Pensions Bill

Baroness Sherlock Excerpts

Monday 16th December 2013 Grand Committee

[Lord Kirkwood of Kirkhope (LD)]

My Lords, I would like to add a more operational note to the questions raised by the important amendment from the noble Baroness, Lady Turner of Camden. She makes a powerful case, but the financial circumstances suggest to me that there is more likelihood of eventually getting into the position that was explained by the noble Baroness, Lady Hollis, than she was suggesting.

The implication of the amendment is that it would extend the single-tier pension to all pensioners. I have some questions about the operational capacity of the system to deliver sensibly some of these significant changes. In the first place, the Green Paper suggested that we should be looking at this by 2017. That has been brought forward; there are obvious advantages to that but it has caused some people to raise questions with me. Some of that is informed by the current controversy about the efficacy of the systems for universal credit, which are of course of a different order in terms of the IT systems. It also has to be acknowledged that the Pension Service has a very good record of implementing some of this stuff; when pension credit came in, it was done in a way that got very high marks from the National Audit Office, as I recall. So it may be that everything is going to be fine, but if the national insurance records are not all clean data then we could be facing some serious difficulties in delivering the payment of pensions on time. There are other operational matters that I am sure are concerning people at Longbenton in Newcastle, as they should be.

Speaking for myself, I would be very pleased to get some kind of assurance at some stage in Committee that with regard to this huge and significant change, affecting a number of very vulnerable households, the department, having regard to the recent reductions in staff and all the other matters, is in place to be able to deliver this efficiently and on time in the way that is proposed.

[Baroness Sherlock (Lab)]

My Lords, in speaking to Amendments 1 and 2, I look forward to a productive time in Grand Committee. I assure the Minister that there will be cross-party consensus over the direction of travel; this very much carries on the direction that Labour took in government, and I look forward to being able to debate the detail. This first group has already highlighted a number of the issues that we are going to want to explore over the next few weeks. The point about cost made by the noble Lord, Lord Flight, and my noble friend Lady Hollis is an important one, and I hope that the Minister will be able to give us an indication of both the cost of bringing all these people into the system but also the cost drivers that might help us to understand better my noble friend’s point. If he could cost her ingenious scheme before we got to the end of this stage of the Bill, that would also be very helpful.

The point made by the noble Lord, Lord Kirkwood, about operational issues is going to become very important. There are amendments later on in which we will begin to explore how the department will communicate with people, and that will surface many of those issues. The Minister may want to be prepared before we get to that stage.

I, too, have heard concerns from all kinds of people. I know that Age Concern has been very worried; it has been getting letters, e-mails and phone calls from people who are anxious about the fact that they will not get this new pension that they have read so much about. One of the requirements on the Government from a very early point is going to be to try to manage their communication better, as I will say later on when we come to discuss information. The Select Committee found a huge amount of confusion among the public about who would get what and when. It is not surprising, therefore, that people are as anxious as they are.

Will the Minister reassure the Committee that the Government are alive to the concerns of those who have already reached state pension age or will do so before implementation, and will carry on listening? Will they consider the impact on those pensioners as the system is brought in? Will the Government, maybe at the next Committee day, take the opportunity to explain to us the impact of the new amendments tabled in the wake of the autumn Statement? That could be helpful, and we could look at it later this week.

Will the Minister help the Committee to reflect on the position of those who retire before implementation on modest incomes? Will he clarify that those who have saved with the second state pension or its predecessors will find that any amount they get in future which is above the single-tier pension is in fact uprated only by CPI? There is a perception that everybody before the transition gets one thing and everybody after it gets another, when in fact, as we will unfold, it is going to be a lot more complicated than that.

Is the Minister concerned at all about the distributional impact for those in that area of modest earnings? He will know that S2P is distributive because it treats anyone earning between the lower earnings limit of £5,668 and the lower earnings threshold of £15,000 as though they earn £15,000. That distributive element is quite important in protecting those on modest incomes and making sure that they can save for the future.

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[Baroness Sherlock]

My Lords, I wonder if I could just follow up on a couple of points. I thank the Minister for that response and I understand that, certainly at a £10 billion a year price tag, this would be a challenging reform to adopt. Could I ask him—I may have missed it and I apologise if I did—to respond to my questions about pension credit and passported benefits? If the Government are not going to able to bring existing pensioners into the new system can he give us a categorical assurance that pension credit will last throughout, and if so that the passported benefits on the back of that will come?

[Lord Freud]

My Lords, we are not changing the existing system for people who are on that system. Therefore that system, with the way that pension credit is set up, will not change for those people.

[Baroness Sherlock]

Forgive me, but may I therefore invite the Minister to put it this way: the Government have no plans to end savings credit, change its current value or change access to benefits currently passported on it?

[Lord Freud]

My Lords, I am happy so to confirm. As I say, for existing pensioners we have no plans to make any changes to the way that pension credit works. I have got a little bit more information. The cost of £10 billion is to get everyone on to single tier, and that is the cost to get all current pensioners to the illustrative £144 per week. I can confirm that cost is £10 billion per annum. This is a figure taken at 2016 and clearly that would reduce over time. The other issue that we discussed as we went through this was the 75% of people who see a change of less than £5 a week: this is not an average and most people will see only a small change compared to the current system.

[Baroness Hollis of Heigham]

I will first follow up on my noble friend’s point on savings credit. The Minister says that it will remain unchanged, but given that it is going to be CPI uprated, where the guaranteed pension credit is earnings related, at what point does the Minister expect savings credit to no longer exist because the guarantee has caught up with it? Therefore, although it is technically true that there will be no changes none the less it is surely also true that, X period of time on, given assumptions about inflation and so on, savings credit will in practice no longer exist.

[Baroness Sherlock]

I thank my noble friend. I think that when the Minister comes to read Hansard, he may notice that I asked him to confirm that its value would not change and I am sure that he meant to clarify the level rather than the value. One of the reasons is that, since they came to power, the Government have frozen the maximum level at which savings credit can be obtained. I wonder whether they intend to carry that on, in which case would we find that its value did, in fact, diminish.

[Lord Flight]

I am sorry to bother the Minister but is the £10 billion figure what I call gross or net? The key issue is that many older pensioners who would not otherwise qualify will qualify for various forms of income support in whatever is left of pension tax credits, and there really is a need to net all those projected costs off if they are not covered in the £10 billion to see what the actual net extra cost is. If, in that exercise, the Government discovered that the cost was much less than that, then I think this is something that could be thought about.

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I do not accept the Government’s argument. This cohort of women is not gaining a lower pension but for two years longer compared to men, which in government eyes sort of evens things out. On the contrary, the pension credit rules have given protection to men—no cliff edges—which is now effectively denied to women. As that protection for men falls away as women’s pension age rises, it offers savings which, so far as I can tell, would substantially finance this amendment. That is fair, realistic and affordable; I hope that the Minister agrees and will think again. I beg to move.

[Baroness Sherlock]

My Lords, I shall speak to Amendments 4A and 6, which are in my name and that of my noble friend Lord Browne of Ladyton. Amendment 6 is a probing amendment that would require the Government to conduct a review to determine whether all the women born on or after 6 April 1951 should be included in the scope of the new state pension arrangements. Amendment 4A—I apologise for its late tabling—would require a detailed assessment of the impact on those women who benefit as a result of derived entitlements.

We on these Benches will use the device of asking for reviews more than once in this Committee. I have said already that we are very supportive of the aims of the Bill and regard its direction of travel as continuing the work that we began in government. Labour understands the challenges of reform on this scale and the potential fiscal implications of some of the changes that many people will want to see to the system. However, we need to understand precisely what the implications will be and what the impact of these changes will be on different categories of people who will be affected by them. I have been very grateful to officials for doing their best to provide us with information, and I thank the Minister for giving us access to them and to it. However, it has still not always proved possible or straightforward to understand the impact of these changes on particular categories of people, and this cohort of women is a prime example.

It is our role in this House during Committee to try to get to the bottom of the detail of the impact of these Bills, and I hope very much that this review would enable the Government to do that. However, maybe the Minister can give us the information that would make that unnecessary. Despite the goal of a simpler system, there is still a lot of complexity in the system, as we have already heard—often, inevitably, in the transitional provisions. However, we will need to understand what the impact will be.

I have received a great deal of correspondence on this issue, as I am sure other noble Lords have, from individual campaigners and organisations concerned about the position of women born between April 1951 and April 1953, and my noble friend Lady Hollis has set out a range of concerns about their position. The headline concern that has been raised most often with me posits the position of a pair of male and female twins, born on the same date in that window, who are treated differently. The man will get the new single-tier pension and the woman will not, even if both have worked for 35 years or more or even if both of them are still working, with the woman having deferred her pension. My noble friend made the important point that unemployed men are treated effectively as if they are retired and get the equivalent to the amount that the woman would receive in pension. Those women are caught in the equalisation of the pension age. They say that they do not object to the equalisation but they feel that they have lost out in comparison with other women because, unlike women born before April 1951, they could not retire at 60 on a full pension. Those born after April 1953 get the full STP at the age of 63—that is, up to one year and 10 months earlier than men born after April 1953.

At Second Reading my noble friend Lady Donaghy gave a moving account of the life courses of many women of that age and the extent to which the way they are treated by society and the state has changed so markedly over their lifetimes; they really are a transitional generation. Whatever the Government finally decide, it is important that Parliament and the Government listen to their concerns before making a decision that they cannot be included.

We acknowledge that a line must be drawn somewhere but there are some questions to which I have not yet had satisfactory answers. First, as my noble friend Lady Hollis noted, there is the position of men born between 1951 and 1953 who are unemployed and get treated as if they were pensioners. Currently, a man in that situation who cannot claim the state pension, where a woman of the same age would, can get pension credit. Will the Minister confirm that that is the case? If so, the question has been raised with me as to whether these women have a claim in law on equality grounds and, if so, what that would mean. It might be helpful if the Minister could tell us whether the Government have sought legal advice on this matter and, if so, have they been assured that their position is safe? I assume that they were or the Minister would not have felt able to sign the habitual statement at the start of the process, but it would be helpful to clarify that.

The second big issue was the impact on this particular cohort of women. From having read the proceedings in another place, I think that the Government’s case is this: there are always cliff edges; there are always winners and losers and these are just the unlucky ones; these women will already be pensioners and some will have been able to draw their pension before 2016; they can always exercise the right to defer drawing down their pension and get a 10% uplift each year, which would effectively bring them up to the STP level by 2016; and only 70,000 of those 700,000 women born between 1951 and 1953 will be worse off, and the median loss will be only £6 a week.

The response of the campaigners to that case is this: some people will lose more than £6 a week, but even £6 a week is a lot of money, especially for 25 years. They are getting their pension earlier, but over their lifetime they will be disadvantaged. I would be grateful if the Minister could confirm that that was the case and, if so, when the break-even point comes, since they could be expected to live for a further 10 to 15 years and in some cases many more, we hope.

Thirdly, the campaigners say that most women spend most of their working lives expecting to retire at 60, so this is a shock to them. Finally, they point out that not many people can afford to defer taking their pensions. The figures that were supplied to us by the department suggest that only 0.9 million people in Great Britain get an increment as a result of deferral, as against 10.8 million who do not. I think that the figure in total was 1.2 million. If that is the case, inevitably it is a minority activity. Effectively, therefore, the right to defer your retirement date is a bit like the right to shop in Harrods: we can all do it but we cannot all afford to do it, so I am not sure that that totally answers the question.

That leaves us with some unanswered questions which I invite the Minister to address. First, there seems to be agreement that 70,000 women from this cohort will lose out. I do not yet understand the Government’s case for saying that they are so confident that the other 630,000 will be better off remaining in the current arrangements. The Government claimed in the other place that most women would be better off under STP. In the Committee there, the Pensions Minister said that, in the first few years, 700,000 women would be better off on STP by an average £9 a week. The impact assessment says that, as a result of the STP valuation, around 650,000 women who reach state pension age in the first 10 years after implementation will get an average £8 more in state pension in 2013-14 earnings terms.

The question then is this: how is the cohort of women born from 1953 to 1960, to whom those figures refer, so different from those born from 1951 to 1953? In other words, if the people who just get in will be better off in the new system, why would the people who just miss out be worse off? I hope that the Minister can explain to me the reason for that.

I want to drill down into this. The only reasons that I can think of come in the form of questions. First, the Government say that 30,000 people will lose from the derived entitlements post 2016. Can the Minister tell us how many of this cohort—that is those 1951 to 1953 women—would have derived entitlements? If not, perhaps he would smile upon our Amendment 4A. Secondly, some divorced couples with pension-splitting arrangements might be worse off under STP. Does the Minister know how many of those are within that 630,000? Thirdly, do most of those women have 30 years’ national insurance credits? Is that a factor? How many of them would have enough to get access to a full single-tier pension? Fourthly, how many of those women are better off as a result of their getting pension savings credit? What might happen in the future given the direction of travel on that?

My final question is about the costings. In Committee in another place, the Minister suggested that the costs for bringing this group into the system would be an initial £150 million a year, peaking at £300 million, and cumulatively costing about £4 billion. I am not an economist so I am not disputing the figures, but I do not understand them. If only 70,000 women are worse off and by a mean £6 a week, I make that—admittedly, using my calculator—£21 million a year. Even if they live for 25 years after retirement, I cannot get that above half a billion pounds. I am not suggesting that that is a small sum, nor offering to spend it; I am just trying to understand why I am so far out from the costings given by the Minister in the other place. I apologise for asking so many questions, but this is a complicated matter. Before we make any decisions and before the Government are to proceed on this, we need to understand the implications.

[Lord Paddick (LD)]

My Lords, as the noble Baroness, Lady Sherlock, said previously, there is great confusion among the public about the consequences of the Bill. I have to confess that that includes me. I, too, am feeling my way here rather than making authoritative statements.

The noble Baroness, Lady Hollis of Heigham, spoke about the men between 60 and 65 who are treated as pensioners because they are unemployed. I presume that that is a small proportion of men in that cohort and that the overwhelming majority have to wait until 65 to receive their pension, as opposed to those men who are unemployed during that period. Therefore, the statement that all men are treated the same as women applies only if they become unemployed, if I understand the situation correctly.

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[Baroness Sherlock]

On that point, have the Government therefore costed what might happen if they simply included this group in the system and not allowed them to choose?

[Lord Freud]

I will have to write with that estimate. There is every way of doing these estimates that one can imagine. That brings me to the amendment tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Sherlock, and the noble Lord, Lord Browne, which is to review how many women in this cohort are projected to derive a pension based on their spouse’s record. We have published a paper on derived entitlement, which covers the projected outcomes for people as a result of removing these provisions. As one may expect, individuals reaching pension age in the few years before April 2016 will have similar national insurance records to those reaching pension age in the few years after April 2016. As such, we can assume that the proportion of women in the cohort under question retiring under the current system who benefit from derived entitlement is broadly similar to the proportion of women reaching pension age just after 2016 who may be disadvantaged.

[Lord Freud]

My Lords, it is now in Hansard. We will spend some time on derived entitlement in later clauses, rather than going through that issue now. We will, I know, spend an awful lot of time on derived entitlement thanks to a certain set of amendments from the noble Baroness, so I have no fear at all that I will not be utterly explicit on this matter before the end of this Committee.

At Second Reading, the noble Baroness, Lady Sherlock, recognised that a line had to be drawn somewhere, but she asked the House to think carefully about whether it is right that twins of different genders should find themselves in different positions. Equally, one could ask whether it would be fair for people who reach state pension age on the same day—for example, the 65 year-old man and the 61 year-old woman—to be in different positions. The noble Baroness, Lady Sherlock, is absolutely right that a line has to be drawn. We have been clear and consistent that only people reaching pension age after the new system is implemented may receive a single-tier pension.

The noble Baroness asked whether these women would lose out. It is not a question of this particular cohort losing out; they simply will not receive a single-tier pension, just like everyone else reaching pension age before 2016. The Government have not changed these women’s state pension age and so there has not been a change in the pension that these women were expecting. Regarding the leading question on discrimination raised by the noble Baroness, I can confirm that any difference in treatment is as a result of the legislation providing for the change in pension age, which is not in this Bill, and we are satisfied that there is no breach of Article 14 of the ECHR on grounds of sex. This is justifiable in helping to pursue legitimate aims and achieving them in a timely way to achieve an equality of state pension outcomes between men and women generally.

[Baroness Sherlock]

I am trying to address these questions as I go, otherwise I will forget them. Does that legal advice also cover domestic law?

[Lord Freud]

That legal advice covers the full gamut of the legal position. On pension sharing, the average number of share orders is currently running to around 100 a year, so there is in practice a negligible impact on the gains and losses. We have written to all the cohorts affected by equalisation—

[Lord Freud]

I can confirm what the noble Baroness says: I am talking about the additional pension, not the state pension.

To summarise: the women in this group are getting the pension that they expected when they expected it. We have produced analysis on this group of women as well as on the impact of changes to derived entitlement. We need a clear start for the changes and, in line with the 2010 reforms, believe that that should be based on reaching state pension age. I urge the noble Baroness to withdraw her amendment.

[Baroness Sherlock]

Before my noble friend responds, I think that the Minister has ticked off all my questions and said that in fact these were incidental in terms of differences between the 1951-53 group and the 1953-60 group. Given that, I wonder if he could come back to the question that I posed: how is it, then, that those who retire in the first 10 years after implementation are apparently mostly going to be better off, whereas those in this group immediately before that will actually be worse off if they move on to the new system?

[Lord Freud]

It will be easier if I push that analysis of the figures into the letter-writing process rather than trying to summarise it off the top of my head, because it is quite complicated.

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[Baroness Greengross]

My amendment is about a public education programme, which is necessary as so many people are in the same position, as has been outlined in noble Lords’ statements. Amendment 30 seeks to ensure that individuals are made aware of both their responsibilities and expected outcomes here; for example, in terms of state pension contribution years and amounts, and what outcomes they can expect and when. Given longer life expectancy and extended working patterns, it is not unreasonable to increase the number of national insurance contributory years from 30 to 35. People who have contributed for less than 35 years but for at least the minimum qualifying period of seven to 10 years are going to receive a proportion of the pension. However, it is absolutely critical that this change is clearly communicated to all individuals so that they can ensure that any years outside of work—for example, because of ill health or caring responsibilities—are counted as years of contribution and so that they can make appropriate private pension arrangements, should they wish to do so.

[Baroness Sherlock]

My Lords, these amendments relate to the crucial question of information. The Government have stressed at different stages of the Bill the move to reduce the complexity of the state pension to make sure that people understand their likely entitlement and are therefore incentivised to save enough to complement the support that they can expect from the state. This came up a lot when the Work and Pensions Select Committee looked into the matter. Citizens Advice, in its written evidence to the Select Committee, noted that a considerable complexity would remain in the system, mainly as a result of transitional provision. It accepted that as being unavoidable but said that:

“A commitment to a sustained communications programme could improve outcomes, manage expectations, minimise misinformation, promote action on NI contributions, and support personal saving for retirement”.

I think that was nicely put. The ABI said this to the Select Committee:

“Adequate communication of the change will be essential, or the clarity and simplicity of the new system could be undermined … No-one should feel unclear about the amount they will receive—and therefore need to save personally themselves”—

—a common view between the ABI and Citizens Advice.

The Select Committee noted that various witnesses focused on that issue. Sally West of Age UK said that,

“we are finding a lot of people are understandably confused”.

I think that that is an understatement. The Select Committee reported considerable confusion about the reforms. Many people wrongly believed that the introduction of the STP would mean that everyone would get £144 a week in state pension, because they did not understand the eligibility criteria. Others thought that there would be no means-testing at all; others thought that if they were due more under the current system, they would lose all that and get only what was due under the new system. The implications of having been contracted out or of not knowing whether you were contracted out or in was another area of confusion. It was noted that it was therefore important to,

“ensure that people have full information about their own future entitlement as well as a reasonable understanding of the reforms”.

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I shall make a point almost as an aside, but do so because it is something that I will probably come back to in a later debate. If private sector employees are going to meet the high national insurance contribution costs of both the employee and the employer through lower private pension benefit accrual, then what we are seeing is a transfer to the state system of pre-funded private saving rather than an actual gain for the individual. I accept that it is transferring a liability to the state and will reflect in the level of state pension that an individual gets but, in motive terms, I think that for some individuals overall it will not necessarily be seen as a gain. I would certainly be interested to hear the Minister’s comment on this use of gross and net state pension figures, and how that impacts the analysis of gainers and losers.

[Baroness Sherlock]

My Lords, I shall say very little. I am so keen to hear the answer to that last question that I shall race through my contribution even more so than normal.

My noble friend Lady Hollis has done the Committee a service by opening up the question of the level at which the single-tier pension will be set at introduction. Both she and my noble friend Lady Drake have drawn attention to the rather dusty view taken by different bodies of the Government’s refusal to do this.

The Work and Pensions Select Committee was very clear about the fundamental importance of the principle that the STP should be set above the level of pension credit. That is primarily about means-testing, and I was grateful to my noble friend Lady Hollis for making the point that, contrary to what one would think from some of the headline messages, the percentage-point reduction in means-testing is really very small, being somewhere between 2% and 3%. That is not very surprising. One of the notes that we were given explaining means-testing and single tier confirmed what I think a number of us had expected, which is that, while there is a small reduction in the number of pensioner households claiming guarantee credit—pension credit—a considerable part of the reduction in means-testing on pension credit relates to those who would have received savings credit. It has always been very easy to reduce the number of people involved in means-testing: just make benefits less generous or take them away faster. You simply reduce the level at which you can get them. Taking a benefit away from people may reduce means-testing; it is not in itself an achievement. More interesting is what the combined effect is.

The Government’s response to the Select Committee was to confirm that it was indeed a principle of the STP that it should be set above the standard minimum guarantee and would be thus set, and that Parliament would be able to debate it as the regulations would be affirmative. However, as my noble friend Lady Drake said, the Delegated Powers Committee pointed out that this is the first time that this is being set not in primary legislation but simply in regulations which cannot be amended. I confess that this is not an area of expertise—along with many things that I talk about—but I presume that the reason for this is that, when Parliament is debating the introduction of a new system, it is impossible to understand the implications for anybody involved unless one knows the level at which it will be introduced.

I spent the entire weekend, apart from a brief outing to the marvellous Durham Johnston Christmas concert, going through all the details trying to understand the impact on different people of all these changes. They are all predicated on the assumption that this will be set at £144. If that assumption proves to be untrue, or indeed if the triple lock proves not to be the case, then I have no idea what the impact will be or who the winners and losers will be, and all our debates today and in the many joyous weeks that we have to look forward to will be rather academic. Can the Minister be tempted to give us some level of clarity, at least about what the minimum level might be, in order that we can understand better the assumptions that the Government are making? I raised this question at Second Reading and, I have to say, got a rather dusty reply. The Minister said simply:

“We will need to decide that closer to implementation when the level of the pension credit standard minimum guarantee for 2016-17 is known. I am afraid that I cannot reveal all tonight”.—[Official Report, 3/12/13; col. 192.]

So I confess that it is not with a hopeful heart that I await the Minister’s response, but I await with fascination his response to my noble friend Lady Drake.

[Lord Freud]

I shall start with the question from the noble Baroness, Lady Hollis, referring to the previous amendment regarding men coming off guarantee credit. I commit to write to her with the data on the numbers coming off.

The central principle that these reforms represent is that the full amount of the single-tier pension will be above the basic level of the means-tested support for a single person. This provides a clear foundation for both private saving and automatic enrolment, and it builds on the broad cross-party consensus that has characterised the debate that there has been on pension reform: people need to save more, and to do that they need to know what they are going to get. The reforms are therefore not so much about spending more or less money on future pensioners but about restructuring the system to provide clarity and confidence to help people today to plan for their retirement.

In the White Paper, published in January 2013, we used an illustrative start rate of £144, which was above the minimum guarantee and forecast to stay within the projected spending on the current system. Every extra pound added to the start rate increases annual costs by £500 million in the 2030s. A start rate of 2% above the standard minimum guarantee would incur significant additional costs.

On the question from the noble Baroness, Lady Drake, on the narrowing of the gap between the standard minimum guarantee and the start rate of the single tier, the Green Paper said explicitly that the precise value of that start rate would need to be set at a level that met the affordability principle. The start rate that we will fix will need to be set closer to implementation, when the Government will be able to factor in both the 2016-17 level of the standard minimum guarantee and the latest economic and forecasting data.

The Committee will note that the regulations to set the start rate will be subject to affirmative resolution and will therefore be debated in this House. The noble Baronesses, Lady Drake and Lady Sherlock, asked why this is being done by affirmative resolution as opposed to in the Bill, as is the existing position. The different approach was flagged up by the DPRRC, although, interestingly, it did not recommend that we changed our legislative approach. That approach is consistent with recent legislation, such as establishing both the ESA and universal credit, and it is driven by not currently knowing what rate to use, given the enormous costs involved of getting that rate out even by a small amount from what it should be, relative to the means-tested level.

On contracting out, there is not a clear distinction between the people who are contracted in and contracted out. We estimate that even by the 2030s about 80% of people will have been contracted out at some point. The analysis we have done in the IA, as the noble Baroness, Lady Drake, pointed out, is based on the net state pension outcome, not the gross.

The stated intention of the Government is that the start rate should be above the standard minimum guarantee, and it is the Government’s intention that it should remain above the standard minimum guarantee into the future. That is why the Bill sets out that the single-tier pension will be uprated by at least earnings growth. There is flexibility in the legislation for discretionary above-earnings uprating, depending on the fiscal circumstances at the time.

I point out to noble Lords that where a couple both receive the full amount of single-tier pension, as a household they will receive almost a third more under the new system than the couples’ rate of the standard minimum guarantee. To promise a single-tier start rate at 2% above the basic level of means-tested support would mean that we could not guarantee that the reforms would be cost-neutral. With these reforms, we aim not to increase the amount spent on pensions but to provide clarity to support private saving.

On the question from the noble Baroness, Lady Sherlock, on the decrease in the numbers of those who are means-tested being driven by the end of savings credit, clearly the answer is yes, in part. However, that money is being used to provide the flatter state pension that is central to these reforms and it allows us to provide the single tier in a cost-neutral package, while simplifying the system. Although there is no Baroness Castle to barrack us from in front or behind, or wherever she did it, it clearly makes sense to go to a system that is less—or as little—reliant on means-testing as possible. This is the way to do that and I urge the noble Baroness to withdraw her amendment.

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[Lord Freud]

I will certainly be pleased to write on the thinking behind why it is net. As I say, I am not in a position to commit to anything on the gross figures at this stage, but I will set out the latest position in that area in that letter.

[Baroness Sherlock]

It would be very helpful if the Minister could write and confirm that it was net. It would also be helpful if he confirmed that the gross figures were not available to him and explain why not. It would be helpful if he could simply clarify why they are not available or why he does not have them.