Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026

Debate between Baroness Stedman-Scott and Lord Davies of Brixton

Tuesday 10th February 2026 Grand Committee

[Lord Davies of Brixton (Lab)]

I thank my noble friend the Minister for presenting the regulations. I will make a brief grouse that one of the sets of regulations we are debating was not on the table, and it was not even in the Royal Gallery. I know it is only three pages, but it should have been there, so I hope some action will be taken to make sure that it does not become a habit.

I have a couple of questions for my noble friend the Minister. One of the things that annoys me about current debates on pensions is when people fail to clarify or acknowledge that the triple lock applies only to part of the state pension.

Although the basic pension, or the new state pension, has increased by 4.8%, almost all of the rest of the other elements that go towards the total amount that people receive is being increased by 3.8%, so the average increase across the board will be somewhere between 3.8% and 4.8%. I feel it particularly personally because my own state pension will be going up by 4.2%; those of you who are any good at algebra will be able to work out what my state pension is from that simple fact. My question for my noble friend the Minister is: what is the average increase in the state pension across the board for all recipients? It is certainly not 4.8%, and it will not be 3.8%. It will be somewhere in the middle. I have not given notification of this question, so I would be quite happy to receive an answer in writing, but it is a very relevant figure that we should make sure people understand.

My second question arises from the accompanying document: the report from the Government Actuary on the uprating. On page 16 of the report, there are projections for the fund up to 2030-31. We see here that the balance in the fund at the end of the year is increasing from £89.6 billion in the current year and more than doubles over a period of five years to £163.7 billion. This is a relevant figure when we are told that state pensions are too expensive and at a time when the fund from which those pensions are paid is building up increasing balances.

Another relevant comparison is that, in the coming year, the balance at the end of the year as a percentage of benefit payments is 59% and, by the end of this five-year period, will have increased to 89%. This compares with the expectation—or a sort of target, though not a statutory target—that the balance should more typically be something like 17%. We are building up very substantial balances in the National Insurance Fund. Many people nowadays do not take the National Insurance Fund seriously at all, but I believe that it is a real fund; it is accounted for separately. I really want to know this: do the Government have a long-term plan for the balance to be held in the National Insurance Fund?

This has arisen, of course, because successive Governments have come to regard national insurance contributions as simply a way of raising additional revenue; I have made this point when we have discussed contribution rates in the past. This is the only figure we get that actually shows how contributions are affecting the National Insurance Fund. The Government need to explain it in a bit more detail to us again. I would be interested in what my noble friend the Minister says initially, but, again, a written explanation of the Government’s policy in relation to the size of the balance in the National Insurance Fund would be a relevant factor to take into account when discussing the affordability of national insurance benefits.

[Baroness Stedman-Scott (Con)]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for introducing these orders in her usual detail. I will speak to both: the draft Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026 and the draft Guaranteed Minimum Pensions Increase Order 2026. Although they are being debated together today, they are fundamentally different instruments raising distinct policy issues. It is therefore right that they are addressed separately, so I will begin with the draft Guaranteed Minimum Pensions Increase Order.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Davies of Brixton (Lab)]

This is neither the opportunity nor the time to have a debate on the Pensions Act 2011, but the cap on GMPs was limited to 3% because the state took over the responsibility for paying increases on private pensions in excess of 3%. However, under the coalition Government’s legislation amending pensions, those increases were, in effect, lost. The noble Baroness expresses surprise, but we have to go back to the legislation introducing the new state pension, which was introduced by the coalition Government. In doing so, they took away the state’s obligation to pay increases in excess of 3%, so any obligation to pay anything more than 3% is solely on the state, not the employer. It would not be appropriate to suggest that the employer should pay increases over the 3% level because it was the state’s responsibility, but the coalition Government took it away.

[Baroness Stedman-Scott (Con)]

I appreciate the noble Lord’s intervention. I will read Hansard. We will write to the noble Lord and start some correspondence on that issue. I appreciate the points made by the noble Lord. Everybody knows that he knows what he is talking about and that he is well versed in pensions legislation. If he is happy for me to do so, I will pick that point up with my colleagues.

I turn to the draft Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026. The shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Helen Whately, has rightly led calls for the Government to move more quickly and clearly in setting out their plans for welfare reform. Sickness and disability benefits alone are forecast to cost the taxpayer £100 billion by 2030. The shadow work and pensions team has consistently argued that the Government are failing to confront the structural drivers behind rising welfare expenditure. Delays in doing so carry a cost not only to the public finances but in missed opportunities to redirect spending towards other pressing government priorities.

It is extraordinary that the Timms review has only just agreed the names of the committee members appointed for a review that Stephen Timms is leading into sickness benefits, including with group members representing the disabled. The work has not yet begun. It is nearly two years after the general election, so can the Minister confirm that his committee is on track to give an interim review this spring? Can she also confirm that it will indeed be 2027 before his committee reports and that, by then, no progress will have been made in this Parliament, allowing for likely legislation following a government response?

These concerns sit alongside the wider economic impact of Labour’s jobs tax. The Autumn Budget 2024, in particular the increase in employer national insurance contributions, has been associated with the loss of an estimated 50,000 full-time equivalent jobs. This has implications for not only employment levels but the long-term health of the National Insurance Fund. The difficulty with this draft order is one not purely of substance but of process. The instrument uprates pensions and working-age benefits together, leaving no scope to consider the appropriateness of each element independently or to debate the Government’s policy intentions for each in detail.

Rather than dwell further on the procedural constraint, it is worth noting that the issues raised by this uprating instrument sit alongside the Government’s announcement yesterday on universal credit reform and the legislation now laid before Parliament. Taken together, they speak to the direction of travel in welfare policy and the assumptions underpinning the current uplift. The Government argue that these reforms are intended to rebalance the benefits system, to address perverse incentives and to support more people into work. We are told that the current gap between health-related universal credit payments and the standard allowance discourages labour market participation, and that narrowing this gap for new claimants is necessary to restore fairness and sustainability.

I therefore have a number of questions for the Minister. First, what assessment has been made of the behavioural impact of introducing a significantly lower health element for new claimants? Secondly, although existing claimants and those with severe or lifelong conditions are protected, how confident are the Government that the criteria used to determine severity are sufficiently robust, consistent and fair across the system? Thirdly, the Government have announced £3.5 billion in employment support alongside the expansion of pathways to work advisers. How will success be measured? Will outcomes be judged by sustained employment, earnings progression or reductions in case loads, and over what period?

Finally, the Government expect these reforms to deliver savings of £950 million by 2030-31. Do those projections assume stable labour market conditions? What sensitivity analysis has been undertaken should employer demand weaken further? I hope that the Minister sees the link and will be happy to answer these questions.

Pension Schemes Bill

Debate between Baroness Stedman-Scott and Lord Davies of Brixton

Committee stage
Wednesday 14th January 2026 Grand Committee

[Lord Davies of Brixton (Lab)]

The noble Baroness cited a particular case and gave considerable detail about the circumstances. Is there any reason why the Committee cannot be told which authority it concerns? As things stand, there is no way that I or any other Member of the Committee could comment on that case. If the noble Baroness can tell us which authority it is, in the interest of transparency, I urge her to do so.

[Baroness Stedman-Scott (Con)]

I have always been a supporter of transparency. I do not know the answer to the noble Lord’s question, but I will find out and let him know either the name of the council or the reason why I cannot give it to him. We have other examples that we are happy to share. I hope that answers the noble Lord’s question. I beg to move.

[Lord Davies of Brixton (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to take part in this debate. It is an important issue and public money should always be open to scrutiny and deep thought about how we approach these issues. The noble Baroness, in introducing the amendments, quoted the significant switch round in the financial state of the Local Government Pension Scheme. She will be able to have an interesting discussion with her former colleagues, Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, as to why exactly that has happened. They have had more influence on it probably than the actuarial profession.

My message essentially is, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. What we have here is the Official Opposition attempting to make a crisis out of a significant success. The Local Government Pension Scheme has been successful, as attested to by the noble Lord, Lord Fuller, yet here we are being presented with it as if there is some crisis to address. We should recognise that, in actuarial terms, the financial management of the scheme has been a significant success. It is up to those suggesting reviews—two in this group of amendments and two more in the following group, which should more accurately be here—to explain, rather than providing anonymous details, what the problem is.

The context is that, compared to private sector funded schemes, where contributions have been increasing, what we are going to see in the coming year is the opportunity of significant cost reductions. This is for two reasons. First, it is because of the successes of Local Government Pension Scheme investments, with returns of around 9% per annum since the last valuations. As a result, that has generated significant surpluses—significant excess of assets over liabilities. I shall come back to that in a later group. Following the latest set of triennial valuations, substantial reductions will be available. It is up to individual authorities to make their decisions, but the opportunity will be there, certainly for most funds.

As far as actuaries who support and work within the local government sector are concerned, as I explained on Monday, this discussion comes as a bolt from the blue. What we really need in this area is stability. It would be far better to promote discussion first within the sector, with those who know what they are talking about, before producing these proposals, which inevitably lead to uncertainty.

It is not a surprise, given the environment we are in, that there has been no consultation on this, unlike the investment changes, because it is part of a programme that we see with amendments submitted later in this Bill. There are some people who just do not like successful collective pension provision. There is an agenda at work here. As I say, I do not oppose consideration of the issues, but we should understand where it is coming from.

It is important to understand that the last valuations were in 2022. The current valuations, as at 31 March last year, are under way and we do not yet have the full results. Early results have been provided and we know the direction of travel, but we do not know the final results, which is why I question the figures being quoted. We do not yet know the results over the sector as a whole of the current series of valuations. Any speculation about that outcome misses the point.

The second point I want to make is that there is no one-size-fits-all solution to the funding of local government pension schemes. They vary widely in their size. The staff membership has to be taken into account, and that varies, and you also have to understand that some of these funds have significant numbers of non-local government members through the admitted body process and each of those has to be assessed in a proper way. There is no way you can have a one-size-fits-all approach to the actuarial management of these funds. You need the professional knowledge and judgment of actuaries—you may think I am promoting my own profession—to decide what is the best approach.

Clearly, that judgment should be open to review and, of course, it has been reviewed. That is what is so nonsensical about these proposals. Under Section 13 of the Public Service Pensions Act 2013, the Government can ask for reviews of the funded public service schemes, which effectively means local government schemes. Indeed, such a review has been carried out and a full detailed report produced by the Government Actuary, setting out the approach that has been adopted, comparing the different approaches—there are four firms of actuaries, which all have slightly different approaches—reconciling them and judging the assumptions that have been made.

Broadly speaking, the Government Actuary has given these valuations a clean bill of health. Therefore, any suggestion that there is anything wrong about the actuarial approach that is being taken is denied by the Government’s own actuarial adviser. Funds need to take account of local needs and public interest has a role in deciding how services can be employed in these funds. There is no question of refund in these funds, but the way in which it affects contributions is crucial.

Another point, which I think the noble Baroness ignored, is that these funds are all subject to the cost- capping arrangements set out in the coalition Government’s review of public service pensions of 14 or 15 years ago. There is a cost cap. I made a note of what the noble Baroness said: that the full cost of the contributions “bears on the employers”. That is just wrong. It bears on the employers and the members together. It is the employers’ costs that are capped under legislation and it is the members who bear the risk of increasing costs and stand to enjoy the benefit of reducing costs. The cost cap is crucial in these schemes and to ignore its important role fails to understand what we are doing. I am sorry—I could go on, but I think the situation is clear.

There was just one other point—I will go on. It arises under the next group and it is the idea of a statutory funding standard. Of course, we tried that with private sector pension schemes and it was a disaster. Everyone agreed it was a disaster and we had to have a new system—whether the new system was any better is a matter for debate. However, the idea of having a statutory funding standard just did not work.

To conclude—I hope it is a conclusion this time—there is no evidence that the existing system has failed. Indeed, we expect to see the benefits of the current approach when we decide what these funds should be in the light of the forthcoming valuation results.

Pension Credit

Debate between Baroness Stedman-Scott and Lord Davies of Brixton

Monday 4th November 2024 Lords Chamber

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department for Work and Pensions (Baroness Sherlock) (Lab)]

My Lords, the Government want all eligible pensioners to apply for pension credit. The Government have written to pensioners providing advice about claiming pension credit following the change to the winter fuel payment, alongside a range of other creative media campaigns. We are engaging directly with pensioners as well as with stakeholders, including devolved Governments, councils and charities, in a joint effort to raise awareness through our combined networks and channels.

[Lord Davies of Brixton (Lab)]

My Lords—

[Baroness Stedman-Scott (Con)]

I say to the noble Lord: feel free. Having run a pension credit campaign, I can understand what the Minister is undertaking. Do the Government intend to guarantee that the DWP has the capacity to deal with what could well be a rapid uptake of applications for pension credit—with all the extra administration needed to process the claims —after this Government’s shameful decision to deprive pensioners who need it most of their winter fuel payment?