Autumn Budget Forecast

Baroness Wheatcroft Excerpts

Tuesday 29th November 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, the first thing to remind the House of is that it was my right honourable friend the Chancellor who took the lead in ensuring that the Basel III reforms on capital were phased in over a period to 2019, which was accepted by the G20 precisely for the reasons that the noble Lord gives; that is, that we did not want to place more burdens on the credit situation in the short term. Similarly, the Vickers commission has recommended that certain of its reforms be on a similarly extended timetable for the same reason. As for today’s measures, the £20 billion of underpinning of the national loan guarantee scheme is directed at ensuring that the flow of credit to small and medium-sized businesses continues, as it must do as we go into the recovery phase of the economy.

[Baroness Wheatcroft]

My Lords, the noble Lord, Lord Myners, referred to the march of the myth-makers. Does the Minister agree with me that perhaps the biggest myth was that we had done away with boom and bust? As a result of that, what we are paying in interest on our debt is more than what we are spending on education, and that is with interest rates at the low level that plan A had assumed. What does the Minister think will happen to those interest rates if we do not stick to plan A?

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, I dread to think what would happen to interest rates. The interest rates on our 10-year money have stayed rock solid. They are slightly down today, at below 2.3 per cent. Where is Italy? It is north of 7 per cent. Every 1 per cent increase in our interest rates would cost this country £21 billion or £22 billion. To look at it another way, by keeping our interest rates below the levels which were forecast by the OBR only in March this year at the time of the Budget, we have saved £21 billion or £22 billion on our interest bill, money that can be much better spent on our public services. I dread to think where we would be, but it would be in horrendous territory.