Climate Change

Barry Gardiner Excerpts

Wednesday 24th June 2026 Commons Chamber

[Barry Gardiner (Brent West) (Lab)]

Madam Deputy Speaker, you will be delighted to hear that I am just about to throw away 22 pages of my 23-page speech in order to allow other Members to get in.

I want to quote the Climate Minister—or, rather, I want to misquote her: “Twelve years ago, in 2026, the Royal Meteorological Society held a conference to recall 50 years since the heatwave of 1976. That week was marked by record temperatures, and the Met Office delivered a forecast for 2056 that stunned the journalists and reporters who were present. Its forecast predicted 45° summer heat in England in 2056. Now, in 2038, as we stand at the beginning of the period of carbon budget 7, we know that 45° has already been reached, that the 1.5° threshold was passed nine years ago, in 2029, and that our carbon budget growth and development plan was simply not up to the job. The scientists were right. We, the politicians, were wrong.”

That is the speech that I want to ensure the Minister never has to make. It is why their lordships’ reasoned amendment in the other place last night was so ill conceived, and why today’s debate is so important. It is also the reason that the remarks of the shadow Secretary of State, the right hon. Member for East Surrey (Claire Coutinho), were so ill judged, and I want to answer some of the questions that she posed. She will recall that, in 2023, her own figures put the number of jobs that would result from the net zero target at between 135,000 and 725,000. She said that there might be a decline of between 8,000 and 75,000, but according to the Climate Change Committee’s progress report on the net zero economy, the number of green jobs that has been reached is 650,000. That is the figure that the committee has come out with today.

The shadow Secretary of State also said how silly it was to talk about soil structure and waste, so perhaps she does not quite understand that soils and waste are actually emitters of carbon, and that if we want to achieve net zero and get a clean, green energy infrastructure, we have to think holistically.

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[Justin Madders (Ellesmere Port and Bromborough) (Lab)]

Thank you, Madam Deputy Speaker. I will attempt to be moderate and not twirl.

The net zero transition is now a fundamental part of our economy, generating about £105 billion in value and, as we have heard, employing over 1 million people. Importantly, it is not focused in one part of the country, but spread all across the UK. Growth in the sector is expanding, with 400,000 jobs expected to be created by 2030. Given that productivity in the net zero sector is one and a half times the average for the UK, the potential is there for all to see.

As we head towards the future, we need to have in mind the protection of existing jobs. The order sets the carbon budget for 12 years’ time, but there is an area where I think the Government are letting the perfect become the enemy of the good: the zero emission vehicle mandate. This country has a long history of building cars that should rightly be regarded as some of the best in the world. We have a strong manufacturing base for electric vehicles—including at the Vauxhall Motors plant in Ellesmere Port, which has embraced the transition to net zero by becoming an all-electric plant—but the market demand for electric vehicles has not developed as quickly as anticipated. As of May, the market share for electric vehicles was only 26%, which is a long way short of the 33% required this year in the ZEV mandate.

The Climate Change Committee predicted that the market share for new electric vehicles would reach 55% by next year. Market share is going to need to double within a year for that prediction to come true, which is simply not going to happen. Its prediction that the proportion of electric cars and vans will reach around 95% of new sales by 2030 is not born out by experience to date, and needs revising down in light of the evidence.

[Barry Gardiner]

My hon. Friend is making a good point. Does he accept that the way that the previous Government changed the dates for the ZEV mandate may have had something to do with people’s confidence in being able to support an electric vehicle?

[Justin Madders]

My hon. Friend makes an interesting point, because there are a whole range of factors, which I will come to, in why people are not purchasing the vehicles. The industry is still keen to have a clear signal on where we are heading, but the speed and steepness of the incline is too much for it to bear.

We cannot ignore the fact that the figure of 26% relies heavily on subsidies from Government, which are pushing sales to about twice their natural level. I am afraid that there is deep concern among manufacturers about that. To fill the gap between demand and what domestic manufacturers are producing, the industry is already having to buy credits, in the order of hundreds of millions of pounds a year, which is clearly not sustainable. Meanwhile, importing manufacturers, including from China, can exceed ZEV thresholds here and sell their unused credits on to domestic manufacturers. That means that foreign manufacturers of EVs from China are not only taking ever-increasing shares of the market but profiting from exceeding ZEV thresholds.

To be clear, this is not an argument about having no ZEV mandate. It is important that we tackle the climate crisis and put an end to internal combustion engines, but what bigger fillip could there be to the climate sceptics than UK factories closing down because of a rigid approach to net zero—an approach that sees millions of pounds go to overseas competitors whose manufacturing is often far more carbon intensive than ours?

The ZEV mandate must be adapted to take account of the real-world market conditions, and the escalator must be changed to reflect them. It is clear that for many consumers, even with generous discounts, the cost of a new EV is out of reach. We need to be aware of limitations caused by cost, range anxiety and charging infrastructure. I agree with my hon. Friend the Member for Brent West (Barry Gardiner) that we can do more in that area.

As a number of Members have said in this debate, we need to take people with us; we are clearly not bringing them to where we need them to be in order to hit the target. I welcome the Chancellor saying that the review of the mandate will be brought forward to this year, but that needs to start now, and we need to get the right answers within a few months.

On the subject of well-meaning policies that could actually be counterproductive, I raise a red flag about the proposed introduction of the deposit return scheme, scheduled for later next year. Most households already recycle their materials through kerbside collections. The participation rates for kerbside recycling are high: it works and it provides a revenue stream to councils. If we are changing that, the public will undoubtedly ask what problem we are trying to fix.

The practical reality of the scheme for many people will be a minor inconvenience that they are happy to participate in, but for parents, carers, disabled people, elderly residents and those without easy access to large supermarkets, it could be a significant nuisance. People with complex lives will simply not do it at all. Once again, there is a well-meaning policy here that risks alienating people and damaging our road to net zero, which, on this side of the House at least, we all want to get to.