010 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

I certainly agree with my hon. Friend that an essential part of this programme for public expenditure is getting greater productivity in the public services. As the former Chair of the Public Accounts Committee, he has much to offer. The Treasury is engaging with him on this, I hope, and will engage further with him in the coming months. He is absolutely right that, in a period when there is less money available, if we do not have reform, we will have deterioration in the service. That is why we have got to have reforms and why Parliament is being asked to support those reforms in the next few months.

[Barry Gardiner (Brent North) (Lab)]

The OBR’s central forecast is for a “relatively sluggish medium-term outlook”, which it says

“reflects…the impact of the Government’s fiscal consolidation.”

Can the Chancellor confirm that it follows from this that if the Government’s fiscal consolidation had been less severe, the medium-term outlook would be less sluggish? In other words, he has cut too far and too fast, just as Ireland has.

[Mr Osborne]

The short answer is no. We inherited a situation of very deep recession, a major banking crisis and a record fiscal deficit. I thought—although one is never sure—it was common ground across the parties that at least we had to do something to address the fiscal deficit, not that we have heard specific measures from the Opposition for doing that. In the summer, the OBR produced a comparison of the growth forecasts under the previous Government’s plans and under the plans of the current Government, which showed that over a period of time we were putting forward a much more sustainable path for growth that would lead to higher growth in the future. It also avoids the downside risk—the tail risk—of a major fiscal event, which would be a major loss of confidence in the UK. It is pretty remarkable that here we are today debating the numbers, and that is fine, but we are not having to worry about the UK’s creditworthiness, unlike some other countries in the European Union, even though we inherited the largest budget deficit in the EU. We have taken measures to take ourselves out of that firing line, and now we have sustainable growth and jobs are being created.