European Union (Referendum) Bill

Debate between Baroness Quin and Lord Wigley

Friday 24th January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Quin]

I am grateful to my noble friend for clarifying that. It would be good to look before Report at the different views expressed on thresholds to see how the matter might be taken forward at a later stage, if indeed there is a feeling that it ought to be pursued.

Quite understandably in all the various debates about thresholds the concern has been that on issues of major importance people feel uncomfortable if the vote is decided by a very tiny margin on a very low turnout. That, of course, explains why there have been so many initiatives in the past about having thresholds in such legislation. Looking through the history of this I cannot discern any particular party affiliation to any one notion about any particular threshold. Looking at the amendments tabled in the past on referendums legislation, some have been tabled by Conservative Members in the other place, some by Labour Members and some by Liberal Democrat Members and, as I say, these issues have come up on practically all issues where a referendum has been proposed. In a way, we need to bear all this in mind when deciding how to move forward.

I was helped in my own thoughts about it by an excellent research note prepared by the House of Commons on thresholds in referendums, which gives a lot of food for thought. It could be food for thought that we ourselves could have before Report. I should say too that how we are looking at this issue is also very much part and parcel of political debate about referendums in other countries. The very good research note from the House of Commons looks at countries around the world—not only in the European Union but in Australia, for example, and in non-EU member states such as Switzerland—and it looks at the various requirements in those countries for thresholds in referendums.

At this stage, this is very much an opinion-gathering exercise in order that I and my fellow signatories may decide how we might pursue this issue later in our proceedings.

[Lord Wigley]

My Lords, my name is added to some, but not all, of these amendments. It appears that two important aspects are covered in different ways. The first is whether a threshold should be required for the outcome to have credibility. There are arguments both ways on that, and there are dangers. I do not need to remind my noble friend Lord Foulkes that in 1979 Scotland voted by a majority in favour of having a Scottish Parliament—or Assembly, as it was then called—with 33% voting yes and 31% voting no. However, because of the 40% threshold rule, it did not happen. My noble friend will be very aware of the consternation that that caused, with the feeling that a majority had been in favour.

It is very important to set a threshold at a level that is acceptable and which does not appear to be loaded one way or another. I suppose that a 25% threshold is an absolute minimum, but I should be very interested in hearing the response of the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, on this. Depending on what is said between now and Report, we will no doubt need to come back to refine these thoughts further.

The other element built into these amendments—which, grouped together, bring in different aspects—is the question of the results from the four nations of the United Kingdom. The noble Lord, Lord Kinnock, touched on this in an earlier debate. I put it to the Committee that there is a strong argument for each of the four constituent nations of the United Kingdom to know how they have voted. If they do not, assumptions will be made, and those assumptions may be the cause of much more political rancour than dealing with the reality of the situation. If Scotland votes yes and England votes no and the English vote dominates the rest of the United Kingdom, there will undoubtedly be pressures in Scotland, as my noble friend Lord Foulkes rightly said, to reopen the whole question of the independence referendum, assuming that it is not carried the first time round. We know what happened in Quebec when there was a rerun of a referendum: it came very much closer than had been the case on the first occasion. Therefore, these issues need to be thought about very carefully.

I come from a different viewpoint from virtually everybody else in the House with regard to the Scottish referendum but I recognise that, whichever point of view you come from, the outcome needs to be logical, transparent and acceptable, and I hope that we will work towards that in the context of these amendments.